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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Pazarspor Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Galata 0–0 Pazarspor
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3769080abaebf7640be1626b6694b6f380efe9bbbdab3f8f76baaf2cf2d62168",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Pazarspor",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0264,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3395,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.62
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.62,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Pazarspor Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.95,
"market_odds": 2.62,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": -1.5,
"value_pct": -4.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Galata or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Galata or Pazarspor",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Pazarspor",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Galata or Pazarspor",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Pazarspor"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -4.0,
"implied_prob": 38.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Pazarspor Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 2.62
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Pazarspor",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.95,
"draw": 32.35,
"home": 33.7
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 13:58:30",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 13:33:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Galata",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.7,
"gap_pp": 0.06,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.35,
"gap_pp": -2.7,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.95,
"gap_pp": 2.64,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.98,
"gap_pp": 10.22,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.02,
"gap_pp": -10.22,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.64,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.75,
"early": 2.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.35,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.95,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.98,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.02,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4385,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"p_final": 0.4477,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0122,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0599,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4993,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.494
},
"p_final": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0026,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.074,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.506
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1628,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.3,
"text": "-16.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.3,
"text": "-0.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0026,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4049.636,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0805,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.1,
"text": "-8.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3395,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0805,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.1,
"text": "-8.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Pazarspor",
"sort_key": 1779.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"alert_team": "Galata",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.71,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.0,
"market_team": "Pazarspor",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Pazarspor",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pazarspor)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pazarspor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pazarspor at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pazarspor as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pazarspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pazarspor).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0805,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3395,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.71,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.71,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"steam_team": "Galata",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pazarspor)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pazarspor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pazarspor at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pazarspor as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pazarspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pazarspor).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0805,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3395,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Galata 1.27 xG vs Pazarspor 1.33 \u2192 Pazarspor 36.6%",
"Market: Pazarspor ~34.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Galata odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pazarspor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.07,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Galata",
"market_prob": 33.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.71,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.64,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Pazarspor",
"market_prob": 33.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.39,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.39,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.57,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.57,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.35,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Galata"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.71,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pazarspor",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Pazarspor \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Galata 1.27 xG vs Pazarspor 1.33 \u2192 Pazarspor 36.6%",
"Market: Pazarspor ~34.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Galata odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pazarspor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.71,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Galata odds lengthened \u2191 +11.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Galata has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Galata \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Galata has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Galata \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Galata has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.71,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.07,
"edge_pp": 0.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Galata",
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.71,
"edge_pp": -2.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.64,
"edge_pp": 2.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pazarspor",
"market_prob_pct": 33.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Galata \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pazarspor (34.0%).",
"Galata odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.4%, 3/5) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Pazarspor \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.36,
"closing_odds": 2.75,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.36,
"entry_odds": 2.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Galata (11.4%, 3/5) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.64",
"2.42",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.64 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"pick_team": "Galata",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.64"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.64,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.64"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Galata",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Galata",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Galata",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_team_name": "Galata",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pazarspor",
"away_team_id": 7420,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7420.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pazarspor",
"away_team_public_id": "0yHSLtjWwcXT0x",
"away_team_slug": "pazarspor",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1590371,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Galata",
"home_team_id": 26465,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26465.webp",
"home_team_name": "Galata",
"home_team_public_id": "61LOYTUpvmVlwN",
"home_team_slug": "galata",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "3. Lig Turqu\u00eda - Grupo 1",
"league_id": 552,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/552.webp",
"league_name": "3. Lig Turqu\u00eda - Grupo 1",
"league_public_id": "0mfLQrCVuq1jL4",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0im5AZ5BMdrEbJ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4322,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0805,
"implied_prob": 0.3395,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3395,
"draw": 0.3235,
"home": 0.337
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.351
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4318,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.3235,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3395,
"draw": 0.3235,
"home": 0.337
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3118
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4496,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0003,
"ev": -0.1097,
"implied_prob": 0.337,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3395,
"draw": 0.3235,
"home": 0.337
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3372
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0672,
"ev": -0.1847,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1467,
"alpha_yes": 0.1467,
"best_no_odd": 1.84,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0457,
"edge_yes": 0.0457,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1628,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0985,
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.074,
"implied_no": 0.5007,
"implied_yes": 0.4993,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.494
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.506
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.494,
"p_final_yes": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2103,
"alpha_under": 0.2314,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.0439,
"edge_under": -0.0439,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0599,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0956,
"implied_over": 0.4381,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4385,
"implied_under": 0.5619,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5615,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4477,
"p_final_under": 0.5514,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pazarspor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pazarspor at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pazarspor as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pazarspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pazarspor).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0805,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3395,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4381,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0805,
"implied_prob": 0.3395,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Pazarspor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4993,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.494
},
"p_final": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.074,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.506
}
},
"edge": 0.0457,
"ev": -0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"market_prob": 0.4385,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"p_final": 0.4477,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0599,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0439,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4381,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1590371,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pazarspor",
"home": "Galata"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0805,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3395,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1590371,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:58:32.232889+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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3. Lig Turquía - Grupo 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orduspor 1967 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Pazarspor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Düzcespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Gölcükspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Galata | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Silivrispor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | İnkılapspor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Tuzlaspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orduspor 1967 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | Pazarspor | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | Gölcükspor | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Düzcespor | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | İnkılapspor | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 |
| 13 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 15 | Galata | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Tuzlaspor | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Silivrispor | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
