Sep 19, 2026 - 15:00
1
1.31
2
1.29
xG Accuracy: 76%
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Club América Sub-21 Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21 ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21 win · Club América Sub-21 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "77c545fe3487ef8685cf36f242f9884cfcd98516706967c89c7d76e53d136747",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1041,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4601,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.17,
"market_odds": 1.95,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 11.5,
"prob_edge": -15.7,
"value_pct": -30.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 or Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 or Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 12.8,
"implied_prob": 30.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21 Win",
"model_prob": 34.7,
"odds": 3.25
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.6,
"draw": 26.39,
"home": 46.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 15:01:58",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:35:55",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.01,
"gap_pp": -10.41,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.39,
"gap_pp": 3.29,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.6,
"gap_pp": 7.12,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"gap_pp": -4.43,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.37,
"gap_pp": 4.43,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.39,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.63,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.37,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.7,
"ev": -0.118,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0061,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4895,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0618,
"implied_prob": 0.5105,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5044
},
"p_final": 0.4956,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0049,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0385,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.4895,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4956
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0938,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.4,
"text": "-9.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21).",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2057,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.6,
"text": "-20.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0408,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.1,
"text": "-4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"sort_key": 1789.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.173,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.705,
"edge": 0.0002,
"edge_pp": 0.0,
"market_prob": 0.5441,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0726,
"implied_prob": 0.4559,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4557
},
"p_final": 0.5443,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0708,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.072,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.173,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.5441,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5443
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0718,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.068,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.8,
"text": "-6.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.068,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1783.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.37,
"hero_label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 46.0,
"market_team": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1287,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1592855 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21).",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2057,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.37,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.37,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1287,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1592855 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21).",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2057,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 1.31 xG vs Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21 1.29 \u2192 Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 35.6%",
"Market: Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 ~46.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.37,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"market_prob": 46.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.26,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.1,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"market_prob": 27.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.09,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.09,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 46.01,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21\u0027s win probability at 46.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.37,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 1.31 xG vs Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21 1.29 \u2192 Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 35.6%",
"Market: Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 ~46.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.37,
"hero_label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 (pricing gap 10.4 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.37,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.37,
"edge_pp": -10.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 46.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.26,
"edge_pp": 3.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.1,
"edge_pp": 7.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 27.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 (46.0%).",
"Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"away_team_id": 26833,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"away_team_public_id": "1kyzN7xdckc8ai",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1592855,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"home_team_id": 26829,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"home_team_public_id": "60YMPjDEyORgy3",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX Sub-21",
"league_id": 1200,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1200.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX Sub-21",
"league_public_id": "32JpgY71mc3AvL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 15:00:00",
"public_id": "0U7hELtHElYyDI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2679,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.276,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.276,
"draw": 0.2639,
"home": 0.4601
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.2951
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2852,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.276,
"draw": 0.2639,
"home": 0.4601
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2733
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5063,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0527,
"ev": -0.2057,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.276,
"draw": 0.2639,
"home": 0.4601
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4074
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0396,
"ev": 0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": 0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.1569,
"ev": -0.3059,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1573,
"alpha_yes": 0.173,
"best_no_odd": 2.04,
"best_yes_odd": 1.71,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0009,
"edge_yes": 0.0009,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0718,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0726,
"ev_yes": -0.068,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.072,
"implied_no": 0.4559,
"implied_yes": 0.5441,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0726,
"implied_prob": 0.4559,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4557
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.173,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.5441,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5443
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4557,
"p_final_yes": 0.5443,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2154,
"alpha_under": 0.2154,
"best_over_odd": 1.88,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.86,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.94,
"edge_over": -0.032,
"edge_under": 0.032,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0938,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0618,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0385,
"implied_over": 0.514,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5105,
"implied_under": 0.486,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4895,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0618,
"implied_prob": 0.5105,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5044
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.4895,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4956
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5044,
"p_final_under": 0.4956,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1287,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1287,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1592855 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21).",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2057,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0527,
"ev": -0.2057,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.173,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.705,
"edge": 0.0002,
"market_prob": 0.5441,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0726,
"implied_prob": 0.4559,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4557
},
"p_final": 0.5443,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.072,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.173,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.5441,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5443
}
},
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.5441,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0061,
"market_prob": 0.4895,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0618,
"implied_prob": 0.5105,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5044
},
"p_final": 0.4956,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0385,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.4895,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4956
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.486,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1592855,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21",
"home": "Club Am\u00e9rica Sub-21"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2057,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.306,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1592855,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T15:02:00.408743+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Club América Sub-21 & Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Liga MX Sub-21 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca Sub-21 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Club León Sub-21 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | Club Tijuana U21 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Puebla Sub-21 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul Sub-21 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Club América Sub-21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Monterrey Sub-21 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Juárez Sub-21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Atlético San Luis Sub-21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | Necaxa U21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Atlante U21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlas Sub-21 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | UNAM Pumas Sub-21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna Sub-21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | Pachuca Sub-21 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL U21 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Querétaro Sub-21 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca Sub-21 | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 25 |
| 2 | Club León Sub-21 | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
| 3 | Monterrey Sub-21 | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul Sub-21 | 10 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Club Tijuana U21 | 10 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas Sub-21 | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis Sub-21 | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Club América Sub-21 | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Atlante U21 | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlas Sub-21 | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Puebla Sub-21 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Pachuca Sub-21 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Necaxa U21 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Querétaro Sub-21 | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Juárez Sub-21 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | UNAM Pumas Sub-21 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL U21 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna Sub-21 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 10 |
