Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Široki Brijeg Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Široki Brijeg 1–1 BSK Banja Luka
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "18bf39f73b53344ae5c983a4c7e1aba12ca18f1a1d7b592c9a82393353bcc85c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : \u0160iroki Brijeg or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "\u0160iroki Brijeg"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1459,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5262,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.76
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.76,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "\u0160iroki Brijeg Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.9,
"market_odds": 1.76,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 8.0,
"prob_edge": -18.8,
"value_pct": -33.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg or BSK Banja Luka",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or BSK Banja Luka",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg or BSK Banja Luka",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 46.1,
"implied_prob": 22.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "BSK Banja Luka Win",
"model_prob": 32.4,
"odds": 4.51
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "BSK Banja Luka",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 20.53,
"draw": 26.84,
"home": 52.62
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 15:55:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 15:30:54",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.62,
"gap_pp": -14.59,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.84,
"gap_pp": 2.75,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.53,
"gap_pp": 11.84,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.03,
"gap_pp": 3.17,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.97,
"gap_pp": -3.17,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.76,
"early": 1.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.62,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.45,
"early": 3.45,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.84,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.51,
"early": 4.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.53,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.03,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.97,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0139,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4748,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2218,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5098
},
"p_final": 0.4888,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0499,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0567,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.4748,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4888
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.9,
"text": "-17.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0608,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.1,
"text": "+6.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0608,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10204.72,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg).",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1942,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.4,
"text": "-19.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0139,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.4,
"text": "+1.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3307,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"sort_key": 5211.12,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0051,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4584,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.4584,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4636
},
"p_final": 0.4636,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0264,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0636,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2388,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0836,
"implied_prob": 0.5416,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5359
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0935,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0122,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5209.76,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"alert_team": "BSK Banja Luka",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.61,
"hero_label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"market_prob_pct": 52.6,
"market_team": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0608,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.46,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u0160iroki Brijeg at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u0160iroki Brijeg as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side \u0160iroki Brijeg \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1582797 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1942,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3307,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.61,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.61,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"steam_team": "BSK Banja Luka",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0608,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.46,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u0160iroki Brijeg at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u0160iroki Brijeg as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side \u0160iroki Brijeg \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1582797 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1942,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3307,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u0160iroki Brijeg 1.36 xG vs BSK Banja Luka 1.24 \u2192 \u0160iroki Brijeg 38.0%",
"Market: \u0160iroki Brijeg ~52.6% implied",
"Market Drift: BSK Banja Luka odds \u2191 +18.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean \u0160iroki Brijeg with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.61,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"market_prob": 52.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.75,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.86,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "BSK Banja Luka",
"market_prob": 20.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.64,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.64,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.76,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.76,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"market_prob_pct": 52.62,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "BSK Banja Luka"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u0160iroki Brijeg\u0027s win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.61,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.6,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "\u0160iroki Brijeg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u0160iroki Brijeg 1.36 xG vs BSK Banja Luka 1.24 \u2192 \u0160iroki Brijeg 38.0%",
"Market: \u0160iroki Brijeg ~52.6% implied",
"Market Drift: BSK Banja Luka odds \u2191 +18.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean \u0160iroki Brijeg with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.61,
"hero_label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "BSK Banja Luka odds lengthened \u2191 +18.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, BSK Banja Luka has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about \u0160iroki Brijeg than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from BSK Banja Luka \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about \u0160iroki Brijeg than the current fair estimate.",
"However, BSK Banja Luka has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from BSK Banja Luka \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors \u0160iroki Brijeg more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, BSK Banja Luka has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.61,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u0160iroki Brijeg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.61,
"edge_pp": -14.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"market_prob_pct": 52.62,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.75,
"edge_pp": 2.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.86,
"edge_pp": 11.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "BSK Banja Luka",
"market_prob_pct": 20.53,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from BSK Banja Luka \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u0160iroki Brijeg (52.6%).",
"However, BSK Banja Luka has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.8%, 1/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"\u0160iroki Brijeg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 46h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on BSK Banja Luka (18.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.38",
"4.00"
],
"display": "4.88 \u2192 4.00 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 46h 23m",
"pick_team": "BSK Banja Luka",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.88"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
4.51,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,5.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "BSK Banja Luka",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "BSK Banja Luka",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "BSK Banja Luka",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "BSK Banja Luka",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bsk-banja-luka",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "BSK Banja Luka",
"away_team_id": 21736,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21736.webp",
"away_team_name": "BSK Banja Luka",
"away_team_public_id": "4F7ONoWcIVEsMm",
"away_team_slug": "bsk-banja-luka",
"country_code": "BA",
"country_display_name": "Bosnia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ba.svg",
"country_id": 22,
"country_name": "Bosnia",
"fixture_id": 1582797,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bosnia",
"home_team_display_name": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"home_team_id": 642,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/642.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"home_team_public_id": "0aCPFbBk3vD2B9",
"home_team_slug": "siroki-brijeg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "siroki-brijeg",
"league_country": "Bosnia",
"league_country_display": "Bosnia",
"league_display_name": "Premijer Liga de Bosnia",
"league_id": 315,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/315.webp",
"league_name": "Premijer Liga de Bosnia",
"league_public_id": "5IIF10db3lKcAm",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 16:00:00",
"public_id": "5HJuatOpC811W9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Stadion Pecara"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1645,
"best_odd": 4.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": 0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.2053,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2053,
"draw": 0.2684,
"home": 0.5262
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2248
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2876,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0466,
"implied_prob": 0.2684,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2053,
"draw": 0.2684,
"home": 0.5262
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2764
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4687,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0684,
"ev": -0.1942,
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2053,
"draw": 0.2684,
"home": 0.5262
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4578
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.51,
"edge": 0.102,
"ev": 0.46,
"implied_prob": 0.2217,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": 0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.1878,
"ev": -0.3306,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2218,
"alpha_yes": 0.2017,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0676,
"edge_yes": 0.0676,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1104,
"ev_yes": 0.0608,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0567,
"implied_no": 0.5236,
"implied_yes": 0.4764,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2218,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5098
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.4748,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4888
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5098,
"p_final_yes": 0.4888,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2171,
"alpha_under": 0.2388,
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.71,
"edge_over": 0.0264,
"edge_under": -0.0264,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0636,
"ev_under": -0.0935,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0836,
"implied_over": 0.4556,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4584,
"implied_under": 0.5444,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5416,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.4584,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4636
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2388,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0836,
"implied_prob": 0.5416,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5359
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4636,
"p_final_under": 0.5359,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0608,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.46,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0608,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0608,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.46,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u0160iroki Brijeg at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u0160iroki Brijeg as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u0160iroki Brijeg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side \u0160iroki Brijeg \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1582797 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0160iroki Brijeg).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1942,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3307,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0684,
"ev": -0.1942,
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u0160iroki Brijeg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0139,
"market_prob": 0.4748,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2218,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5098
},
"p_final": 0.4888,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0567,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2017,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.4748,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4888
}
},
"edge": 0.0676,
"ev": 0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0051,
"market_prob": 0.4584,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.4584,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4636
},
"p_final": 0.4636,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0636,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2388,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0836,
"implied_prob": 0.5416,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5359
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0264,
"ev": 0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.4556,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1582797,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0608,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "BSK Banja Luka",
"home": "\u0160iroki Brijeg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.033075,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1942,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3307,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1582797,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T15:55:17.520140+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Široki Brijeg & BSK Banja Luka!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Premijer Liga de Bosnia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski Mostar | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Željezničar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Široki Brijeg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež Mostar | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski Mostar | 8 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 4 |
| 5 | Čelik | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Željezničar Sarajevo | 8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Široki Brijeg | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Velež Mostar | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 9 |
