Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (9 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 El Entag El Harby El Seka El Hadid ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
El Seka El Hadid win · El Seka El Hadid 5–4 El Entag El Harby
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4e263dde813fffeda9d1b7ac541e020f8776009d1e9b5c76625a698c32580339",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : El Seka El Hadid or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "El Seka El Hadid"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "El Entag El Harby",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0128,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3431,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.67
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.67,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "El Entag El Harby Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.91,
"market_odds": 2.67,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -1.9,
"value_pct": -5.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "El Seka El Hadid or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "El Seka El Hadid or El Entag El Harby",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or El Entag El Harby",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "El Seka El Hadid or El Entag El Harby",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "El Entag El Harby"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.8,
"implied_prob": 32.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "El Seka El Hadid Win",
"model_prob": 34.7,
"odds": 3.05
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.31,
"draw": 35.65,
"home": 30.04
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-01 12:29:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-01 11:59:10",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.04,
"gap_pp": 4.69,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.65,
"gap_pp": -5.97,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.31,
"gap_pp": 1.28,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.48,
"gap_pp": 16.72,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 68.52,
"gap_pp": -16.72,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.05,
"early": 3.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.04,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.57,
"early": 2.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.65,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.67,
"early": 2.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.31,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.96,
"early": 2.96,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.48,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.36,
"early": 1.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 68.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 68.52,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.7,
"ev": -0.1167,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.01,
"market_prob": 0.1427,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.705,
"edge": 0.0202,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3394,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"best_odd": 2.705,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0272,
"implied_prob": 0.3394,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3596
},
"p_final": 0.3596,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3038,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0272,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.6606,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6328
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4267,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 42.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2489,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.9,
"text": "-24.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4267,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10534.03,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1845,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.165,
"edge": 0.0221,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.425,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.575,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5507
},
"p_final": 0.4471,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1799,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.032,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1845,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.425,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4471
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.3,
"text": "-26.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.6,
"text": "+22.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2263,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10203.67,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0688,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.9,
"text": "-6.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3431,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0439,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "El Entag El Harby",
"sort_key": 1789.025,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"alert_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.0,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "El Entag El Harby",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (El Entag El Harby)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (El Entag El Harby)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Entag El Harby at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Entag El Harby as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Entag El Harby",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (El Entag El Harby).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0688,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3431,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.0,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"steam_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (El Entag El Harby).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (El Entag El Harby)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (El Entag El Harby)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Entag El Harby at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Entag El Harby as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Entag El Harby",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (El Entag El Harby).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0688,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3431,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Seka El Hadid 1.29 xG vs El Entag El Harby 1.31 \u2192 El Entag El Harby 35.6%",
"Market: Draw ~34.3% implied",
"Market Drift: El Seka El Hadid odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean El Entag El Harby with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 4.66,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "El Seka El Hadid",
"market_prob": 30.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.0,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 35.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.33,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "El Entag El Harby",
"market_prob": 34.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.48,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.48,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.22,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.22,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.65,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "El Seka El Hadid"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 35.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "El Entag El Harby",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "El Entag El Harby \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Seka El Hadid 1.29 xG vs El Entag El Harby 1.31 \u2192 El Entag El Harby 35.6%",
"Market: Draw ~34.3% implied",
"Market Drift: El Seka El Hadid odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean El Entag El Harby with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.0,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "El Seka El Hadid odds lengthened \u2191 +10.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, El Seka El Hadid has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from El Seka El Hadid \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, El Seka El Hadid has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from El Seka El Hadid \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, El Seka El Hadid has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on El Seka El Hadid."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 4.66,
"edge_pp": 4.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "El Seka El Hadid",
"market_prob_pct": 30.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.0,
"edge_pp": -6.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.65,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.33,
"edge_pp": 1.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "El Entag El Harby",
"market_prob_pct": 34.31,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from El Seka El Hadid \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (34.3%).",
"However, El Seka El Hadid has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +10.7%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 El Entag El Harby, Market \u2192 Draw, while El Seka El Hadid odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.91,
"closing_odds": 2.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.91,
"entry_odds": 2.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on El Seka El Hadid (10.7%, 8/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.05",
"2.83",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.05 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 4m",
"pick_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.05"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
3.05,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/8 sportsbooks on El Seka El Hadid",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "El Seka El Hadid",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "el-entag-el-harby",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "El Entag El Harby",
"away_team_id": 1034,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1034.webp",
"away_team_name": "El Entag El Harby",
"away_team_public_id": "21WmOOuefYGtVO",
"away_team_slug": "el-entag-el-harby",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1594850,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Egypt",
"home_team_display_name": "El Seka El Hadid",
"home_team_id": 18031,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18031.webp",
"home_team_name": "El Seka El Hadid",
"home_team_public_id": "2nHhm5LGkl7WWS",
"home_team_slug": "el-seka-el-hadid",
"ht.home_team_slug": "el-seka-el-hadid",
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Liga de Egipto",
"league_id": 887,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/887.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga de Egipto",
"league_public_id": "0eLiV01E20e1LN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-01 12:30:00",
"public_id": "2qxdcJD9NYnX9o",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cairo",
"venue_name": "Al-Sekka Al-Hadid Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4414,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0688,
"implied_prob": 0.3431,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3431,
"draw": 0.3565,
"home": 0.3004
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3488
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4097,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1467,
"implied_prob": 0.3565,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3431,
"draw": 0.3565,
"home": 0.3004
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.332
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2789,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.3004,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3431,
"draw": 0.3565,
"home": 0.3004
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3135
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.0497,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0923,
"ev": -0.2373,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2029,
"alpha_yes": 0.1845,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1222,
"edge_yes": 0.1222,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1189,
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.032,
"implied_no": 0.5772,
"implied_yes": 0.4228,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.575,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5507
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1845,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.425,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4471
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5507,
"p_final_yes": 0.4471,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1415,
"alpha_under": 0.1946,
"best_over_odd": 2.96,
"best_under_odd": 1.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.705,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.39,
"edge_over": 0.1448,
"edge_under": -0.1448,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4267,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0272,
"ev_under": -0.2489,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1204,
"implied_over": 0.3372,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3394,
"implied_under": 0.6628,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6606,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"best_odd": 2.705,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0272,
"implied_prob": 0.3394,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3596
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.6606,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6328
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3596,
"p_final_under": 0.6328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4267,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4267,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (El Entag El Harby)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Entag El Harby at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Entag El Harby as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Entag El Harby",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (El Entag El Harby).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0688,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3431,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0688,
"implied_prob": 0.3431,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "El Entag El Harby"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1845,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.165,
"edge": 0.0221,
"market_prob": 0.425,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.575,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5507
},
"p_final": 0.4471,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.032,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1845,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.425,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4471
}
},
"edge": 0.1222,
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4228,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.705,
"edge": 0.0202,
"market_prob": 0.3394,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"best_odd": 2.705,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0272,
"implied_prob": 0.3394,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3596
},
"p_final": 0.3596,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0272,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.6606,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6328
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1448,
"ev": 0.4267,
"implied_prob": 0.3372,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1594850,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4267,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4228,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4228,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "El Entag El Harby",
"home": "El Seka El Hadid"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.143969,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4267,
"implied_prob": 0.3372,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0688,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3431,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1594850,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-01T12:29:06.502515+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para El Seka El Hadid & El Entag El Harby!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Segunda Liga de Egipto — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Haras El Hodood | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Itesalat | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Al Nasr SC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Pharco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Tersana | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | El Seka El Hadid | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | El Dakhleya | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Tanta SC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | El Entag El Harby | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Team | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Ismaily SC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 17 | Dayrout | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 18 | Proxy | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 19 | La Viena FC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Mega Sport | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 8 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 2 | Kahraba Ismailia | 8 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 | El Seka El Hadid | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 8 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Itesalat | 7 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 15 |
| 6 | Al Nasr SC | 8 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | El Entag El Harby | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 7 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 | Ismaily SC | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Pharco | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | Tersana | 8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 | El Mansura | 7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Team | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | El Dakhleya | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Mega Sport | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2 |
| 17 | Tanta SC | 7 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 18 | La Viena FC | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 19 | Proxy | 8 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 8 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 5 |
