Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Legião Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Legião 0–0 Luziânia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9cbd0fb9ef56bef293ef7f67fccb2de8efca293e9ecd731b433336131e0cda50",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Legi\u00e3o or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Legi\u00e3o"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Legi\u00e3o",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1083,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4886,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.83
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.83,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Legi\u00e3o Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.05,
"market_odds": 1.83,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 11.8,
"prob_edge": -16.6,
"value_pct": -30.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Legi\u00e3o or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Legi\u00e3o or Luzi\u00e2nia",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Luzi\u00e2nia",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Legi\u00e3o or Luzi\u00e2nia",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Legi\u00e3o"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 10.2,
"implied_prob": 29.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Luzi\u00e2nia Win",
"model_prob": 32.4,
"odds": 3.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Luzi\u00e2nia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.3,
"draw": 24.84,
"home": 48.86
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:29:54",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:06:17",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Legi\u00e3o",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.86,
"gap_pp": -10.83,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.84,
"gap_pp": 4.76,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.3,
"gap_pp": 6.07,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.03,
"gap_pp": 7.17,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.97,
"gap_pp": -7.17,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.86,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.84,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.3,
"early": 2.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.03,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.97,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4169,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4275
},
"p_final": 0.4275,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0652,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0553,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2233,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5686
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.9,
"text": "+10.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1086,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10247.74,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1386,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0111,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4639,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5361,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5239
},
"p_final": 0.475,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0717,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0642,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1386,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.4639,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.475
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2157,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.6,
"text": "-21.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0717,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.2,
"text": "+7.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0717,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10064.53,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2054,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4886,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0495,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.0,
"text": "-5.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3041,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Legi\u00e3o",
"sort_key": 1787.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.85,
"hero_label": "Legi\u00e3o",
"market_prob_pct": 48.9,
"market_team": "Legi\u00e3o",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Legi\u00e3o",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legi\u00e3o)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legi\u00e3o)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Legi\u00e3o at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Legi\u00e3o as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Legi\u00e3o",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legi\u00e3o).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4886,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3041,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.85,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Legi\u00e3o",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legi\u00e3o)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legi\u00e3o)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Legi\u00e3o at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Legi\u00e3o as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Legi\u00e3o",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legi\u00e3o).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4886,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3041,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Legi\u00e3o 1.36 xG vs Luzi\u00e2nia 1.24 \u2192 Legi\u00e3o 38.0%",
"Market: Legi\u00e3o ~48.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Legi\u00e3o +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Legi\u00e3o with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.85,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Legi\u00e3o",
"market_prob": 48.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.75,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.09,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Luzi\u00e2nia",
"market_prob": 26.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.63,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.63,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.01,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.01,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Legi\u00e3o",
"market_prob_pct": 48.86,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Legi\u00e3o"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Legi\u00e3o\u0027s win probability at 48.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Legi\u00e3o",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.9,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Legi\u00e3o \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Legi\u00e3o 1.36 xG vs Luzi\u00e2nia 1.24 \u2192 Legi\u00e3o 38.0%",
"Market: Legi\u00e3o ~48.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Legi\u00e3o +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Legi\u00e3o with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.85,
"hero_label": "Legi\u00e3o",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Legi\u00e3o than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Legi\u00e3o.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Legi\u00e3o than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Legi\u00e3o."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Legi\u00e3o more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Legi\u00e3o (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (4/4) supports the current market view on Legi\u00e3o."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Legi\u00e3o",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Legi\u00e3o higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.85,
"edge_pp": -10.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Legi\u00e3o",
"market_prob_pct": 48.86,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.75,
"edge_pp": 4.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.09,
"edge_pp": 6.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Luzi\u00e2nia",
"market_prob_pct": 26.3,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Legi\u00e3o.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Legi\u00e3o (48.9%).",
"Legi\u00e3o \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 1.83,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"pick_team": "Legi\u00e3o",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Legi\u00e3o",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "luziania",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Luzi\u00e2nia",
"away_team_id": 7859,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7859.webp",
"away_team_name": "Luzi\u00e2nia",
"away_team_public_id": "0RZpByaYXSE3B5",
"away_team_slug": "luziania",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1602088,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Legi\u00e3o",
"home_team_id": 24912,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24912.webp",
"home_team_name": "Legi\u00e3o",
"home_team_public_id": "0KIJ1TFHYe2gMJ",
"home_team_slug": "legiao",
"ht.home_team_slug": "legiao",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Campeonato Brasiliense B",
"league_id": 1141,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1141.webp",
"league_name": "Campeonato Brasiliense B",
"league_public_id": "4viWQC7ecJBtAQ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 18:30:00",
"public_id": "5HH5P9zPzEHzfu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2727,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0495,
"implied_prob": 0.263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.263,
"draw": 0.2484,
"home": 0.4886
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2796
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0581,
"implied_prob": 0.2484,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.263,
"draw": 0.2484,
"home": 0.4886
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2616
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5025,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0544,
"ev": -0.2054,
"implied_prob": 0.4886,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.263,
"draw": 0.2484,
"home": 0.4886
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4342
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": 0.1006,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": 0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1661,
"ev": -0.304,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1524,
"alpha_yes": 0.1386,
"best_no_odd": 1.72,
"best_yes_odd": 1.97,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0801,
"edge_yes": 0.0801,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2157,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1068,
"ev_yes": 0.0717,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0642,
"implied_no": 0.5361,
"implied_yes": 0.4639,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5361,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5239
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1386,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.4639,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.475
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5239,
"p_final_yes": 0.475,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1624,
"alpha_under": 0.2233,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.21,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.58,
"edge_over": 0.0663,
"edge_under": -0.0663,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0553,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"implied_over": 0.4157,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4169,
"implied_under": 0.5843,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5831,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4275
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2233,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5686
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4275,
"p_final_under": 0.5686,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legi\u00e3o)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Legi\u00e3o at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Legi\u00e3o as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Legi\u00e3o",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legi\u00e3o).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4886,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3041,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0544,
"ev": -0.2054,
"implied_prob": 0.4886,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Legi\u00e3o"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1386,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0111,
"market_prob": 0.4639,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5361,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5239
},
"p_final": 0.475,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0642,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1386,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.4639,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.475
}
},
"edge": 0.0801,
"ev": 0.0717,
"implied_prob": 0.4639,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4169,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4275
},
"p_final": 0.4275,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0553,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2233,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5686
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0663,
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1602088,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1086,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0717,
"implied_prob": 0.4639,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0717,
"implied_prob": 0.4639,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Luzi\u00e2nia",
"home": "Legi\u00e3o"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.036642,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4886,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3041,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1602088,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T18:29:56.282176+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Legião & Luziânia!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Campeonato Brasiliense B — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taguatinga EC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Luziânia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Legião | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | GREVAL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | Planaltina DF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Canaa EC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Candango | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taguatinga EC | 3 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Luziânia | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Planaltina DF | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | GREVAL | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 | Legião | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Canaa EC | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 7 | Candango | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
