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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Carlisle United Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Carlisle United 2–2 Southend United
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9b730a3a4d3524a67b64adb855679a41f1232cae9982b2c293a4f66ddff7c862",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": 0.3285,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.04,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"home_win_prob": 0.3754,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Carlisle United or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Carlisle United"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Carlisle United",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0349,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4106,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.9,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.32
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.32,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Carlisle United Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.44,
"market_odds": 2.32,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -5.5,
"value_pct": -12.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Carlisle United or Draw",
"prob": 67.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Carlisle United or Southend United",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Southend United",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Carlisle United or Southend United",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Carlisle United"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.2,
"implied_prob": 27.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.62
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Southend United",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.62,
"draw": 26.32,
"home": 41.06
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 16:29:49",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 16:00:59",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Carlisle United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.06,
"gap_pp": -3.49,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.32,
"gap_pp": 3.25,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.62,
"gap_pp": 0.25,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.78,
"gap_pp": -10.58,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.22,
"gap_pp": 10.58,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.06,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.62,
"early": 3.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.32,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.92,
"early": 2.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.78,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.31,
"early": 2.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.22,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.7,
"ev": -0.05,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.6,
"market_prob": 0.1316,
"market_prob_pct": 13.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.205,
"edge": 0.015,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4205,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.5795,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5589
},
"p_final": 0.4355,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1422,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0398,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"best_odd": 2.205,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.4205,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4355
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1966,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10326.94,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1615,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.011,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.3866,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1615,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.3866,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3976
},
"p_final": 0.3976,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0829,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2221,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.6134,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5982
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.092,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10082.8,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.082,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.2,
"text": "-8.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0138,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.4,
"text": "-1.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Carlisle United",
"sort_key": 1796.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"alert_team": "Carlisle United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.52,
"hero_label": "Carlisle United",
"market_prob_pct": 41.1,
"market_team": "Carlisle United",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Carlisle United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Carlisle United at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Carlisle United as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Carlisle United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.082,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.52,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.52,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"steam_team": "Carlisle United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Carlisle United at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Carlisle United as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Carlisle United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.082,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Carlisle United 1.35 xG vs Southend United 1.25 \u2192 Carlisle United 37.5%",
"Market: Carlisle United ~41.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Carlisle United odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Carlisle United, but the market has moved away from Carlisle United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.52,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Carlisle United",
"market_prob": 41.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.29,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.23,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Southend United",
"market_prob": 32.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.87,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.87,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.62,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.62,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Carlisle United",
"market_prob_pct": 41.06,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Carlisle United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.52,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Carlisle United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Carlisle United 1.35 xG vs Southend United 1.25 \u2192 Carlisle United 37.5%",
"Market: Carlisle United ~41.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Carlisle United odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Carlisle United, but the market has moved away from Carlisle United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.52,
"hero_label": "Carlisle United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Carlisle United odds lengthened \u2191 +4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Carlisle United (\u2191 +4.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.52,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Carlisle United",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.52,
"edge_pp": -3.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Carlisle United",
"market_prob_pct": 41.06,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.29,
"edge_pp": 3.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.32,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.23,
"edge_pp": 0.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Southend United",
"market_prob_pct": 32.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Carlisle United (41.1%).",
"Carlisle United odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.8%, 2/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Carlisle United, Market \u2192 Carlisle United, while Carlisle United odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.1,
"closing_odds": 2.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.1,
"entry_odds": 2.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 151h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Carlisle United (swing 2.32 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.20) \u2014 net 4.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.32",
"2.21",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.32 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 151h 56m",
"pick_team": "Carlisle United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.32,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Carlisle United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Carlisle United while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Carlisle United",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Carlisle United",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_team_name": "Carlisle United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "southend",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Southend United",
"away_team_id": 1341,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1341.webp",
"away_team_name": "Southend United",
"away_team_public_id": "1FwwsvltXpo3LD",
"away_team_slug": "southend",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1585220,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Carlisle United",
"home_team_id": 1371,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1371.webp",
"home_team_name": "Carlisle United",
"home_team_public_id": "3VamZZAUD902ho",
"home_team_slug": "carlisle",
"ht.home_team_slug": "carlisle",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League",
"league_id": 43,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/43.webp",
"league_name": "National League",
"league_public_id": "0QUTIt5OMsEkqf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 16:30:00",
"public_id": "1xoo3NpZh69HCQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Carlisle United",
"venue_name": "Brunton Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4483,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3262,
"draw": 0.2632,
"home": 0.4106
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3273
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2854,
"best_odd": 3.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0138,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3262,
"draw": 0.2632,
"home": 0.4106
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2724
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4264,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0149,
"ev": -0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.4106,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3262,
"draw": 0.2632,
"home": 0.4106
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3957
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.62,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.2762,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0554,
"ev": -0.1285,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1615,
"alpha_yes": 0.2221,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0662,
"edge_yes": -0.0662,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1027,
"implied_no": 0.3888,
"implied_yes": 0.6112,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1615,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.3866,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3976
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2221,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.6134,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5982
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3976,
"p_final_yes": 0.5982,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2113,
"alpha_under": 0.1537,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.31,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.205,
"edge_over": -0.0987,
"edge_under": 0.0987,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1058,
"ev_under": 0.1966,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0398,
"implied_over": 0.5807,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5795,
"implied_under": 0.4193,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4205,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.5795,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5589
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"best_odd": 2.205,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.4205,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4355
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5589,
"p_final_under": 0.4355,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Carlisle United at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Carlisle United as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Carlisle United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Carlisle United, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.082,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0149,
"ev": -0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.4106,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Carlisle United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1615,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.011,
"market_prob": 0.3866,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1615,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.3866,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3976
},
"p_final": 0.3976,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2221,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.6134,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5982
}
},
"edge": 0.0662,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.3888,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.205,
"edge": 0.015,
"market_prob": 0.4205,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.5795,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5589
},
"p_final": 0.4355,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0398,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1537,
"best_odd": 2.205,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.4205,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4355
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0987,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.4193,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1585220,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1966,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Southend United",
"home": "Carlisle United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.071287,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.4193,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.082,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4310344827586207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1585220,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T16:29:51.788548+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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National League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sutton United | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Altrincham | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 11 | Worthing | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 14 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 15 | Boston United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Carlisle United | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Barrow | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 18 | Woking | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Tamworth FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe United | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Worthing | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Carlisle United | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Tamworth FC | 9 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 11 | Boston United | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 9 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | Eastleigh | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 15 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Barrow | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe United | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 15 |
| 20 | Sutton United | 9 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 21 | Woking | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 |
| 23 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
