Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (8 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Hoogstraten Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.14
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Hoogstraten 4–4 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a64640eb5dc47e6c0adedf0963bf5100f4f33264e4ebb3569743414484f763b5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Hoogstraten",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0435,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4281,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.14
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.14,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Hoogstraten Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.34,
"market_odds": 2.14,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -8.3,
"value_pct": -17.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Hoogstraten or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Hoogstraten or Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Hoogstraten or Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Hoogstraten"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 4.2,
"implied_prob": 28.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.52
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.16,
"draw": 26.03,
"home": 42.81
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:02:56",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 17:33:33",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Hoogstraten",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.81,
"gap_pp": -4.35,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.03,
"gap_pp": 3.56,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.16,
"gap_pp": 0.79,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.68,
"gap_pp": -13.48,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.32,
"gap_pp": 13.48,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.14,
"early": 2.14,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.81,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.52,
"early": 3.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.03,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.94,
"early": 2.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.16,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.68,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.43,
"early": 2.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.32,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3848,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0264,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5888
},
"p_final": 0.404,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2173,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0506,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.404
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.3,
"text": "-24.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2587,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 25.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2587,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10382.83,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0137,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3684,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0697,
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3821
},
"p_final": 0.3821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1104,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0697,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6316,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6128
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.181,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.1,
"text": "+18.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2112,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.1,
"text": "-21.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.181,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10162.9,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.123,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0483,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.8,
"text": "-4.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.177,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hoogstraten",
"sort_key": 1787.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"alert_team": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.32,
"hero_label": "Hoogstraten",
"market_prob_pct": 42.8,
"market_team": "Hoogstraten",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Hoogstraten",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hoogstraten at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hoogstraten as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hoogstraten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.177,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.32,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.32,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"steam_team": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hoogstraten at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hoogstraten as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hoogstraten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.177,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hoogstraten 1.37 xG vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 1.23 \u2192 Hoogstraten 38.5%",
"Market: Hoogstraten ~42.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar \u2193 -17.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hoogstraten, but sharp money moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.32,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Hoogstraten",
"market_prob": 42.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.78,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"market_prob": 31.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.29,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.29,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.92,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.92,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hoogstraten",
"market_prob_pct": 42.81,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.32,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hoogstraten",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hoogstraten 1.37 xG vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 1.23 \u2192 Hoogstraten 38.5%",
"Market: Hoogstraten ~42.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar \u2193 -17.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hoogstraten, but sharp money moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.32,
"hero_label": "Hoogstraten",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar odds shortened \u2193 -17.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, with odds shortening by 17.6%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar \u2014 odds shortened by 17.6%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, with odds shortening by 17.6%.",
"Buying interest on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar \u2014 odds shortened by 17.6%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Lyra-Lierse Berlaar has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.6%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.32,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Hoogstraten",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.32,
"edge_pp": -4.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hoogstraten",
"market_prob_pct": 42.81,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.54,
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.03,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.78,
"edge_pp": 0.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"market_prob_pct": 31.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar \u2014 odds shortened by 17.6%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hoogstraten (42.8%).",
"However, Lyra-Lierse Berlaar has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.6%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hoogstraten, Market \u2192 Hoogstraten, Recent sharp money \u2192 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
"closing_odds": 2.14,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
"entry_odds": 2.14,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 47m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/8 books synchronized on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (17.6% steam, score 89) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.10",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.62 \u2192 2.63 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 47m",
"pick_team": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.62"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.63"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
2.94,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,13.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar \u2193 -17.6% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar \u2193 -17.6% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_team_name": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lyra-lierse-berlaar",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"away_team_id": 5864,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5864.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"away_team_public_id": "0X9RIZj9rSKgZY",
"away_team_slug": "lyra-lierse-berlaar",
"country_code": "BE",
"country_display_name": "Belgium",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/be.svg",
"country_id": 16,
"country_name": "Belgium",
"fixture_id": 1579938,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Belgium",
"home_team_display_name": "Hoogstraten",
"home_team_id": 5825,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5825.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hoogstraten",
"home_team_public_id": "1RhkXmhlNTOzmM",
"home_team_slug": "hoogstraten",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hoogstraten",
"league_country": "Belgium",
"league_country_display": "Belgium",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Amateur de B\u00e9lgica",
"league_id": 487,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/487.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Amateur de B\u00e9lgica",
"league_public_id": "2grtZWdqaouxyS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 18:00:00",
"public_id": "54jjJmgDi7eLFy",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4447,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0035,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.3116,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3116,
"draw": 0.2603,
"home": 0.4281
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3151
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.284,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.2603,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3116,
"draw": 0.2603,
"home": 0.4281
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2704
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4207,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.123,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3116,
"draw": 0.2603,
"home": 0.4281
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4098
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": 0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.0827,
"ev": -0.1769,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1563,
"alpha_yes": 0.215,
"best_no_odd": 2.59,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0892,
"edge_yes": -0.0892,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.181,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0697,
"ev_yes": -0.2112,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1298,
"implied_no": 0.3668,
"implied_yes": 0.6332,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0697,
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3821
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6316,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6128
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3821,
"p_final_yes": 0.6128,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1981,
"alpha_under": 0.144,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.43,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.1229,
"edge_under": 0.1229,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1345,
"ev_under": 0.2587,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0506,
"implied_over": 0.6049,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6152,
"implied_under": 0.3951,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3848,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0264,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5888
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.404
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5888,
"p_final_under": 0.404,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hoogstraten at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hoogstraten as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hoogstraten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, but the model still strongly favours Hoogstraten.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.177,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.123,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hoogstraten"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.3684,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0697,
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3821
},
"p_final": 0.3821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0697,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6316,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6128
}
},
"edge": 0.0892,
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.3668,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"market_prob": 0.3848,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0264,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5888
},
"p_final": 0.404,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0506,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.404
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1229,
"ev": 0.2587,
"implied_prob": 0.3951,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1579938,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2587,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.3668,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.3668,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lyra-Lierse Berlaar",
"home": "Hoogstraten"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.093805,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2587,
"implied_prob": 0.3951,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.177,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1579938,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T18:02:57.943194+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Hoogstraten & Lyra-Lierse Berlaar!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Primera División Amateur de Bélgica — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Meux | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tubize | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Sporting Charleroi II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Standard Liège II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Flénu | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Habay-la-Neuve | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 3 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | RWDM | 4 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Standard Liège II | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 |
| 5 | Tubize | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Meux | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Flénu | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Habay-la-Neuve | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| 11 | Olympic Charleroi | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Onhaye | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
