Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 UN Käerjéng 97 UN Käerjéng 97 ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 5-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.99
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
UN Käerjéng 97 win · UN Käerjéng 97 5–0 Victoria Rosport
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "701b05dd7b988a9eb3b997adb5c3e5a61a3dcfe636bee6f4cfba2dd248dac80f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"away_win_prob": 0.3014,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.32,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"home_win_prob": 0.4042,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97"
},
"away_xg": 1.19,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.056,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.1,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 40.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.99
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.99,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.17,
"market_odds": 1.99,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 9.0,
"prob_edge": -9.8,
"value_pct": -19.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 75.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.19,
"home_expected": 1.41,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 or Draw",
"prob": 69.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 or Victoria Rosport",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Victoria Rosport",
"prob": 59.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 or Victoria Rosport",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.1,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.3,
"implied_prob": 27.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 3.58
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Victoria Rosport",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.3,
"draw": 25.62,
"home": 46.08
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 18:01:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 17:32:26",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.08,
"gap_pp": -5.6,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.62,
"gap_pp": 3.79,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.3,
"gap_pp": 1.81,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.49,
"gap_pp": -10.29,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.51,
"gap_pp": 10.29,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.08,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.58,
"early": 3.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.62,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.24,
"early": 3.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.59,
"early": 1.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.49,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.24,
"early": 2.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.51,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.41,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0159,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4129,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.5871,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5652
},
"p_final": 0.4289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1526,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0458,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"best_odd": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0458,
"implied_prob": 0.4129,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4289
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.9,
"text": "-22.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.1,
"text": "+19.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1914,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10322.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0101,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.3961,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.3961,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4062
},
"p_final": 0.4062,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0511,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2245,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.6039,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.59
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0763,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.6,
"text": "+7.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1707,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0763,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10068.67,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1443,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0446,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1944,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"sort_key": 1788.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.66,
"hero_label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"market_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1944,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.66,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1944,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 1.41 xG vs Victoria Rosport 1.19 \u2192 UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 40.4%",
"Market: UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 ~46.1% implied",
"Market Steam: UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.66,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"market_prob": 46.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.82,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.84,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Victoria Rosport",
"market_prob": 28.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.4,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.4,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.32,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.32,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"market_prob_pct": 46.08,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97\u0027s win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.7,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 1.41 xG vs Victoria Rosport 1.19 \u2192 UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 40.4%",
"Market: UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 ~46.1% implied",
"Market Steam: UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.66,
"hero_label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 above the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.66,
"edge_pp": -5.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"market_prob_pct": 46.08,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.82,
"edge_pp": 3.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.62,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.84,
"edge_pp": 1.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Victoria Rosport",
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 (46.1%).",
"UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.25,
"closing_odds": 1.99,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.25,
"entry_odds": 1.99,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/10",
"current_odds": 1.83,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"pick_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_team_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "victoria-rosport",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Victoria Rosport",
"away_team_id": 2038,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2038.webp",
"away_team_name": "Victoria Rosport",
"away_team_public_id": "5HM7ZtIU96VtYc",
"away_team_slug": "victoria-rosport",
"country_code": "LU",
"country_display_name": "Luxembourg",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lu.svg",
"country_id": 97,
"country_name": "Luxembourg",
"fixture_id": 1589490,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Luxembourg",
"home_team_display_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"home_team_id": 2035,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2035.webp",
"home_team_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"home_team_public_id": "4Xq51pR6oG2w8a",
"home_team_slug": "un-kaerjeng-97",
"ht.home_team_slug": "un-kaerjeng-97",
"league_country": "Luxembourg",
"league_country_display": "Luxembourg",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Nacional de Luxemburgo",
"league_id": 261,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/261.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Nacional de Luxemburgo",
"league_public_id": "0RABo0hRc68yy3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3DmTuqOnRRvkmH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2918,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0053,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.283,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.283,
"draw": 0.2562,
"home": 0.4608
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.2883
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2829,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.2562,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.283,
"draw": 0.2562,
"home": 0.4608
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2669
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5496,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1443,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.283,
"draw": 0.2562,
"home": 0.4608
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.43
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.24,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.58,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": 0.0528,
"implied_prob": 0.2793,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.0977,
"ev": -0.1945,
"implied_prob": 0.5025,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1633,
"alpha_yes": 0.2245,
"best_no_odd": 2.35,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0632,
"edge_yes": -0.0632,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0763,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0678,
"ev_yes": -0.1707,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.112,
"implied_no": 0.3948,
"implied_yes": 0.6052,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.3961,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4062
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2245,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.6039,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.59
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4062,
"p_final_yes": 0.59,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2085,
"alpha_under": 0.1516,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.565,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.225,
"edge_over": -0.104,
"edge_under": 0.104,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1155,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0458,
"implied_over": 0.586,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5871,
"implied_under": 0.414,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4129,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.5871,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5652
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"best_odd": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0458,
"implied_prob": 0.4129,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4289
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5652,
"p_final_under": 0.4289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1944,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1443,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0101,
"market_prob": 0.3961,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.3961,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4062
},
"p_final": 0.4062,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2245,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.6039,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.59
}
},
"edge": 0.0632,
"ev": 0.0763,
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0159,
"market_prob": 0.4129,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.5871,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5652
},
"p_final": 0.4289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0458,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"best_odd": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0458,
"implied_prob": 0.4129,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4289
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.104,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.414,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1589490,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Victoria Rosport",
"home": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.414,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1944,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1589490,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T18:01:28.054196+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para UN Käerjéng 97 & Victoria Rosport!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
División Nacional de Luxemburgo — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-Bains | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | UN Käerjéng 97 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | US Rumelange | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz 71 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UN Käerjéng 97 | 8 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 6 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | US Mondorf-les-Bains | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 8 | US Hostert | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Wiltz 71 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 4 |
| 11 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 5 |
| 13 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 8 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 6 |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 2 | 30 | -28 |
