Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Solihull Moors Yeovil Town ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Yeovil Town win · Yeovil Town 4–1 Solihull Moors
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "fd64bb8abac99e178dc9b72e3f81508c337a1a58ee3b3896af7ea5be9365ab07",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Yeovil Town and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Yeovil Town"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Solihull Moors",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0725,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.298,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.19
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.19,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Solihull Moors Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.36,
"market_odds": 3.19,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": 5.7,
"value_pct": 18.1,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Yeovil Town or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Yeovil Town or Solihull Moors",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Solihull Moors",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Yeovil Town or Solihull Moors",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Solihull Moors"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.3,
"implied_prob": 31.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Solihull Moors Win",
"model_prob": 37.1,
"odds": 3.19
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Solihull Moors",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.8,
"draw": 25.56,
"home": 44.64
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:46:44",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:16:27",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Yeovil Town",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.64,
"gap_pp": -11.29,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.56,
"gap_pp": 4.04,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.8,
"gap_pp": 7.25,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.18,
"gap_pp": -8.98,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.82,
"gap_pp": 8.98,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.64,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.72,
"early": 3.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.56,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.19,
"early": 3.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.18,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.23,
"early": 2.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.82,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0165,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4339,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.5661,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5479
},
"p_final": 0.4504,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1085,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0361,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0361,
"implied_prob": 0.4339,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4504
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.5,
"text": "+14.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1448,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10280.32,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1677,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0076,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4094,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1677,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4171
},
"p_final": 0.4171,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0237,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0616,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2306,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0951,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.58
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0465,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0126,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0126,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1819,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Solihull Moors",
"sort_key": 5210.08,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"alert_team": "Solihull Moors",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.33,
"hero_label": "Yeovil Town",
"market_prob_pct": 29.8,
"market_team": "Yeovil Town",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Solihull Moors",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Solihull Moors)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Solihull Moors)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.182,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Solihull Moors at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Solihull Moors as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Solihull Moors",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Solihull Moors \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1585233 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Solihull Moors).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0126,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1819,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.33,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.33,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"steam_team": "Solihull Moors",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Solihull Moors)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Solihull Moors)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.182,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Solihull Moors at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Solihull Moors as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Solihull Moors",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Solihull Moors \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1585233 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Solihull Moors).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0126,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1819,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yeovil Town 1.26 xG vs Solihull Moors 1.34 \u2192 Solihull Moors 37.1%",
"Market: Yeovil Town ~29.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Solihull Moors \u2193 -17.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Solihull Moors with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.33,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Yeovil Town",
"market_prob": 44.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.26,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Solihull Moors",
"market_prob": 29.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.46,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.46,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.51,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.51,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Yeovil Town",
"market_prob_pct": 44.64,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Solihull Moors"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Yeovil Town\u0027s win probability at 44.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Solihull Moors",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.3,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Solihull Moors \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yeovil Town 1.26 xG vs Solihull Moors 1.34 \u2192 Solihull Moors 37.1%",
"Market: Yeovil Town ~29.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Solihull Moors \u2193 -17.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Solihull Moors with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.33,
"hero_label": "Yeovil Town",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Solihull Moors odds shortened \u2193 -17.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Solihull Moors, with odds shortening by 17.9%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Yeovil Town than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Solihull Moors \u2014 odds shortened by 17.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Yeovil Town than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Solihull Moors, with odds shortening by 17.9%.",
"Buying interest on Solihull Moors \u2014 odds shortened by 17.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Yeovil Town more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Solihull Moors has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.9%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Solihull Moors."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Yeovil Town",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Yeovil Town higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.33,
"edge_pp": -11.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Yeovil Town",
"market_prob_pct": 44.64,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.07,
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.56,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.26,
"edge_pp": 7.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Solihull Moors",
"market_prob_pct": 29.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Solihull Moors \u2014 odds shortened by 17.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Yeovil Town (29.8%).",
"However, Solihull Moors has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.9%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Solihull Moors, Market \u2192 Yeovil Town, Recent sharp money \u2192 Solihull Moors.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Solihull Moors (17.9% steam, score 90) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.54",
"3.19"
],
"display": "4.20 \u2192 2.83 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 15m",
"pick_team": "Solihull Moors",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.9,
3.19,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,17.7",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.19"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.9,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Solihull Moors \u2193 -17.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Solihull Moors",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Solihull Moors \u2193 -17.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Solihull Moors",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Solihull Moors",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_team_name": "Solihull Moors",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "solihull-moors",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Solihull Moors",
"away_team_id": 1834,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1834.webp",
"away_team_name": "Solihull Moors",
"away_team_public_id": "5SW0Bo1IXdiLwG",
"away_team_slug": "solihull-moors",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1585233,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Yeovil Town",
"home_team_id": 1377,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1377.webp",
"home_team_name": "Yeovil Town",
"home_team_public_id": "0CtDA1G1nnc5s6",
"home_team_slug": "yeovil-town",
"ht.home_team_slug": "yeovil-town",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League",
"league_id": 43,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/43.webp",
"league_name": "National League",
"league_public_id": "0QUTIt5OMsEkqf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3HK3Z6gS0q78JK",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Yeovil",
"venue_name": "Huish Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2674,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0126,
"implied_prob": 0.298,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.298,
"draw": 0.2556,
"home": 0.4464
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3174
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2818,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0069,
"implied_prob": 0.2556,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.298,
"draw": 0.2556,
"home": 0.4464
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.267
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3738,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0422,
"ev": -0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.298,
"draw": 0.2556,
"home": 0.4464
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.4042
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": 0.0571,
"ev": 0.182,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0272,
"ev": 0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.2688,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.136,
"ev": -0.2897,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1677,
"alpha_yes": 0.2306,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0451,
"edge_yes": -0.0451,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0616,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0951,
"implied_no": 0.4099,
"implied_yes": 0.5901,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1677,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4171
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2306,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0951,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.58
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4171,
"p_final_yes": 0.58,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2163,
"alpha_under": 0.1966,
"best_over_odd": 1.68,
"best_under_odd": 2.21,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.14,
"edge_over": -0.0846,
"edge_under": 0.0846,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1014,
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0361,
"implied_over": 0.5666,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5661,
"implied_under": 0.4334,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4339,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.5661,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5479
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0361,
"implied_prob": 0.4339,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4504
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5479,
"p_final_under": 0.4504,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.182,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Solihull Moors)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.182,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Solihull Moors at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Solihull Moors as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Solihull Moors",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Solihull Moors \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1585233 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Solihull Moors).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0126,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1819,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0126,
"implied_prob": 0.298,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Solihull Moors"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1677,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0076,
"market_prob": 0.4094,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1677,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4171
},
"p_final": 0.4171,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0616,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2306,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0951,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.58
}
},
"edge": 0.0451,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0165,
"market_prob": 0.4339,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.5661,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5479
},
"p_final": 0.4504,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0361,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0361,
"implied_prob": 0.4339,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4504
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0846,
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.4334,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1585233,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1448,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Solihull Moors",
"home": "Yeovil Town"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052504,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.4334,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0126,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1819,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1585233,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T18:46:46.714487+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Yeovil Town & Solihull Moors!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
National League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sutton United | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Altrincham | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 11 | Worthing | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 14 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 15 | Boston United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Carlisle United | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Barrow | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 18 | Woking | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Tamworth FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe United | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Worthing | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Carlisle United | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Tamworth FC | 9 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 11 | Boston United | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 9 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | Eastleigh | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 15 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Barrow | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe United | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 15 |
| 20 | Sutton United | 9 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 21 | Woking | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 |
| 23 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
