Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Uttaradit Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.28
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Uttaradit 2–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "98bdb7c7b3d8a6baeecb7b45387481fa9832e36e9ecaed5b3abca9396eb2b5fa",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"away_win_prob": 0.3377,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.96,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.73,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3659,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Nong Bua Pitchaya and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Nong Bua Pitchaya"
},
"away_xg": 1.27,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Uttaradit",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0309,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3969,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.8,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 36.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.28
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.28,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Uttaradit Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.52,
"market_odds": 2.28,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": -7.2,
"value_pct": -16.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 71.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.27,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Uttaradit or Draw",
"prob": 66.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Uttaradit or Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"prob": 63.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Uttaradit or Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.8,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Uttaradit"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -16.5,
"implied_prob": 43.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Uttaradit Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 2.28
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.86,
"draw": 28.45,
"home": 39.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 10:59:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 10:29:12",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Uttaradit",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.69,
"gap_pp": -3.09,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.45,
"gap_pp": 1.19,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.86,
"gap_pp": 1.89,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.21,
"gap_pp": -5.01,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.79,
"gap_pp": 5.01,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.28,
"early": 2.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.18,
"early": 3.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.45,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.84,
"early": 2.84,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.86,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.21,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.79,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0097,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4715,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2303,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.5285,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5178
},
"p_final": 0.4813,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0101,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0615,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.4715,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4813
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0308,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.1,
"text": "+3.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0308,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10027.72,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.214,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.175,
"edge": 0.007,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4223,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.214,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.4223,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4293
},
"p_final": 0.4293,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0104,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0663,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0937,
"implied_prob": 0.5777,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.57
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.001,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1254,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.5,
"text": "-12.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0716,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Uttaradit",
"sort_key": 1782.1,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"alert_team": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.1,
"hero_label": "Uttaradit",
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"market_team": "Uttaradit",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Uttaradit",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Uttaradit)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Uttaradit)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0308,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Uttaradit at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Uttaradit as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Uttaradit",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Uttaradit).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1254,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.1,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.1,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"steam_team": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Uttaradit)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Uttaradit)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0308,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Uttaradit at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Uttaradit as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Uttaradit",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Uttaradit).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1254,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uttaradit 1.33 xG vs Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.27 \u2192 Uttaradit 36.6%",
"Market: Uttaradit ~39.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Nong Bua Pitchaya odds \u2191 +15.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Uttaradit with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.1,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Uttaradit",
"market_prob": 39.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.19,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.91,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"market_prob": 31.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.15,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.15,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Uttaradit",
"market_prob_pct": 39.69,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Nong Bua Pitchaya"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.1,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Uttaradit",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Uttaradit \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uttaradit 1.33 xG vs Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.27 \u2192 Uttaradit 36.6%",
"Market: Uttaradit ~39.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Nong Bua Pitchaya odds \u2191 +15.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Uttaradit with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.1,
"hero_label": "Uttaradit",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Nong Bua Pitchaya odds lengthened \u2191 +15.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Nong Bua Pitchaya has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Nong Bua Pitchaya \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Nong Bua Pitchaya has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Nong Bua Pitchaya \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Nong Bua Pitchaya has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.1,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Uttaradit",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.1,
"edge_pp": -3.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Uttaradit",
"market_prob_pct": 39.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.19,
"edge_pp": 1.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.91,
"edge_pp": 1.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"market_prob_pct": 31.86,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Nong Bua Pitchaya \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Uttaradit (39.7%).",
"Nong Bua Pitchaya odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +15.2%, 2/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Uttaradit \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
"closing_odds": 2.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
"entry_odds": 2.28,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Nong Bua Pitchaya (15.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.88",
"2.69",
"2.50"
],
"display": "2.94 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 58m",
"pick_team": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
2.84,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nong-bua-pitchaya",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"away_team_id": 2796,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2796.webp",
"away_team_name": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"away_team_public_id": "3xqbI8MnDA1Nem",
"away_team_slug": "nong-bua-pitchaya",
"country_code": "TH",
"country_display_name": "Thailand",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/th.svg",
"country_id": 153,
"country_name": "Thailand",
"fixture_id": 1602668,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Thailand",
"home_team_display_name": "Uttaradit",
"home_team_id": 6610,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6610.webp",
"home_team_name": "Uttaradit",
"home_team_public_id": "5UB9z2uGimrrG5",
"home_team_slug": "uttaradit",
"ht.home_team_slug": "uttaradit",
"league_country": "Thailand",
"league_country_display": "Thailand",
"league_display_name": "Liga Tailandesa 2",
"league_id": 297,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/297.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Tailandesa 2",
"league_public_id": "1HpDS7C9ROuazl",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 11:00:00",
"public_id": "4YmFPxWHNILa4R",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4372,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.3186,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3186,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.3969
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3269
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2946,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0035,
"ev": -0.084,
"implied_prob": 0.2845,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3186,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.3969
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2881
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4292,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3186,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.3969
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3836
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.3521,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.0572,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": -0.0726,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.214,
"alpha_yes": 0.2354,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0315,
"edge_yes": -0.0315,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0663,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0937,
"implied_no": 0.4235,
"implied_yes": 0.5765,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.214,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.4223,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4293
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0937,
"implied_prob": 0.5777,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.57
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4293,
"p_final_yes": 0.57,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2303,
"alpha_under": 0.2093,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 1.99,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.74,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": -0.0411,
"edge_under": 0.0411,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0991,
"ev_under": 0.0308,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0615,
"implied_over": 0.5231,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5285,
"implied_under": 0.4769,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4715,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2303,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.5285,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5178
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.4715,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4813
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5178,
"p_final_under": 0.4813,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0308,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0308,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Uttaradit)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0308,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Uttaradit at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Uttaradit as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Uttaradit",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Uttaradit).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1254,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0308,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Uttaradit"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.214,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.175,
"edge": 0.007,
"market_prob": 0.4223,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.214,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.4223,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4293
},
"p_final": 0.4293,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0663,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0937,
"implied_prob": 0.5777,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.57
}
},
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4235,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0097,
"market_prob": 0.4715,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2303,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.5285,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5178
},
"p_final": 0.4813,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0615,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.4715,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4813
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0411,
"ev": 0.0308,
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1602668,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0308,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Nong Bua Pitchaya",
"home": "Uttaradit"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1254,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1602668,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T10:59:13.750978+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Uttaradit & Nong Bua Pitchaya!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Liga Tailandesa 2 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Muang Loei United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Chainat | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Muangthong United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Satun | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Kanchanaburi | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Chiangmai United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Police Tero | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Songkhla | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Nakhon Pathom | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Phrae United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Mahasarakham United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Satun | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 4 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Uttaradit | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 4 | Khon Kaen United | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 5 | Muang Loei United | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 6 | Kanchanaburi | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Songkhla | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Chainat | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Chanthaburi | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 12 | Police Tero | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Phrae United | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Nakhon Pathom | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Muangthong United | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Mahasarakham United | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Esan Pattaya | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
