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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Chemnitzer FC Chemnitzer FC ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Chemnitzer FC win · BSG Chemie Leipzig 1–3 Chemnitzer FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "90f60413f642f4b06fe55db8f755ab3909fab0a8e501cc09205d730deebd2583",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Chemnitzer FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Chemnitzer FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chemnitzer FC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1033,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4693,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Chemnitzer FC Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.13,
"market_odds": 1.95,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": -14.7,
"value_pct": -28.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "BSG Chemie Leipzig or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "BSG Chemie Leipzig or Chemnitzer FC",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Chemnitzer FC",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "BSG Chemie Leipzig or Chemnitzer FC",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Chemnitzer FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.2,
"implied_prob": 29.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "BSG Chemie Leipzig Win",
"model_prob": 33.8,
"odds": 3.38
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Chemnitzer FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.93,
"draw": 26.0,
"home": 27.07
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 15:57:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 15:33:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "BSG Chemie Leipzig",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.07,
"gap_pp": 6.68,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.0,
"gap_pp": 3.65,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.93,
"gap_pp": -10.33,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.41,
"gap_pp": -7.21,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.59,
"gap_pp": 7.21,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.38,
"early": 3.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.07,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.52,
"early": 3.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.0,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.93,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.41,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.59,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.6,
"ev": -0.225,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.2,
"market_prob": 0.1613,
"market_prob_pct": 16.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4447,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5391
},
"p_final": 0.4594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0671,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4594
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1085,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.8,
"text": "+10.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1085,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10247.65,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0077,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4187,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.4187,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4264
},
"p_final": 0.4264,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0081,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0705,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.234,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0085,
"ev": -0.1007,
"implied_prob": 0.5813,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5728
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0465,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.187,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4693,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0239,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chemnitzer FC",
"sort_key": 1794.025,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.34,
"hero_label": "Chemnitzer FC",
"market_prob_pct": 46.9,
"market_team": "Chemnitzer FC",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Chemnitzer FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chemnitzer FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chemnitzer FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1085,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1409,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chemnitzer FC at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chemnitzer FC as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chemnitzer FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chemnitzer FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1586873 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chemnitzer FC).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.187,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4693,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.34,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.34,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "BSG Chemie Leipzig",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chemnitzer FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chemnitzer FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1085,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1409,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chemnitzer FC at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chemnitzer FC as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chemnitzer FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chemnitzer FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1586873 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chemnitzer FC).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.187,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4693,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: BSG Chemie Leipzig 1.27 xG vs Chemnitzer FC 1.33 \u2192 Chemnitzer FC 36.6%",
"Market: Chemnitzer FC ~46.9% implied",
"Market Steam: BSG Chemie Leipzig +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chemnitzer FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.7,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "BSG Chemie Leipzig",
"market_prob": 27.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Chemnitzer FC",
"market_prob": 46.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.21,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.21,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.62,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.62,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Chemnitzer FC",
"market_prob_pct": 46.93,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "BSG Chemie Leipzig"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Chemnitzer FC\u0027s win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.34,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chemnitzer FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.3,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Chemnitzer FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: BSG Chemie Leipzig 1.27 xG vs Chemnitzer FC 1.33 \u2192 Chemnitzer FC 36.6%",
"Market: Chemnitzer FC ~46.9% implied",
"Market Steam: BSG Chemie Leipzig +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chemnitzer FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.34,
"hero_label": "Chemnitzer FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, BSG Chemie Leipzig has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Chemnitzer FC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on BSG Chemie Leipzig.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Chemnitzer FC than the current fair estimate.",
"However, BSG Chemie Leipzig has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on BSG Chemie Leipzig."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Chemnitzer FC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, BSG Chemie Leipzig has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on BSG Chemie Leipzig."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.34,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Chemnitzer FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Chemnitzer FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.7,
"edge_pp": 6.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "BSG Chemie Leipzig",
"market_prob_pct": 27.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.64,
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.34,
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chemnitzer FC",
"market_prob_pct": 46.93,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on BSG Chemie Leipzig.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chemnitzer FC (46.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chemnitzer FC, Market \u2192 Chemnitzer FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 3.54,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.54,
"pick_team": "BSG Chemie Leipzig",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "BSG Chemie Leipzig",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chemnitzer-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chemnitzer FC",
"away_team_id": 1328,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1328.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chemnitzer FC",
"away_team_public_id": "5mLIASGdvaL6zE",
"away_team_slug": "chemnitzer-fc",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1586873,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "BSG Chemie Leipzig",
"home_team_id": 1651,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1651.webp",
"home_team_name": "BSG Chemie Leipzig",
"home_team_public_id": "39oYAsb8FVZRI1",
"home_team_slug": "bsg-chemie-leipzig",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bsg-chemie-leipzig",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga Nordost",
"league_id": 85,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/85.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Nordost",
"league_public_id": "1WJdi4c2f3zSMM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 16:00:00",
"public_id": "1daIvhTZNZrOmW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.507,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0524,
"ev": -0.187,
"implied_prob": 0.4693,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4693,
"draw": 0.26,
"home": 0.2707
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4169
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2836,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.26,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4693,
"draw": 0.26,
"home": 0.2707
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2699,
"best_odd": 3.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0239,
"implied_prob": 0.2707,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4693,
"draw": 0.26,
"home": 0.2707
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2888
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.1468,
"ev": -0.2863,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": 0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.38,
"edge": 0.0417,
"ev": 0.1409,
"implied_prob": 0.2959,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2127,
"alpha_yes": 0.234,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0362,
"edge_yes": -0.0362,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0705,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1007,
"implied_no": 0.4188,
"implied_yes": 0.5812,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.4187,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4264
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.234,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0085,
"ev": -0.1007,
"implied_prob": 0.5813,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5728
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4264,
"p_final_yes": 0.5728,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2203,
"alpha_under": 0.2003,
"best_over_odd": 1.68,
"best_under_odd": 2.14,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.06,
"edge_over": -0.0721,
"edge_under": 0.0721,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1105,
"ev_under": 0.1085,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_over": 0.5541,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5553,
"implied_under": 0.4459,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4447,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5391
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4594
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5391,
"p_final_under": 0.4594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1085,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1409,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1085,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chemnitzer FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1085,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1409,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chemnitzer FC at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chemnitzer FC as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chemnitzer FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chemnitzer FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1586873 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chemnitzer FC).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.187,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4693,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
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"ev": -0.187,
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"max_ev_side": "home",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Chemnitzer FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0077,
"market_prob": 0.4187,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.4187,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4264
},
"p_final": 0.4264,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0705,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.234,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0085,
"ev": -0.1007,
"implied_prob": 0.5813,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5728
}
},
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4188,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.4447,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5391
},
"p_final": 0.4594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4594
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0721,
"ev": 0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.4459,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1586873,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1085,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chemnitzer FC",
"home": "BSG Chemie Leipzig"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.039342,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.4459,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.187,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4693,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1586873,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T15:57:14.965877+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Regionalliga Nordost — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | BFC Dynamo | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Altglienicke | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Erzgebirge Aue | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Magdeburg II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 12 | BFC Preussen | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Hertha Berlín II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 15 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | RSV Eintracht | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Tasmania Berlin | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 36 | 11 | +25 | 27 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 26 |
| 3 | Greifswalder FC | 11 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | BFC Dynamo | 11 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 6 | Altglienicke | 11 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 7 | Magdeburg II | 11 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 19 |
| 9 | Erzgebirge Aue | 10 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 21 |
| 10 | Hallescher FC | 11 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 22 |
| 11 | BFC Preussen | 11 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | RSV Eintracht | 11 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 6 |
| 13 | Tasmania Berlin | 11 | 13 | 36 | -23 | 5 |
| 14 | FSV Zwickau | 10 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 10 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Hertha Berlín II | 10 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
