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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (8 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Manchester City Sub-21 Chesterfield ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Chesterfield win · Chesterfield 5–3 Manchester City Sub-21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3849,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.6,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.13,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.3194,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.37,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0636,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.321,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.5,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.89
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.89,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Manchester City Sub-21 Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.11,
"market_odds": 2.89,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": 3.9,
"value_pct": 11.2,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 74.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 70.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.37,
"home_expected": 1.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chesterfield or Draw",
"prob": 61.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chesterfield or Manchester City Sub-21",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Manchester City Sub-21",
"prob": 68.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Chesterfield or Manchester City Sub-21",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 31.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Manchester City Sub-21"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 4.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 11.3,
"implied_prob": 34.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Manchester City Sub-21 Win",
"model_prob": 38.5,
"odds": 2.89
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.1,
"draw": 24.74,
"home": 43.15
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 17:59:32",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 17:29:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Chesterfield",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.15,
"gap_pp": -11.2,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.74,
"gap_pp": 4.85,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.1,
"gap_pp": 6.36,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.54,
"gap_pp": -17.34,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.46,
"gap_pp": 17.34,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.15,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.75,
"early": 3.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.74,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.89,
"early": 2.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.54,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.72,
"early": 2.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.46,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1356,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0223,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3535,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1864,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0307,
"ev": -0.1379,
"implied_prob": 0.6465,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6158
},
"p_final": 0.3758,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3261,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0379,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1356,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3758
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.6,
"text": "-30.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.4245,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 42.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4245,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10532.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3374,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.355
},
"p_final": 0.355,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2358,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0381,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2035,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.6626,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6385
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3133,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 31.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3133,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10281.97,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0026,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0026,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"sort_key": 5202.08,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.21,
"hero_label": "Chesterfield",
"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"market_team": "Chesterfield",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Manchester City Sub-21)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Manchester City Sub-21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Manchester City Sub-21 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Manchester City Sub-21 as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Manchester City Sub-21).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0026,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3460207612456747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 68,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Manchester City Sub-21)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Manchester City Sub-21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Manchester City Sub-21 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Manchester City Sub-21 as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Manchester City Sub-21).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0026,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3460207612456747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chesterfield 1.23 xG vs Manchester City Sub-21 1.37 \u2192 Manchester City Sub-21 38.5%",
"Market: Chesterfield ~32.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Manchester City Sub-21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.21,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Chesterfield",
"market_prob": 43.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.83,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.39,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"market_prob": 32.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.51,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.51,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Chesterfield",
"market_prob_pct": 43.15,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Chesterfield\u0027s win probability at 43.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 68,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Manchester City Sub-21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chesterfield 1.23 xG vs Manchester City Sub-21 1.37 \u2192 Manchester City Sub-21 38.5%",
"Market: Chesterfield ~32.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Manchester City Sub-21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.21,
"hero_label": "Chesterfield",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +4.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Chesterfield than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Chesterfield than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Chesterfield more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Chesterfield",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Chesterfield higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.21,
"edge_pp": -11.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chesterfield",
"market_prob_pct": 43.15,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.83,
"edge_pp": 4.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.39,
"edge_pp": 6.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chesterfield (32.1%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.0%, 5/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Manchester City Sub-21, Market \u2192 Chesterfield, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.51,
"closing_odds": 2.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.51,
"entry_odds": 2.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 60h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Draw (4.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.83",
"3.75"
],
"display": "3.90 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 60h 28m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/7 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "manchester-city-u21",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"away_team_id": 7197,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7197.webp",
"away_team_name": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"away_team_public_id": "3ZJm6AcBelgLDC",
"away_team_slug": "manchester-city-u21",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1588835,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Chesterfield",
"home_team_id": 1345,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1345.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chesterfield",
"home_team_public_id": "4UnmMC9PLZg6ok",
"home_team_slug": "chesterfield",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chesterfield",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "EFL Trophy",
"league_id": 46,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/46.webp",
"league_name": "EFL Trophy",
"league_public_id": "0r9FfOzJWNDaw1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 18:00:00",
"public_id": "5eJHHnXV2G8RAd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Chesterfield",
"venue_name": "SMH Group Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4071,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.321,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.4315
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3469
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2782,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0216,
"implied_prob": 0.2474,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.321,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.4315
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2609
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3744,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0419,
"ev": -0.1624,
"implied_prob": 0.4315,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.321,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.4315
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3896
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0386,
"ev": 0.1116,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": 0.1095,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.1456,
"ev": -0.3131,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.148,
"alpha_yes": 0.2035,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1151,
"edge_yes": -0.1151,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3133,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0381,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1189,
"implied_no": 0.3409,
"implied_yes": 0.6591,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.355
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2035,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.6626,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6385
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.355,
"p_final_yes": 0.6385,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1864,
"alpha_under": 0.1356,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.56,
"edge_over": -0.1678,
"edge_under": 0.1678,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1379,
"ev_under": 0.4245,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0379,
"implied_over": 0.6498,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6465,
"implied_under": 0.3502,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3535,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1864,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0307,
"ev": -0.1379,
"implied_prob": 0.6465,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6158
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1356,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3758
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6158,
"p_final_under": 0.3758,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Manchester City Sub-21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Manchester City Sub-21 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Manchester City Sub-21 as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Manchester City Sub-21).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0026,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3460207612456747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Manchester City Sub-21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.3374,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.3374,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.355
},
"p_final": 0.355,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0381,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2035,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.6626,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6385
}
},
"edge": 0.1151,
"ev": 0.3133,
"implied_prob": 0.3409,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1356,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0223,
"market_prob": 0.3535,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1864,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0307,
"ev": -0.1379,
"implied_prob": 0.6465,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6158
},
"p_final": 0.3758,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0379,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1356,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3758
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1678,
"ev": 0.4245,
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1588835,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4245,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3133,
"implied_prob": 0.3409,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3133,
"implied_prob": 0.3409,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Manchester City Sub-21",
"home": "Chesterfield"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.153924,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4245,
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0026,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3460207612456747,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1588835,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T17:59:34.129752+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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