Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Llanelli AFC Llantwit Major ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Llantwit Major win · Llantwit Major 2–0 Llanelli AFC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c6c85999e5d3b2f19743ecb06145d1ac83110f00564a78c65afad50c95ff2865",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"away_win_prob": 0.4091,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.44,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.37,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"home_win_prob": 0.2969,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Llanelli AFC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Llanelli AFC"
},
"away_xg": 1.42,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Llanelli AFC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.158,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2515,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.0,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 29.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.6
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.6,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Llanelli AFC Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.98,
"market_odds": 3.6,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 10.4,
"prob_edge": 13.2,
"value_pct": 47.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 75.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 69.3,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
"home_expected": 1.18,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Llantwit Major or Draw",
"prob": 59.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Llantwit Major or Llanelli AFC",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Llanelli AFC",
"prob": 70.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Llantwit Major or Llanelli AFC",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.9,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 29.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Llanelli AFC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 47.5,
"implied_prob": 27.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Llanelli AFC Win",
"model_prob": 41.0,
"odds": 3.6
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Llanelli AFC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.15,
"draw": 22.81,
"home": 52.04
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:32:14",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:09:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Llantwit Major",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.04,
"gap_pp": -22.39,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.81,
"gap_pp": 6.58,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.15,
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.52,
"gap_pp": -16.32,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.48,
"gap_pp": 16.32,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.04,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.97,
"early": 3.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.81,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.15,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.52,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.6,
"early": 2.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.48,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.07,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.18,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1462,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0183,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3927,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.201,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.6073,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5821
},
"p_final": 0.411,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2018,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0465,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1462,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.3927,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.411
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2384,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.8,
"text": "-23.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 34.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3468,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10462.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"edge": 0.014,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3692,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0573,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3832
},
"p_final": 0.3832,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1291,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0573,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6115
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1475,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.8,
"text": "+14.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1614,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1475,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10132.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0357,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0357,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4746,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Llanelli AFC",
"sort_key": 10032.13,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 22.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -22.35,
"hero_label": "Llantwit Major",
"market_prob_pct": 25.1,
"market_team": "Llantwit Major",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Llanelli AFC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4744,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Llanelli AFC at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Llanelli AFC as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Llanelli AFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Llanelli AFC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1580756 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +34.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0357,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2777777777777778,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4746,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (22 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 22.35,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 22.35,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Llantwit Major",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4744,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Llanelli AFC at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Llanelli AFC as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Llanelli AFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Llanelli AFC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1580756 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +34.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0357,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2777777777777778,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4746,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Llantwit Major 1.18 xG vs Llanelli AFC 1.42 \u2192 Llanelli AFC 40.9%",
"Market: Llantwit Major ~25.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Llantwit Major +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Llanelli AFC, but market pricing diverges by 22 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -22.35,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Llantwit Major",
"market_prob": 52.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.76,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Llanelli AFC",
"market_prob": 25.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.7,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.7,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.81,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.81,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -22.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Llantwit Major",
"market_prob_pct": 52.04,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Llantwit Major"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Llantwit Major\u0027s win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 22.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 22.35,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Llanelli AFC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.8,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Llantwit Major 1.18 xG vs Llanelli AFC 1.42 \u2192 Llanelli AFC 40.9%",
"Market: Llantwit Major ~25.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Llantwit Major +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Llanelli AFC, but market pricing diverges by 22 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -22.35,
"hero_label": "Llantwit Major",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 22.35,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Llantwit Major",
"largest_gap_pp": -22.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Llantwit Major higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 22.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -22.35,
"edge_pp": -22.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Llantwit Major",
"market_prob_pct": 52.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.59,
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.81,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.76,
"edge_pp": 15.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Llanelli AFC",
"market_prob_pct": 25.15,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Llantwit Major (25.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Llanelli AFC, Market \u2192 Llantwit Major, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
"closing_odds": 1.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.47,
"entry_odds": 1.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 1.74,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.74,
"pick_team": "Llantwit Major",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Llantwit Major",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 22.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "llanelli-afc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Llanelli AFC",
"away_team_id": 355,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/355.webp",
"away_team_name": "Llanelli AFC",
"away_team_public_id": "3OPxwIByy84UmM",
"away_team_slug": "llanelli-afc",
"country_code": "GB-WLS",
"country_display_name": "Wales",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-wls.svg",
"country_id": 167,
"country_name": "Wales",
"fixture_id": 1580756,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Wales",
"home_team_display_name": "Llantwit Major",
"home_team_id": 2196,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2196.webp",
"home_team_name": "Llantwit Major",
"home_team_public_id": "45mBVvHO8BRzNR",
"home_team_slug": "llantwit-major",
"ht.home_team_slug": "llantwit-major",
"league_country": "Wales",
"league_country_display": "Wales",
"league_display_name": "Campeonato FAW",
"league_id": 111,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/111.webp",
"league_name": "Campeonato FAW",
"league_public_id": "1vRup4lQvPxvya",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 13:30:00",
"public_id": "3t1VbjdwLoQLhk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2515,
"draw": 0.2281,
"home": 0.5204
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.2877
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2704,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0238,
"implied_prob": 0.2281,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2515,
"draw": 0.2281,
"home": 0.5204
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2459
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3985,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0892,
"ev": -0.2497,
"implied_prob": 0.5204,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2515,
"draw": 0.2281,
"home": 0.5204
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.4312
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.1318,
"ev": 0.4744,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.042,
"ev": 0.1668,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.2782,
"ev": -0.484,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1558,
"alpha_yes": 0.2142,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0781,
"edge_yes": -0.0781,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1475,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0573,
"ev_yes": -0.1614,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1194,
"implied_no": 0.3809,
"implied_yes": 0.6191,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0573,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3832
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6115
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3832,
"p_final_yes": 0.6115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.201,
"alpha_under": 0.1462,
"best_over_odd": 1.58,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.32,
"edge_over": -0.127,
"edge_under": 0.127,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2384,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1268,
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0465,
"implied_over": 0.609,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6073,
"implied_under": 0.391,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3927,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.201,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.6073,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5821
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1462,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.3927,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.411
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5821,
"p_final_under": 0.411,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4744,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4744,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Llanelli AFC at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Llanelli AFC as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Llanelli AFC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Llanelli AFC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1580756 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +34.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Llantwit Major, but the model still strongly favours Llanelli AFC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0357,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2777777777777778,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4746,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0357,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Llanelli AFC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"edge": 0.014,
"market_prob": 0.3692,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0573,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3832
},
"p_final": 0.3832,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0573,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6115
}
},
"edge": 0.0781,
"ev": 0.1475,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3809,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1462,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.3927,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.201,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.6073,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5821
},
"p_final": 0.411,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0465,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1462,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.3927,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.411
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.127,
"ev": 0.3468,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1580756,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3468,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4096,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.3809,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.3809,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Llanelli AFC",
"home": "Llantwit Major"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.12575,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0357,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2777777777777778,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4746,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1580756,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:32:16.134212+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Llantwit Major & Llanelli AFC!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Campeonato FAW — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Treowen Stars | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Newport City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Caerphilly Athletic | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Llanelli AFC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 8 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 20 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 19 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 9 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 10 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Newport City | 7 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 8 |
| 12 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 13 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Caerphilly Athletic | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 |
| 16 | Llanelli AFC | 10 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 2 |
