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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sampdoria Avellino ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Avellino win · Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "513f9d010011c064bbb5910085688bed28575f13e63b6f4578694bf5751e99ad",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3695,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.3378,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.2927,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"away_win_prob": 0.3695,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3695,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.588,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.412,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3378,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.3378,
"fair_odds_away": 2.71,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.71,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.96,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home": 3.42,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.42,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.91,
"home_win_prob": 0.2927,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2927,
"over_25_prob": 0.321,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.679
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Avellino or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Avellino"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sampdoria",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.019,
"edge_gap": 0.0312,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3503,
"model_prob": 0.3693,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.9,
"draw": 33.8,
"home": 29.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.86
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.72
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.7
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.7
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.7
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.65
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.62
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 2.55
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.86,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sampdoria Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.85,
"market_odds": 2.65,
"model_odds": 2.71,
"overround": 7.6,
"prob_edge": 1.9,
"value_pct": 5.5,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 59.7,
"no_prob": 58.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 58.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 41.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
"home_expected": 0.91,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 13.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Avellino or Draw",
"prob": 63.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Avellino or Sampdoria",
"prob": 66.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sampdoria",
"prob": 70.8
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Sampdoria",
"pick_prob": 70.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.0,
"draw_pct": 33.8,
"home_pct": 29.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Sampdoria"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 1.99,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 32.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.99,
"under_prob": 67.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"edge": 11.5,
"implied_prob": 30.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 33.8,
"odds": 3.3
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betfair",
"best_odds": 10.0,
"edge": 3.7,
"ev": 36.7,
"label": "0-0",
"probability": 13.7
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.2,
"ev": 0.2728,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 8.6,
"market_prob": 0.1163,
"market_prob_pct": 11.6,
"model_prob": 0.148,
"model_prob_pct": 14.8,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.8
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 13.7
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.91,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4265,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0534,
"edge_pp": 5.3,
"market_prob": 0.4629,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4265,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0534,
"ev": 0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"p_final": 0.5162
},
"p_final": 0.5162,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1701,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0273,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4691,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0587,
"ev": -0.1795,
"implied_prob": 0.5371,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"p_final": 0.4784
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.323,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2584,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.8,
"text": "-25.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.323,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 58.8,
"sort_key": 10440.7,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 41.2
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4688,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0709,
"edge_pp": 7.1,
"market_prob": 0.5277,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.679,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4261,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.1844,
"implied_prob": 0.4723,
"model_prob": 0.321,
"p_final": 0.4078
},
"p_final": 0.5986,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2154,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0715,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4688,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0709,
"ev": 0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.5277,
"model_prob": 0.679,
"p_final": 0.5986
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3227,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.3,
"text": "-32.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2222,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.2,
"text": "+22.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2222,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 32.1,
"sort_key": 10199.98,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 67.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"consensus_odds": 2.675,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0456,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.6,
"text": "-4.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0426,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.3,
"text": "-4.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3693,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0121,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sampdoria",
"sort_key": 1789.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 824.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 14.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Sampdoria",
"model_prob_pct": 37.0,
"model_team": "Sampdoria",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.323,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.323,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 25,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sampdoria at 36.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sampdoria as the value side (36.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sampdoria",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "25 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0456,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.675,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3693,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3738317757009346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0121,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.91,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.08,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.91 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -20%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.323,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.323,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 25,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sampdoria at 36.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sampdoria as the value side (36.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sampdoria",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "25 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0456,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.675,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3693,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3738317757009346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0121,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Avellino 0.91 xG vs Sampdoria 1.08 \u2192 Sampdoria 37.0%",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sampdoria, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.27,
"label": "Avellino",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 33.78,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.95,
"label": "Sampdoria",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.82,
"fair_prob": 32.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.82,
"fair_prob": 67.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.8,
"fair_prob": 41.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.8,
"fair_prob": 58.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sampdoria",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.3,
"model_prob_pct": 37.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Avellino 0.91 xG vs Sampdoria 1.08 \u2192 Sampdoria 37.0%",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sampdoria, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -3.2%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.2 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.2,
"max_prob_pct": 37.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.27,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Avellino",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.78,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.95,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sampdoria",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Sampdoria (37.0%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.2%, 5/10).",
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "No complete pre-match closing snapshot",
"closing_status": "unavailable",
"closing_status_label": "Unavailable",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "Requires closing line after full time",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "closing_unavailable",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Closing unavailable",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.33,
"entry_odds": 3.0,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "unavailable"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "5/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.35 \u2192 2.97 \u2192 3.00) \u2014 net 3.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"3.05",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.35 \u2192 2.97 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 46m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.35"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/10",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sampdoria",
"away_expected_goals": 0.25,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Sampdoria",
"away_team_id": 498,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/498.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sampdoria",
"away_team_public_id": "5mYe1BXkauSopW",
"away_team_slug": "sampdoria",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1601544,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 4,
"home_expected_goals": 1.34,
"home_goal_display": 4,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Avellino",
"home_team_id": 528,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/528.webp",
"home_team_name": "Avellino",
"home_team_public_id": "5IFk4mbSkOSUfK",
"home_team_slug": "avellino",
"ht.home_team_slug": "avellino",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie B",
"league_id": 136,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/136.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B",
"league_public_id": "5G7GlldQMogSrT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-09 18:30:00",
"public_id": "2t2wEXJo5X7TKd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Avellino",
"venue_name": "Partenio-Adriano Lombardi"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4351,
"best_odd": 2.675,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0456,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3472,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.3478
},
"model_prob": 0.3693,
"p_final": 0.3568
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2851,
"best_odd": 3.045,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.305,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3472,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.3478
},
"model_prob": 0.3381,
"p_final": 0.3144
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4127,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.1321,
"implied_prob": 0.3478,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3472,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.3478
},
"model_prob": 0.2926,
"p_final": 0.325
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": 0.0562,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.3693
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": 0.0351,
"ev": 0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.3381
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.0633,
"ev": -0.1777,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.2926
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4265,
"alpha_yes": 0.4691,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.128,
"edge_yes": -0.128,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.323,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0273,
"ev_yes": -0.2584,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1795,
"implied_no": 0.46,
"implied_yes": 0.54,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4265,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0534,
"ev": 0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"p_final": 0.5162
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4691,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0587,
"ev": -0.1795,
"implied_prob": 0.5371,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"p_final": 0.4784
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5162,
"p_final_yes": 0.4784,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4261,
"alpha_under": 0.4688,
"best_over_odd": 2.11,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.79,
"edge_over": -0.1482,
"edge_under": 0.1482,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3227,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1844,
"ev_under": 0.2222,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0715,
"implied_over": 0.4692,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4723,
"implied_under": 0.5308,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5277,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4261,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.1844,
"implied_prob": 0.4723,
"model_prob": 0.321,
"p_final": 0.4078
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4688,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0709,
"ev": 0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.5277,
"model_prob": 0.679,
"p_final": 0.5986
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4078,
"p_final_under": 0.5986,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.99,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.323,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.323,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.323,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.323,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.323,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 25,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sampdoria at 36.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sampdoria as the value side (36.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sampdoria",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "25 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sampdoria.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0456,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.675,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3693,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3738317757009346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0121,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.412,
"draw_prob": 0.3381,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3693,
"over_prob": 0.321,
"total_xg": 1.99,
"under_prob": 0.679,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.675,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0456,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3693,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sampdoria"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4265,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0534,
"market_prob": 0.4629,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4265,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0534,
"ev": 0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"p_final": 0.5162
},
"p_final": 0.5162,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0273,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4691,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0587,
"ev": -0.1795,
"implied_prob": 0.5371,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"p_final": 0.4784
}
},
"edge": 0.128,
"ev": 0.323,
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4688,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0709,
"market_prob": 0.5277,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.679,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4261,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.1844,
"implied_prob": 0.4723,
"model_prob": 0.321,
"p_final": 0.4078
},
"p_final": 0.5986,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0715,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4688,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0709,
"ev": 0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.5277,
"model_prob": 0.679,
"p_final": 0.5986
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1482,
"ev": 0.2222,
"implied_prob": 0.5308,
"model_prob": 0.679,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1601544,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.323,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3693,
"draw": 0.3381,
"home": 0.2926
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2222,
"implied_prob": 0.5308,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.679,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2222,
"implied_prob": 0.5308,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.679,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sampdoria",
"home": "Avellino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.218413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.323,
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0456,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.675,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3693,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3738317757009346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0121,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1601544,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-09T19:45:51.465033+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie B — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Sudtirol | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Mantova | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Modena | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Padova | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Benevento | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Verona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Avellino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Cesena | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Pisa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Empoli | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 17 | Sampdoria | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Juve Stabia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Carrarese | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 5 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Mantova | 5 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
| 3 | Verona | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Sudtirol | 5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 11 |
| 5 | Modena | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | Pisa | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Ascoli | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Avellino | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Cesena | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Vicenza Virtus | 5 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Benevento | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 13 | Arezzo | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Padova | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Sampdoria | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Catanzaro | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Empoli | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 19 | Juve Stabia | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 20 | Carrarese | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 13 |
| 2 | Pisa | 5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | +3.7 | 7 |
| 3 | Benevento | 5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | +2.7 | 7 |
| 4 | Verona | 5 | 4.8 | 2.2 | +2.6 | 7 |
| 5 | Modena | 5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | +1.9 | 10 |
| 6 | Arezzo | 5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | +0.7 | 6 |
| 7 | Mantova | 5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 11 |
| 8 | Virtus Entella | 5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 |
| 9 | Carrarese | 5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | -0.1 | 1 |
| 10 | Cesena | 5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 7 |
| 11 | Avellino | 5 | 4.8 | 5.1 | -0.3 | 7 |
| 12 | Juve Stabia | 5 | 3.1 | 3.7 | -0.6 | 3 |
| 13 | Sudtirol | 5 | 2.7 | 3.5 | -0.8 | 11 |
| 14 | Catanzaro | 5 | 2.8 | 3.8 | -1.0 | 3 |
| 15 | Padova | 5 | 2.0 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 7 |
| 16 | Sampdoria | 5 | 2.9 | 4.6 | -1.7 | 4 |
| 17 | Cremonese | 5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | -2.0 | 5 |
| 18 | Vicenza Virtus | 5 | 3.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | 5 |
| 19 | Ascoli | 5 | 3.5 | 6.1 | -2.6 | 10 |
| 20 | Empoli | 5 | 3.5 | 6.4 | -2.9 | 6 |
