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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Al Kholood Al Riyadh ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.17
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Al Riyadh win · Al Riyadh 2–0 Al Kholood
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.543,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.507,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2725,
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"fair_odds_away": 1.84,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.67,
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"home_predicted_xg": 0.89,
"home_win_prob": 0.1845,
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"over_25_prob": 0.472,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.529
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Al Kholood",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Al Kholood",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Al Kholood"
},
"away_xg": 1.67,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Al Kholood",
"confidence": 54.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Al Kholood",
"edge": 0.0375,
"edge_gap": 0.2709,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5057,
"model_prob": 0.5432,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 54.3,
"draw": 27.2,
"home": 18.4
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Al Kholood"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.88
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.88,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Al Kholood Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.98,
"market_odds": 1.88,
"model_odds": 1.84,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": 1.2,
"value_pct": 2.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 81.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 58.9,
"no_prob": 50.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 49.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.67,
"home_expected": 0.89,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.9
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.5
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{
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"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Al Riyadh or Draw",
"prob": 45.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Al Riyadh or Al Kholood",
"prob": 72.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Al Kholood",
"prob": 81.6
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Al Kholood",
"pick_prob": 81.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 54.3,
"draw_pct": 27.3,
"home_pct": 18.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Al Kholood"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.56,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 47.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 52.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.56,
"under_prob": 52.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 2.2,
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Al Kholood Win",
"model_prob": 54.3,
"odds": 1.88
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Al Kholood",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 50.57,
"draw": 26.63,
"home": 22.8
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 18:00:53",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:31:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Al Riyadh",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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"gap_pp": -4.36,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 18.44
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.63,
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.24
},
{
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"gap_pp": 3.75,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 54.32
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.45,
"gap_pp": 1.65,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 47.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.55,
"gap_pp": -1.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
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"implied_early_pct": 22.8,
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{
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
"closing": 1.88,
"early": 1.88,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
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{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.45,
"kind": "ou_o"
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{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.55,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.0789,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 7.14,
"market_prob": 0.1401,
"market_prob_pct": 14.0,
"model_prob": 0.129,
"model_prob_pct": 12.9,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.89,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0023,
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.507,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5477,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.507,
"p_final": 0.5051
},
"p_final": 0.5051,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
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"value_side": "no",
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"alpha": 0.5477,
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"edge": -0.0023,
"ev": -0.0844,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.493,
"p_final": 0.4949
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0748,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.5,
"text": "+7.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0584,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0748,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 50.7,
"sort_key": 10067.32,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.3
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5951,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0074,
"edge_pp": -0.7,
"market_prob": 0.5404,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.528,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5418,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.4596,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4658
},
"p_final": 0.533,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0839,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0752,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5951,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.5404,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"p_final": 0.533
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0127,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0138,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.4,
"text": "+1.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0138,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 47.1,
"sort_key": 5211.04,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 52.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0093,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0093,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5432,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Al Kholood",
"sort_key": 1797.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 12.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +45.0%",
"alert_team": "Al Riyadh",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.35,
"hero_label": "Al Riyadh",
"market_prob_pct": 50.6,
"market_team": "Al Kholood",
"model_prob_pct": 54.3,
"model_team": "Al Kholood",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Kholood)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Kholood)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0748,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0748,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Kholood at 54.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Kholood as the value side (54.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Kholood",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Kholood).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5432,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.78"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.78
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8181818181818182,
"evidence": {
"score": 96,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.35,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.35,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.67,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 24.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.89,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.67,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.89 \u00b7 Away xG 1.67 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +24%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 45.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +45.0%",
"steam_team": "Al Riyadh",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Kholood)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Kholood)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0748,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0748,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Kholood at 54.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Kholood as the value side (54.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Kholood",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Kholood).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5432,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.78"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.78
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Riyadh 0.89 xG vs Al Kholood 1.67 \u2192 Al Kholood 54.3%",
"Market: Al Kholood ~50.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Al Riyadh odds \u2191 +45.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Al Kholood projects stronger on expected goals (+0.78 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.35,
"fair_prob": 18.45,
"label": "Al Riyadh",
"market_prob": 22.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.62,
"fair_prob": 27.25,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.73,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "Al Kholood",
"market_prob": 50.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.36,
"fair_prob": 47.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.46,
"fair_prob": 52.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.72,
"fair_prob": 49.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.72,
"fair_prob": 50.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.45,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Al Riyadh",
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Al Riyadh"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.35,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Al Kholood",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.7,
"model_prob_pct": 54.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Al Kholood \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Riyadh 0.89 xG vs Al Kholood 1.67 \u2192 Al Kholood 54.3%",
"Market: Al Kholood ~50.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Al Riyadh odds \u2191 +45.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Al Kholood projects stronger on expected goals (+0.78 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.35,
"hero_label": "Al Riyadh",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Al Riyadh odds lengthened \u2191 +45.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Al Riyadh.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Al Riyadh."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Al Riyadh (\u2191 +45.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/11) supports the current market view on Al Riyadh."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.35,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 27.0 pp (at 54.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 27.0,
"max_prob_pct": 54.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Al Riyadh",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.35,
"edge_pp": -4.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.45,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Al Riyadh",
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.62,
"edge_pp": 0.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.63,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.73,
"edge_pp": 3.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.3,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Al Kholood",
"market_prob_pct": 50.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Al Riyadh.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Al Kholood (50.6%).",
"However, Al Riyadh has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +45.0%, 9/11) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Al Kholood \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.98,
"closing_odds": 4.17,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.98,
"entry_odds": 4.17,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +55.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 55.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +48.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 48.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +48.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 48.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +45.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 45.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +43.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 43.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +39.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "9/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +45.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 45.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 37m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/11 books lengthened Al Riyadh together (45.0% drift, score 68) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 45.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.17",
"3.40",
"2.62"
],
"display": "4.20 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 3.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 37m",
"pick_team": "Al Riyadh",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
4.17,
3.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.17"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Al Riyadh odds \u2191 +45.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Al Riyadh",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Al Riyadh odds \u2191 +45.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +45.0%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Al Riyadh",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/11",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +45.0%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Al Riyadh",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_team_name": "Al Riyadh",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "al-kholood",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Al Kholood",
"away_team_id": 10509,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10509.webp",
"away_team_name": "Al Kholood",
"away_team_public_id": "3gd26PScEL41yU",
"away_team_slug": "al-kholood",
"country_code": "SA",
"country_display_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
"country_id": 135,
"country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
"fixture_id": 1603031,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
"home_team_display_name": "Al Riyadh",
"home_team_id": 10511,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10511.webp",
"home_team_name": "Al Riyadh",
"home_team_public_id": "04IYc8fb9crbDR",
"home_team_slug": "al-riyadh-10511",
"ht.home_team_slug": "al-riyadh-10511",
"league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
"league_country_display": "Saudi-Arabia",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Saud\u00ed",
"league_id": 307,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Saud\u00ed",
"league_public_id": "4QNZqJCRQhyNYA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 18:00:00",
"public_id": "08pdhXZnLaDavX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Riyadh",
"venue_name": "Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5662,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.0093,
"implied_prob": 0.5057,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5057,
"draw": 0.2663,
"home": 0.228
},
"model_prob": 0.5432,
"p_final": 0.527
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2973,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0018,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.2663,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5057,
"draw": 0.2663,
"home": 0.228
},
"model_prob": 0.2724,
"p_final": 0.2681
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"best_odd": 4.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0832,
"implied_prob": 0.228,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5057,
"draw": 0.2663,
"home": 0.228
},
"model_prob": 0.1844,
"p_final": 0.2198
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": 0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.5319,
"model_prob": 0.5432
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.0277,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.2724
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.17,
"edge": -0.0554,
"ev": -0.231,
"implied_prob": 0.2398,
"model_prob": 0.1844
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5477,
"alpha_yes": 0.5477,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0172,
"edge_yes": -0.0172,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0748,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0757,
"ev_yes": -0.0584,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0844,
"implied_no": 0.4898,
"implied_yes": 0.5102,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5477,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.507,
"p_final": 0.5051
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5477,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0023,
"ev": -0.0844,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.493,
"p_final": 0.4949
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.5051,
"p_final_yes": 0.4949,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5418,
"alpha_under": 0.5951,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.92,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.735,
"edge_over": 0.0036,
"edge_under": -0.0046,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0127,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0498,
"ev_under": 0.0138,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0752,
"implied_over": 0.4674,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4596,
"implied_under": 0.5326,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5404,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5418,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.4596,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4658
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5951,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.5404,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"p_final": 0.533
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4658,
"p_final_under": 0.533,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.56,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.507,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "no",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0748,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0748,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0748,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [],
"breakdown_resolved": [],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Kholood)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0748,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0748,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Kholood at 54.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Kholood as the value side (54.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Kholood",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Kholood).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5432,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.78"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.78
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.493,
"draw_prob": 0.2724,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5432,
"over_prob": 0.471,
"total_xg": 2.56,
"under_prob": 0.528,
"xg_diff": 0.78
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0748,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.507,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "no",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.0093,
"implied_prob": 0.5057,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5432,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Al Kholood"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5477,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0023,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.507,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5477,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.507,
"p_final": 0.5051
},
"p_final": 0.5051,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0757,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5477,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0023,
"ev": -0.0844,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.493,
"p_final": 0.4949
}
},
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": 0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"model_prob": 0.507,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5951,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.5404,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.528,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5418,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.4596,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4658
},
"p_final": 0.533,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0752,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5951,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.5404,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"p_final": 0.533
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": 0.0138,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1603031,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0748,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5432,
"draw": 0.2724,
"home": 0.1844
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.507,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4898,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.507,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Al Kholood",
"home": "Al Riyadh"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5432,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1603031,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T18:00:55.774750+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Profesional Saudí — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Al-Ittihad FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | NEOM | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Al Kholood | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Al-Ettifaq | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Al-Hazm | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Al Shabab | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Al-Faisaly FC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 7 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 18 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 7 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 7 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 12 |
| 5 | NEOM | 7 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Al-Ittihad FC | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 | Al Kholood | 7 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | Al-Ettifaq | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Al Diriyah | 7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Al-Hazm | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Al-Faisaly FC | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 15 | Abha | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 7 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Al Taawon | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 7 | 13.7 | 4.9 | +8.8 | 18 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 7 | 9.1 | 3.6 | +5.5 | 16 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | +5.4 | 16 |
| 4 | Al Kholood | 7 | 10.9 | 7.3 | +3.6 | 12 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | +1.8 | 12 |
| 6 | Al-Ittihad FC | 7 | 8.1 | 6.4 | +1.7 | 17 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 7 | 6.7 | 5.7 | +1.0 | 11 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 7 | 3.7 | 2.9 | +0.8 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Taawon | 7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | +0.4 | 3 |
| 10 | NEOM | 7 | 6.0 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 15 |
| 11 | Al Shabab | 7 | 6.8 | 7.6 | -0.8 | 4 |
| 12 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 4.5 | 6.9 | -2.4 | 3 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 7 | 3.3 | 6.0 | -2.7 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 7 | 4.2 | 7.2 | -3.0 | 5 |
| 15 | Abha | 7 | 4.4 | 8.2 | -3.8 | 2 |
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 3.4 | 8.5 | -5.1 | 8 |
| 17 | Al-Faisaly FC | 7 | 4.5 | 9.7 | -5.2 | 3 |
| 18 | Al-Fayha | 7 | 5.0 | 10.8 | -5.8 | 6 |
