Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Slovácko B Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.14
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Hranice 1–1 Slovácko B
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d3bd3a70171543b36faa0ef04f2e02f088cf9a1f90ace994e85ad033794fb667",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Slov\u00e1cko B",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Slov\u00e1cko B"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0523,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.14
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.14,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Slov\u00e1cko B Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.36,
"market_odds": 2.14,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": -9.7,
"value_pct": -20.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Hranice or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Hranice or Slov\u00e1cko B",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Slov\u00e1cko B",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Hranice or Slov\u00e1cko B",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Slov\u00e1cko B"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 0.6,
"implied_prob": 29.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 42.29,
"draw": 26.62,
"home": 31.1
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 16:00:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 15:31:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Hranice",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.1,
"gap_pp": 2.25,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.62,
"gap_pp": 2.98,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.29,
"gap_pp": -5.23,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.32,
"gap_pp": -7.12,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.68,
"gap_pp": 7.12,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.91,
"early": 2.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.1,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.62,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.14,
"early": 2.14,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.29,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.32,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.68,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5348
},
"p_final": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0567,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4639
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.1,
"text": "-18.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0878,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10229.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1676,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0077,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.409,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1676,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4167
},
"p_final": 0.4167,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0192,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.591,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5804
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1415,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.1,
"text": "-14.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.066,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.6,
"text": "-6.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"sort_key": 1783.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"alert_team": "Hranice",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.23,
"hero_label": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"market_prob_pct": 42.3,
"market_team": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Slov\u00e1cko B)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Slov\u00e1cko B)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Slov\u00e1cko B at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Slov\u00e1cko B as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Slov\u00e1cko B).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1415,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.23,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.23,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"steam_team": "Hranice",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Slov\u00e1cko B).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Slov\u00e1cko B)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Slov\u00e1cko B)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Slov\u00e1cko B at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Slov\u00e1cko B as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Slov\u00e1cko B).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1415,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hranice 1.26 xG vs Slov\u00e1cko B 1.34 \u2192 Slov\u00e1cko B 37.1%",
"Market: Slov\u00e1cko B ~42.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Hranice odds \u2191 +9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Slov\u00e1cko B with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.21,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Hranice",
"market_prob": 31.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.01,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.23,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"market_prob": 42.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.87,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.39,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.39,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"market_prob_pct": 42.29,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Hranice"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Slov\u00e1cko B\u0027s win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.23,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Slov\u00e1cko B \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hranice 1.26 xG vs Slov\u00e1cko B 1.34 \u2192 Slov\u00e1cko B 37.1%",
"Market: Slov\u00e1cko B ~42.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Hranice odds \u2191 +9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Slov\u00e1cko B with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.23,
"hero_label": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Hranice odds lengthened \u2191 +9.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Hranice has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Slov\u00e1cko B. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Hranice \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Slov\u00e1cko B. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Hranice has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Hranice \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Slov\u00e1cko B above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Hranice has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.23,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Slov\u00e1cko B higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.21,
"edge_pp": 2.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hranice",
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.01,
"edge_pp": 3.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.62,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.23,
"edge_pp": -5.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"market_prob_pct": 42.29,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Hranice \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Slov\u00e1cko B (42.3%).",
"Hranice odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.8%, 4/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Slov\u00e1cko B \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
"closing_odds": 2.14,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
"entry_odds": 2.14,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 65h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Hranice (9.8%, 4/7) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.91",
"2.73",
"2.55"
],
"display": "2.93 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 65h 2m",
"pick_team": "Hranice",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.93"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
2.91,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hranice",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Hranice",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Hranice",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_team_name": "Hranice",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "slovacko-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"away_team_id": 8623,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8623.webp",
"away_team_name": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"away_team_public_id": "4Brrkii609OSJE",
"away_team_slug": "slovacko-ii",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1577933,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Hranice",
"home_team_id": 7300,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7300.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hranice",
"home_team_public_id": "3KezoGXy5SvZXi",
"home_team_slug": "hranice",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hranice",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Liga - MSFL de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_id": 349,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/349.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Liga - MSFL de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_public_id": "4IR1qFbOCxa8Dj",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 16:00:00",
"public_id": "2943y61VvMNDAo",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Stadion SK Hranice"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4147,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1415,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4229,
"draw": 0.2662,
"home": 0.311
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2866,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.066,
"implied_prob": 0.2662,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4229,
"draw": 0.2662,
"home": 0.311
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2747
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4348,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4229,
"draw": 0.2662,
"home": 0.311
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3208
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.0968,
"ev": -0.2071,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": 0.0064,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.91,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0296,
"implied_prob": 0.3436,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1676,
"alpha_yes": 0.2304,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0439,
"edge_yes": -0.0439,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0666,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1003,
"implied_no": 0.4111,
"implied_yes": 0.5889,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1676,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4167
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.591,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5804
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4167,
"p_final_yes": 0.5804,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2223,
"alpha_under": 0.2021,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.04,
"edge_over": -0.0687,
"edge_under": 0.0687,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1069,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0537,
"implied_over": 0.5507,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5499,
"implied_under": 0.4493,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4501,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5348
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4639
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5348,
"p_final_under": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Slov\u00e1cko B)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Slov\u00e1cko B at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Slov\u00e1cko B as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Slov\u00e1cko B).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1415,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1415,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Slov\u00e1cko B"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1676,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0077,
"market_prob": 0.409,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1676,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4167
},
"p_final": 0.4167,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.591,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5804
}
},
"edge": 0.0439,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5348
},
"p_final": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4639
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0687,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4493,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1577933,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Slov\u00e1cko B",
"home": "Hranice"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4493,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1415,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1577933,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T16:00:49.201624+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Hranice & Slovácko B!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Tercera Liga - MSFL de República Checa — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Frýdek-Místek | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Uničov | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Hranice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Vítkovice | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Unie Hlubina | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Slovácko B | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Uherský Brod | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Vrchovina | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Hodonín | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Karviná II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | Blansko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Vsetín | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 17 | Havířov | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 | Polanka nad Odrou | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unie Hlubina | 10 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 15 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 10 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 | Líšeň II | 10 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 24 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc II | 10 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Uničov | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Slovácko B | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 | Uherský Brod | 10 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Frýdek-Místek | 9 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 18 |
| 9 | Karviná II | 10 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Blansko | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Hranice | 10 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 10 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Vítkovice | 10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 14 | Vrchovina | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Hodonín | 10 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Vsetín | 10 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 | Polanka nad Odrou | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Havířov | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 4 |
