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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Kimberley de Mar del Plata Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Kimberley de Mar del Plata 0–0 Huracán Las Heras
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c03c72d00e1f60b22f05e9d6dc86a8bd975c301e70adaf24e95549401a140e7c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3946,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Kimberley de Mar del Plata or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1397,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5346,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.66
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.66,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.87,
"market_odds": 1.66,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": -20.7,
"value_pct": -34.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata or Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata or Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 57.8,
"implied_prob": 19.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras Win",
"model_prob": 31.0,
"odds": 5.09
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 17.44,
"draw": 29.1,
"home": 53.46
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 18:01:46",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:32:35",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.46,
"gap_pp": -13.97,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.1,
"gap_pp": 0.38,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 17.44,
"gap_pp": 13.59,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.11,
"gap_pp": 12.09,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.89,
"gap_pp": -12.09,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.46,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.05,
"early": 3.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.1,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.09,
"early": 5.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 17.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 17.44,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.53,
"early": 2.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.11,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.89,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0214,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3886,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1902,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1269,
"implied_prob": 0.6114,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.582
},
"p_final": 0.41,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2815,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0325,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0325,
"implied_prob": 0.3886,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.41
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3008,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.1,
"text": "-30.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3575,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3575,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10471.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0162,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.375,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3912
},
"p_final": 0.3912,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1568,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0612,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6028
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2195,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.9,
"text": "+21.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2195,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10197.55,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2225,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.2,
"text": "-22.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0023,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"sort_key": 2199.816,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"alert_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.0,
"hero_label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"market_prob_pct": 53.5,
"market_team": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 70,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3575,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5795,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kimberley de Mar del Plata at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kimberley de Mar del Plata as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Kimberley de Mar del Plata \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.91 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606416 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.91 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +35.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2225,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.0,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"steam_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3575,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5795,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kimberley de Mar del Plata at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kimberley de Mar del Plata as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Kimberley de Mar del Plata \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.91 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606416 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.91 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +35.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2225,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kimberley de Mar del Plata 1.39 xG vs Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras 1.21 \u2192 Kimberley de Mar del Plata 39.5%",
"Market: Kimberley de Mar del Plata ~53.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras \u2193 -14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata, but sharp money moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.0,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"market_prob": 53.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.41,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.59,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"market_prob": 17.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.23,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.23,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.65,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.65,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"market_prob_pct": 53.46,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Kimberley de Mar del Plata\u0027s win probability at 53.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.0,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kimberley de Mar del Plata 1.39 xG vs Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras 1.21 \u2192 Kimberley de Mar del Plata 39.5%",
"Market: Kimberley de Mar del Plata ~53.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras \u2193 -14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata, but sharp money moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.0,
"hero_label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras odds shortened \u2193 -14.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, with odds shortening by 14.3%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Kimberley de Mar del Plata than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras \u2014 odds shortened by 14.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Kimberley de Mar del Plata than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, with odds shortening by 14.3%.",
"Buying interest on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras \u2014 odds shortened by 14.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Kimberley de Mar del Plata more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 14.3%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Kimberley de Mar del Plata higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.0,
"edge_pp": -14.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"market_prob_pct": 53.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.41,
"edge_pp": 0.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.59,
"edge_pp": 13.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"market_prob_pct": 17.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras \u2014 odds shortened by 14.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Kimberley de Mar del Plata (53.5%).",
"However, Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.3%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kimberley de Mar del Plata, Market \u2192 Kimberley de Mar del Plata, Recent sharp money \u2192 Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.24,
"closing_odds": 1.66,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.24,
"entry_odds": 1.66,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 35m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras (14.3%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.00",
"6.04",
"5.09"
],
"display": "7.00 \u2192 5.00 \u2192 6.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 35m",
"pick_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
7.0,
5.09,
6.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,9.4",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.09"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 7.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras \u2193 -14.3% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras \u2193 -14.3% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"open_odds": 7.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 70,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"open_odds": 7.0,
"pick_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"steam_score": 70,
"steam_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "huracan-las-heras",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"away_team_id": 2428,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2428.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"away_team_public_id": "0FaOI6d5i4iZDl",
"away_team_slug": "huracan-las-heras",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1606416,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"home_team_id": 3975,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3975.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"home_team_public_id": "0zL83C23aoP0ar",
"home_team_slug": "kimberley-mar-del-plata",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kimberley-mar-del-plata",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 18:00:00",
"public_id": "1XLA7inyIvStXx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Mar del Plata",
"venue_name": "Estadio Jose Antonio Valle"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1592,
"best_odd": 5.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0023,
"implied_prob": 0.1744,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1744,
"draw": 0.291,
"home": 0.5346
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.196
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2983,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.291,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1744,
"draw": 0.291,
"home": 0.5346
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2921
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4743,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0663,
"ev": -0.2225,
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1744,
"draw": 0.291,
"home": 0.5346
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4684
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.09,
"edge": 0.1138,
"ev": 0.5795,
"implied_prob": 0.1965,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.0331,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.2075,
"ev": -0.3444,
"implied_prob": 0.6024,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1902,
"alpha_yes": 0.1383,
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1565,
"edge_yes": 0.1565,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3008,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1269,
"ev_yes": 0.3575,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0325,
"implied_no": 0.6135,
"implied_yes": 0.3865,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1902,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1269,
"implied_prob": 0.6114,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.582
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0325,
"implied_prob": 0.3886,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.41
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.582,
"p_final_yes": 0.41,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1511,
"alpha_under": 0.2078,
"best_over_odd": 2.53,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1023,
"edge_under": -0.1023,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2195,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0612,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.132,
"implied_over": 0.3797,
"implied_over_mf": 0.375,
"implied_under": 0.6203,
"implied_under_mf": 0.625,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3912
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3912,
"p_final_under": 0.6028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3575,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5795,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3575,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3575,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5795,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kimberley de Mar del Plata at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kimberley de Mar del Plata as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Kimberley de Mar del Plata \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.91 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606416 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.91 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +35.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras, but the model still strongly favours Kimberley de Mar del Plata.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2225,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0663,
"ev": -0.2225,
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.3886,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1902,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1269,
"implied_prob": 0.6114,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.582
},
"p_final": 0.41,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0325,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0325,
"implied_prob": 0.3886,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.41
}
},
"edge": 0.1565,
"ev": 0.3575,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0162,
"market_prob": 0.375,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3912
},
"p_final": 0.3912,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0612,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6028
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1023,
"ev": 0.2195,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1606416,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3575,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2195,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2195,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"home": "Kimberley de Mar del Plata"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.194123,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3575,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2225,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606416,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T18:01:48.099850+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Torneo Federal A — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo de Bahía Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martín de Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia de Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley de Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio de Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino de Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atlético Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín de Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucumán Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia de Concepción del Uruguay | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Círculo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio de Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martín de Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atlético Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia de Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino de Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley de Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucumán Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo de Bahía Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia de Concepción del Uruguay | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín de Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Círculo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
