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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Llanelli AFC Baglan Dragons ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Baglan Dragons win · Llanelli AFC 1–2 Baglan Dragons
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ab3c90f9209f2475994b5d093486c7a36ecd68b9c3eecd0ccf810ce82999b495",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.03,
"away_win_prob": 0.2331,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.475,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.525,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2838,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.29,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.52,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.07,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.57,
"home_win_prob": 0.483,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Baglan Dragons",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Llanelli AFC",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Baglan Dragons"
},
"away_xg": 1.03,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Llanelli AFC",
"confidence": 48.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Llanelli AFC",
"edge": 0.1742,
"edge_gap": 0.1989,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3087,
"model_prob": 0.483,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 23.3,
"draw": 28.4,
"home": 48.3
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Llanelli AFC"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.93
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.93,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Llanelli AFC Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.24,
"market_odds": 2.93,
"model_odds": 2.07,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": 14.2,
"value_pct": 41.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 64.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 79.2,
"no_prob": 47.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 52.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.03,
"home_expected": 1.57,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Llanelli AFC or Draw",
"prob": 76.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Llanelli AFC or Baglan Dragons",
"prob": 71.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Baglan Dragons",
"prob": 51.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Llanelli AFC or Draw",
"pick_prob": 76.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 23.3,
"draw_pct": 28.4,
"home_pct": 48.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Llanelli AFC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 41.5,
"implied_prob": 34.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Llanelli AFC Win",
"model_prob": 48.3,
"odds": 2.93
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Baglan Dragons",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.34,
"draw": 24.78,
"home": 30.87
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 18:29:20",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 17:59:34",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Llanelli AFC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.87,
"gap_pp": 17.42,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 48.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.78,
"gap_pp": 3.62,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.34,
"gap_pp": -21.04,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 23.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.32,
"gap_pp": -7.12,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.68,
"gap_pp": 7.12,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.93,
"early": 2.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.87,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.65,
"early": 3.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.78,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.34,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.32,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.68,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.002,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.35,
"market_prob": 0.1198,
"market_prob_pct": 12.0,
"model_prob": 0.12,
"model_prob_pct": 12.0,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.57,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0743,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.4,
"text": "+7.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3087,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0743,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.4,
"text": "+7.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.483,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+41.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Llanelli AFC",
"sort_key": 10216.87,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2011,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0143,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4471,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2212,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5529,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5372
},
"p_final": 0.4614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0697,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0473,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2011,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0473,
"implied_prob": 0.4471,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4614
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.093,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.3,
"text": "+9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.093,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10083.7,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0101,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4133,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.475,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0685,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.475,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"p_final": 0.4234,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.045,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0685,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.525,
"p_final": 0.5728
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.064,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.4,
"text": "+6.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.16,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.0,
"text": "-16.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.064,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 47.5,
"sort_key": 10057.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 52.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"alert_team": "Llanelli AFC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 21.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.03,
"hero_label": "Baglan Dragons",
"market_prob_pct": 30.9,
"market_team": "Baglan Dragons",
"model_prob_pct": 48.3,
"model_team": "Llanelli AFC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 83,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Llanelli AFC), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Llanelli AFC), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.093,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4151,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Llanelli AFC at 48.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Llanelli AFC as the value side (48.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Llanelli AFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Llanelli AFC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1580760 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Llanelli AFC), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0743,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3087,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.483,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+41.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.54"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.54
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.03,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.03,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.03,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.57,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.57,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.57 \u00b7 Away xG 1.03 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"steam_team": "Llanelli AFC",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Llanelli AFC), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Llanelli AFC), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Llanelli AFC), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.093,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4151,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Llanelli AFC at 48.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Llanelli AFC as the value side (48.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Llanelli AFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Llanelli AFC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1580760 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Llanelli AFC), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0743,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3087,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.483,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+41.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.54"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.54
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Llanelli AFC 1.57 xG vs Baglan Dragons 1.03 \u2192 Llanelli AFC 48.3%",
"Market: Baglan Dragons ~30.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Llanelli AFC \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Llanelli AFC, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.43,
"fair_prob": 48.3,
"label": "Llanelli AFC",
"market_prob": 30.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"fair_prob": 28.38,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.03,
"fair_prob": 23.31,
"label": "Baglan Dragons",
"market_prob": 44.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.73,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.73,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.87,
"fair_prob": 52.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.87,
"fair_prob": 47.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -21.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.31,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Baglan Dragons",
"market_prob_pct": 44.34,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Llanelli AFC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Baglan Dragons\u0027s win probability at 44.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 23.3%, a difference of 21.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 21.03,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Llanelli AFC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.4,
"model_prob_pct": 48.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Llanelli AFC \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+17.4 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Llanelli AFC 1.57 xG vs Baglan Dragons 1.03 \u2192 Llanelli AFC 48.3%",
"Market: Baglan Dragons ~30.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Llanelli AFC \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Llanelli AFC, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.03,
"hero_label": "Baglan Dragons",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Llanelli AFC odds shortened \u2193 -17.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 19.9 pp (at 48.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 19.9,
"max_prob_pct": 48.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Baglan Dragons",
"largest_gap_pp": -21.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Baglan Dragons higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 21.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 17.43,
"edge_pp": 17.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.3,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Llanelli AFC",
"market_prob_pct": 30.87,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.6,
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.78,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -21.03,
"edge_pp": -21.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Baglan Dragons",
"market_prob_pct": 44.34,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Baglan Dragons (30.9%).",
"However, Llanelli AFC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.1%, 5/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Llanelli AFC, Market \u2192 Baglan Dragons, Recent sharp money \u2192 Llanelli AFC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
"closing_odds": 2.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.02,
"entry_odds": 2.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.7
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/7 books synchronized on Llanelli AFC (17.1% steam, score 83) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.20",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.80 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 54m",
"pick_team": "Llanelli AFC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
2.93,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,17.1 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Llanelli AFC \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Llanelli AFC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Llanelli AFC \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Llanelli AFC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 83,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Llanelli AFC",
"steam_score": 83,
"steam_team_name": "Llanelli AFC",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 21.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "baglan-dragons",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Baglan Dragons",
"away_team_id": 20358,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20358.webp",
"away_team_name": "Baglan Dragons",
"away_team_public_id": "5Uk14ccC6jsI1p",
"away_team_slug": "baglan-dragons",
"country_code": "GB-WLS",
"country_display_name": "Wales",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-wls.svg",
"country_id": 167,
"country_name": "Wales",
"fixture_id": 1580760,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Wales",
"home_team_display_name": "Llanelli AFC",
"home_team_id": 355,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/355.webp",
"home_team_name": "Llanelli AFC",
"home_team_public_id": "3OPxwIByy84UmM",
"home_team_slug": "llanelli-afc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "llanelli-afc",
"league_country": "Wales",
"league_country_display": "Wales",
"league_display_name": "Campeonato FAW",
"league_id": 111,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/111.webp",
"league_name": "Campeonato FAW",
"league_public_id": "1vRup4lQvPxvya",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 18:30:00",
"public_id": "1CRpqbiV4ISO1D",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Llanelli",
"venue_name": "Stebonheath Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.308,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0648,
"ev": -0.2276,
"implied_prob": 0.4434,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4434,
"draw": 0.2478,
"home": 0.3087
},
"model_prob": 0.233,
"p_final": 0.3786
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4434,
"draw": 0.2478,
"home": 0.3087
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.2581
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3324,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0579,
"ev": 0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.3087,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4434,
"draw": 0.2478,
"home": 0.3087
},
"model_prob": 0.483,
"p_final": 0.3666
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.2572,
"ev": -0.5246,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.233
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": 0.0366,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.284
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.93,
"edge": 0.1417,
"ev": 0.4151,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.483
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1633,
"alpha_yes": 0.2246,
"best_no_odd": 2.24,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0587,
"edge_yes": -0.0587,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.064,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0685,
"ev_yes": -0.16,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1121,
"implied_no": 0.4163,
"implied_yes": 0.5837,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0685,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.475,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.525,
"p_final": 0.5728
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4234,
"p_final_yes": 0.5728,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2212,
"alpha_under": 0.2011,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.065,
"edge_over": -0.0673,
"edge_under": 0.0673,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1029,
"ev_under": 0.093,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0473,
"implied_over": 0.5493,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5529,
"implied_under": 0.4507,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4471,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2212,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5529,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5372
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2011,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0473,
"implied_prob": 0.4471,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4614
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5372,
"p_final_under": 0.4614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.093,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4151,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.093,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 5.5,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Llanelli AFC), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.093,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4151,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Llanelli AFC at 48.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Llanelli AFC as the value side (48.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Llanelli AFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Llanelli AFC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1580760 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Llanelli AFC), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0743,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3087,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.483,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+41.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.54"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.54
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.525,
"draw_prob": 0.284,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.483,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.54
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0579,
"ev": 0.0743,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3087,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.483,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Llanelli AFC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0101,
"market_prob": 0.4133,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.475,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1633,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0685,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.475,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"p_final": 0.4234,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0685,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.525,
"p_final": 0.5728
}
},
"edge": 0.0587,
"ev": 0.064,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4163,
"model_prob": 0.475,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2011,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0143,
"market_prob": 0.4471,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2212,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5529,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5372
},
"p_final": 0.4614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0473,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2011,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0473,
"implied_prob": 0.4471,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4614
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0673,
"ev": 0.093,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4507,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1580760,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.093,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.233,
"draw": 0.284,
"home": 0.483
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.4507,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.4507,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Baglan Dragons",
"home": "Llanelli AFC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.039476,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.3087,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.483,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Llanelli AFC",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0743,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3087,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.483,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+41.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1580760,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T18:29:22.718072+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Campeonato FAW — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Treowen Stars | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Newport City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Caerphilly Athletic | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Llanelli AFC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 8 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 20 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 19 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 9 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 10 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Newport City | 7 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 8 |
| 12 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 13 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Caerphilly Athletic | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 |
| 16 | Llanelli AFC | 10 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 2 |
