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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 FC Saarbrücken FC Ingolstadt 04 ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.08
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
FC Ingolstadt 04 win · FC Saarbrücken 0–1 FC Ingolstadt 04
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3428,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.379,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2707,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.69,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.59,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.56,
"home_win_prob": 0.3866,
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"over_25_prob": 0.581,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.419
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or FC Ingolstadt 04 and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "FC Ingolstadt 04"
},
"away_xg": 1.46,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0705,
"edge_gap": 0.0437,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4568,
"model_prob": 0.3863,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.3,
"draw": 27.1,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.08
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.08,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.19,
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"model_odds": 2.59,
"overround": 5.3,
"prob_edge": -9.5,
"value_pct": -19.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 76.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 79.0,
"no_prob": 37.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 62.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 62.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.46,
"home_expected": 1.56,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken or FC Ingolstadt 04",
"prob": 73.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04",
"prob": 61.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken or FC Ingolstadt 04",
"pick_prob": 73.0
},
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"lean_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 3.02,
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"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 3.5,
"over_prob": 58.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.02,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 9.2,
"implied_prob": 24.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 27.1,
"odds": 4.03
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.75,
"draw": 23.58,
"home": 45.68
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 11:57:27",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 11:33:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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"gap_pp": -7.05,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.63
},
{
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"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.11
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.75,
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.08,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.03,
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},
{
"closing": 3.09,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.51,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"label": "1-1",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
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"prob": 11.1
},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.56,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0102,
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"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.3626,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1156,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
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"p_final": 0.6057
},
"p_final": 0.3904,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0028,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0708,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2637,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.419,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0878,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.8,
"text": "-8.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0684,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.8,
"text": "+6.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0684,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 58.1,
"sort_key": 10211.56,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 41.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2733,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0044,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.3629,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.379,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
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},
"p_final": 0.3673,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0487,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.078,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3757,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.6371,
"model_prob": 0.621,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0612,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.1,
"text": "+6.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0685,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.9,
"text": "-6.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0612,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 37.9,
"sort_key": 10055.08,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 62.1
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1089,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.9,
"text": "-10.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0191,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3863,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"sort_key": 1795.225,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"alert_team": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.02,
"hero_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"market_prob_pct": 45.7,
"market_team": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_team": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0926,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Saarbr\u00fccken at 38.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Saarbr\u00fccken as the value side (38.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1089,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3863,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.02,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.02,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.46,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.56,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.56,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.56 \u00b7 Away xG 1.46 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"steam_team": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0926,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Saarbr\u00fccken at 38.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Saarbr\u00fccken as the value side (38.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1089,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3863,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Saarbr\u00fccken 1.56 xG vs FC Ingolstadt 04 1.46 \u2192 FC Saarbr\u00fccken 38.7%",
"Market: FC Saarbr\u00fccken ~45.7% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Ingolstadt 04 odds \u2191 +3.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Saarbr\u00fccken with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.02,
"fair_prob": 38.66,
"label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"market_prob": 45.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.49,
"fair_prob": 27.07,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.53,
"fair_prob": 34.28,
"label": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"market_prob": 30.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.3,
"fair_prob": 58.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"fair_prob": 41.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.67,
"fair_prob": 62.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.67,
"fair_prob": 37.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.66,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"market_prob_pct": 45.68,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FC Ingolstadt 04"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FC Saarbr\u00fccken\u0027s win probability at 45.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.7%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.02,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Saarbr\u00fccken 1.56 xG vs FC Ingolstadt 04 1.46 \u2192 FC Saarbr\u00fccken 38.7%",
"Market: FC Saarbr\u00fccken ~45.7% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Ingolstadt 04 odds \u2191 +3.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Saarbr\u00fccken with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.02,
"hero_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "FC Ingolstadt 04 odds lengthened \u2191 +3.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, FC Ingolstadt 04 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on FC Saarbr\u00fccken. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from FC Ingolstadt 04 \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on FC Saarbr\u00fccken. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, FC Ingolstadt 04 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from FC Ingolstadt 04 \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices FC Saarbr\u00fccken above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, FC Ingolstadt 04 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.6%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.02,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.4 pp (at 38.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.4,
"max_prob_pct": 38.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices FC Saarbr\u00fccken higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.02,
"edge_pp": -7.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.66,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"market_prob_pct": 45.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.49,
"edge_pp": 3.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.53,
"edge_pp": 3.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.28,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"market_prob_pct": 30.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from FC Ingolstadt 04 \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Saarbr\u00fccken (45.7%).",
"FC Ingolstadt 04 odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.6%, 6/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"FC Saarbr\u00fccken \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.08,
"closing_odds": 2.08,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.08,
"entry_odds": 2.08,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 34h 22m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on FC Ingolstadt 04 (3.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.09",
"2.94",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.10 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 34h 22m",
"pick_team": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
3.09,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,11.8",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.09"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/9 sportsbooks on FC Ingolstadt 04",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-ingolstadt-04",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"away_team_id": 184,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/184.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"away_team_public_id": "3lmLtIj2MPXuOF",
"away_team_slug": "fc-ingolstadt-04",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1583988,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"home_team_id": 1639,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1639.webp",
"home_team_name": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"home_team_public_id": "4t9FKPbQWcWMHn",
"home_team_slug": "fc-saarbrucken",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fc-saarbrucken",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga",
"league_id": 80,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga",
"league_public_id": "0akjle0QoiBkC3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 12:00:00",
"public_id": "3cHJK5CIBBj1kA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Ludwigspark Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2842,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0191,
"implied_prob": 0.3075,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3075,
"draw": 0.2358,
"home": 0.4568
},
"model_prob": 0.3426,
"p_final": 0.3175
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1894,
"best_odd": 4.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0229,
"implied_prob": 0.2358,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3075,
"draw": 0.2358,
"home": 0.4568
},
"model_prob": 0.2711,
"p_final": 0.2425
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4024,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0284,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3075,
"draw": 0.2358,
"home": 0.4568
},
"model_prob": 0.3863,
"p_final": 0.4284
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.09,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": 0.0587,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.3426
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.03,
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": 0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.2481,
"model_prob": 0.2711
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0945,
"ev": -0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.3863
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2733,
"alpha_yes": 0.3757,
"best_no_odd": 2.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0167,
"edge_yes": -0.0167,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0612,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.078,
"ev_yes": -0.0685,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0976,
"implied_no": 0.3623,
"implied_yes": 0.6377,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2733,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"model_prob": 0.379,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3757,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.6371,
"model_prob": 0.621,
"p_final": 0.631
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3673,
"p_final_yes": 0.631,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3626,
"alpha_under": 0.2637,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.033,
"edge_under": 0.033,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0878,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1156,
"ev_under": 0.0684,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0708,
"implied_over": 0.614,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6198,
"implied_under": 0.386,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3802,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3626,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1156,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.581,
"p_final": 0.6057
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2637,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.419,
"p_final": 0.3904
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6057,
"p_final_under": 0.3904,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0926,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0684,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0926,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Saarbr\u00fccken at 38.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Saarbr\u00fccken as the value side (38.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1089,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3863,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.621,
"draw_prob": 0.2711,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3863,
"over_prob": 0.581,
"total_xg": 3.02,
"under_prob": 0.419,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0284,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3863,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2733,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0044,
"market_prob": 0.3629,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.379,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2733,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"model_prob": 0.379,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"p_final": 0.3673,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.078,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3757,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.6371,
"model_prob": 0.621,
"p_final": 0.631
}
},
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": 0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.379,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2637,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.419,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3626,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1156,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.581,
"p_final": 0.6057
},
"p_final": 0.3904,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0708,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2637,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.419,
"p_final": 0.3904
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.033,
"ev": 0.0684,
"implied_prob": 0.386,
"model_prob": 0.419,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1583988,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0684,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3426,
"draw": 0.2711,
"home": 0.3863
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
"home": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.027227,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0684,
"implied_prob": 0.386,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.419,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1089,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3863,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583988,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T11:57:29.358230+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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3. Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Verl | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Havelse | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | SV Meppen | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
