Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.54
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Nyva Ternopil 0–0 Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "df477cba133c0bd356789be20c5c7029716d72db62c4a6ee09a0f652404c3e20",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"away_win_prob": 0.4042,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.32,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"home_win_prob": 0.3014,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0546,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3502,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.5,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 30.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.54
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.54,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.86,
"market_odds": 2.54,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": 1.1,
"value_pct": 2.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 69.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.41,
"home_expected": 1.19,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Nyva Ternopil or Draw",
"prob": 59.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Nyva Ternopil or Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"prob": 69.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Nyva Ternopil or Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.4,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 30.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 2.8,
"implied_prob": 39.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk Win",
"model_prob": 40.5,
"odds": 2.54
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.02,
"draw": 31.54,
"home": 33.44
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 12:29:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 12:01:48",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.44,
"gap_pp": -3.32,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.54,
"gap_pp": -2.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.02,
"gap_pp": 5.46,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.24,
"gap_pp": 9.96,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.76,
"gap_pp": -9.96,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.66,
"early": 2.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.44,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.82,
"early": 2.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.54,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.54,
"early": 2.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.02,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.39,
"early": 2.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.24,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.48,
"early": 1.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.76,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.19,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0147,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3865,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"p_final": 0.4012,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1399,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1161,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5932
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.7,
"text": "+15.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1568,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10291.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0151,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4661,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5339,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5172
},
"p_final": 0.4813,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0677,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0519,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4813
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2077,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0732,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.3,
"text": "+7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0732,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10065.88,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0532,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.3,
"text": "-5.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0532,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.3,
"text": "-5.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"sort_key": 1786.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.4,
"hero_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"market_team": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0532,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.4,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0532,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nyva Ternopil 1.19 xG vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.41 \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 40.4%",
"Market: Ahrobiznes Volochysk ~35.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Nyva Ternopil +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ahrobiznes Volochysk with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.3,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Nyva Ternopil",
"market_prob": 33.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.1,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.4,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"market_prob": 35.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.44,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.64,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.64,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"market_prob_pct": 35.02,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk\u0027s win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 35.0%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nyva Ternopil 1.19 xG vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.41 \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 40.4%",
"Market: Ahrobiznes Volochysk ~35.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Nyva Ternopil +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ahrobiznes Volochysk with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.4,
"hero_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.4,
"lead": "The model rates Ahrobiznes Volochysk considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.3,
"edge_pp": -3.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Nyva Ternopil",
"market_prob_pct": 33.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.1,
"edge_pp": -2.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.54,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.4,
"edge_pp": 5.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"market_prob_pct": 35.02,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ahrobiznes Volochysk (35.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk, Market \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.37,
"closing_odds": 2.54,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.37,
"entry_odds": 2.54,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ahrobiznes-volochysk",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"away_team_id": 3620,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3620.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"away_team_public_id": "4mbQTmp3ZTltIW",
"away_team_slug": "ahrobiznes-volochysk",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1581916,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
"home_team_id": 6493,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6493.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
"home_team_public_id": "1DXJcgtSoz75sv",
"home_team_slug": "nyva-ternopil",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nyva-ternopil",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Persha Liga de Ucrania",
"league_id": 334,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/334.webp",
"league_name": "Persha Liga de Ucrania",
"league_public_id": "4wkMf1hs6IaUBB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 12:30:00",
"public_id": "4omV5S7Xu7csGk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ternopil",
"venue_name": "Ternopilsky Misky Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4131,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0532,
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3502,
"draw": 0.3154,
"home": 0.3344
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.3727
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4356,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.1367,
"implied_prob": 0.3154,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3502,
"draw": 0.3154,
"home": 0.3344
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.3061
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4276,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.1483,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3502,
"draw": 0.3154,
"home": 0.3344
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3202
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": 0.0282,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.4048
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.0605,
"ev": -0.1707,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.0748,
"ev": -0.1989,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.3012
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2193,
"alpha_yes": 0.1994,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 1.98,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0764,
"edge_yes": 0.0764,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2077,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1104,
"ev_yes": 0.0732,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0519,
"implied_no": 0.5344,
"implied_yes": 0.4656,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5339,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5172
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4813
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5172,
"p_final_yes": 0.4813,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1542,
"alpha_under": 0.212,
"best_over_odd": 2.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.365,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.49,
"edge_over": 0.0844,
"edge_under": -0.0844,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0511,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1161,
"implied_over": 0.3976,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3865,
"implied_under": 0.6024,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6135,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1161,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5932
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4012,
"p_final_under": 0.5932,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0532,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0532,
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.4661,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5339,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5172
},
"p_final": 0.4813,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0519,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4813
}
},
"edge": 0.0764,
"ev": 0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.4656,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.3865,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1542,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"p_final": 0.4012,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1161,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5932
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0844,
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3976,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1581916,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1568,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.4656,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.4656,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"home": "Nyva Ternopil"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052904,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3976,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0532,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3502,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1581916,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:29:28.385837+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Nyva Ternopil & Ahrobiznes Volochysk!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Persha Liga de Ucrania — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Oleksandria | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Kulykiv | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Prykarpattia | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Yarud Mariupol' | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Metal Kharkiv | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Inhulets Petrove | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | UCSA | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Polissya II | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 10 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 17 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 10 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 10 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 10 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | UCSA | 10 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Polissya II | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 7 |
| 7 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
| 8 | Prykarpattia | 10 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 | Yarud Mariupol' | 9 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 10 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Metal Kharkiv | 10 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 10 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Inhulets Petrove | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 9 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 10 | 8 | 27 | -19 | 5 |
