Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Dibba Al Hisn Palm City ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.97
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Palm City win · Dibba Al Hisn 2–3 Palm City
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4c7f8a6e2ca2ba185c50963d9df6171df09e5e18b95a0049d57afc1d1fd52412",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"away_win_prob": 0.2969,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.37,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.44,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"home_win_prob": 0.4091,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Dibba Al Hisn and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Dibba Al Hisn"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0474,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4569,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.7,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 41.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.98
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.98,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Dibba Al Hisn Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.19,
"market_odds": 1.98,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": -9.5,
"value_pct": -18.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 75.8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.42,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Dibba Al Hisn or Draw",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Dibba Al Hisn or Palm City",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Palm City",
"prob": 59.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Dibba Al Hisn or Palm City",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.7,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Dibba Al Hisn"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 16.7,
"implied_prob": 25.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 3.97
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Palm City",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.52,
"draw": 22.79,
"home": 45.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 14:50:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 14:24:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.69,
"gap_pp": -4.74,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.79,
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.52,
"gap_pp": -1.87,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.69,
"gap_pp": -16.49,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.31,
"gap_pp": 16.49,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.98,
"early": 1.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.97,
"early": 3.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.79,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.87,
"early": 2.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.52,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.69,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.31,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.1,
"ev": -0.008,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.42,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0218,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.359,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1885,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.641,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6111
},
"p_final": 0.3808,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.295,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0481,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.359,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3808
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2674,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.7,
"text": "-26.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3572,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10471.48,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.505,
"edge": 0.0156,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.3569,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 2.505,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.067,
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3724
},
"p_final": 0.3724,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1498,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.067,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.6431,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6217
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2347,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.5,
"text": "+23.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1885,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.9,
"text": "-18.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2347,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10211.23,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1476,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.8,
"text": "-14.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0245,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"sort_key": 1793.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.61,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 45.7,
"market_team": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dibba Al Hisn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dibba Al Hisn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dibba Al Hisn at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dibba Al Hisn as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dibba Al Hisn).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1476,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.61,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.61,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dibba Al Hisn).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dibba Al Hisn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dibba Al Hisn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dibba Al Hisn at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dibba Al Hisn as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dibba Al Hisn).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1476,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dibba Al Hisn 1.42 xG vs Palm City 1.18 \u2192 Dibba Al Hisn 40.9%",
"Market: Dibba Al Hisn ~45.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Dibba Al Hisn +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dibba Al Hisn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.78,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"market_prob": 45.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.61,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.83,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Palm City",
"market_prob": 31.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.08,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.08,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.79,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Dibba Al Hisn"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.8%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.61,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.8,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Dibba Al Hisn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dibba Al Hisn 1.42 xG vs Palm City 1.18 \u2192 Dibba Al Hisn 40.9%",
"Market: Dibba Al Hisn ~45.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Dibba Al Hisn +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dibba Al Hisn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.61,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.61,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.6,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.78,
"edge_pp": -4.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"market_prob_pct": 45.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.61,
"edge_pp": 6.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.79,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.83,
"edge_pp": -1.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Palm City",
"market_prob_pct": 31.52,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Dibba Al Hisn (45.7%).",
"Dibba Al Hisn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.19,
"closing_odds": 3.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.19,
"entry_odds": 3.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_team_name": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Palm City",
"away_team_id": 27995,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Palm City",
"away_team_public_id": "3yj5eC1ipU4Ppt",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "AE",
"country_display_name": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ae.svg",
"country_id": 161,
"country_name": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"fixture_id": 1590005,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"home_team_display_name": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"home_team_id": 9140,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9140.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"home_team_public_id": "3emzuIeK9LYY2U",
"home_team_slug": "dibba-al-hisn",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dibba-al-hisn",
"league_country": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"league_country_display": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Emiratos \u00c1rabes Unidos",
"league_id": 303,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/303.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Emiratos \u00c1rabes Unidos",
"league_public_id": "39LzHZd7brSW4N",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 14:55:00",
"public_id": "0mnJnaOHpGROmF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Khor Fakkan",
"venue_name": "Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4374,
"best_odd": 2.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.1188,
"implied_prob": 0.3152,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3152,
"draw": 0.2279,
"home": 0.4569
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.307
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2703,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0245,
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3152,
"draw": 0.2279,
"home": 0.4569
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2457
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5574,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0264,
"ev": -0.1476,
"implied_prob": 0.4569,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3152,
"draw": 0.2279,
"home": 0.4569
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4305
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.87,
"edge": -0.0519,
"ev": -0.149,
"implied_prob": 0.3484,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.042,
"ev": 0.1668,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.0955,
"ev": -0.1891,
"implied_prob": 0.5051,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1524,
"alpha_yes": 0.2096,
"best_no_odd": 2.69,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1008,
"edge_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2347,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.067,
"ev_yes": -0.1885,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1358,
"implied_no": 0.3582,
"implied_yes": 0.6418,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 2.505,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.067,
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3724
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.6431,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6217
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3724,
"p_final_yes": 0.6217,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1885,
"alpha_under": 0.1371,
"best_over_odd": 1.52,
"best_under_odd": 2.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.5,
"edge_over": -0.1488,
"edge_under": 0.1488,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2674,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1445,
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0481,
"implied_over": 0.6308,
"implied_over_mf": 0.641,
"implied_under": 0.3692,
"implied_under_mf": 0.359,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1885,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.641,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6111
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.359,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3808
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6111,
"p_final_under": 0.3808,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dibba Al Hisn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dibba Al Hisn at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dibba Al Hisn as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dibba Al Hisn",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dibba Al Hisn).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1476,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0264,
"ev": -0.1476,
"implied_prob": 0.4569,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Dibba Al Hisn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.505,
"edge": 0.0156,
"market_prob": 0.3569,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 2.505,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.067,
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3724
},
"p_final": 0.3724,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.067,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.6431,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6217
}
},
"edge": 0.1008,
"ev": 0.2347,
"implied_prob": 0.3582,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.359,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1885,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.641,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6111
},
"p_final": 0.3808,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0481,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.359,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3808
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1488,
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1590005,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3572,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2347,
"implied_prob": 0.3582,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2347,
"implied_prob": 0.3582,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Palm City",
"home": "Dibba Al Hisn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.129521,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1476,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1590005,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T14:50:14.128913+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Dibba Al Hisn & Palm City!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Primera División de Emiratos Árabes Unidos — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Thaid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Forte Virtus | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Hamriyah | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Bataeh | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Dibba Al Hisn | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Fujairah SC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Gulf United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Emirates Club | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Al Urooba | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Palm City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | City | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Ittifaq | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 5 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Thaid | 4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 4 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Palm City | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 5 | Al Fujairah SC | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Dibba Al Hisn | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 7 | Gulf United | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | City | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Emirates Club | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Al Hamriyah | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Forte Virtus | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Urooba | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Bataeh | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Ittifaq | 5 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
| 15 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 2 |
