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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Arminia Bielefeld Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.44
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 FC St. Pauli
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4908abe3e1b1418883f6ceeba4fb18394c58f35b28dcd0c195b828bc4793c887",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.06,
"away_win_prob": 0.1777,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.419,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.581,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.235,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.26,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.7,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.04,
"home_win_prob": 0.5873,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.599,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.401
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Arminia Bielefeld or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Arminia Bielefeld",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"away_xg": 1.06,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"confidence": 58.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Arminia Bielefeld",
"edge": 0.1912,
"edge_gap": 0.3533,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3967,
"model_prob": 0.5879,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 17.8,
"draw": 23.5,
"home": 58.8
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.44
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.44,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Arminia Bielefeld Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.52,
"market_odds": 2.44,
"model_odds": 1.7,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 17.8,
"value_pct": 43.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 65.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 87.0,
"no_prob": 41.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 58.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 58.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.06,
"home_expected": 2.04,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Arminia Bielefeld or Draw",
"prob": 82.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Arminia Bielefeld or FC St. Pauli",
"prob": 76.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FC St. Pauli",
"prob": 41.3
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Arminia Bielefeld or Draw",
"pick_prob": 82.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 17.8,
"draw_pct": 23.5,
"home_pct": 58.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.1,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 59.9,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.1,
"under_prob": 40.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 43.5,
"implied_prob": 41.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Arminia Bielefeld Win",
"model_prob": 58.8,
"odds": 2.44
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "FC St. Pauli",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.45,
"draw": 25.88,
"home": 39.67
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-04 16:29:19",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-04 16:01:42",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.67,
"gap_pp": 19.12,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 58.79
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.88,
"gap_pp": -2.42,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.45,
"gap_pp": -16.7,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 17.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.5,
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 59.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.5,
"gap_pp": -0.4,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 40.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.67,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.74,
"early": 3.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.88,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.81,
"early": 2.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.45,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.38,
"early": 2.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.1,
"ev": -0.01,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.099,
"model_prob_pct": 9.9,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.04,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 2.45,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Arminia Bielefeld",
"edge": 18.0,
"ev": 44.1,
"probability": 58.8
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1177,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.8,
"text": "+11.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3967,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1177,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.8,
"text": "+11.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5879,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4345,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"sort_key": 10255.93,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 59.9,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 40.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 41.9,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 58.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -1.8%",
"alert_team": "FC St. Pauli",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 19.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 19.06,
"hero_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"market_team": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"model_prob_pct": 58.7,
"model_team": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1177,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4344,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arminia Bielefeld at 58.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arminia Bielefeld as the value side (58.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Arminia Bielefeld \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +43% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576161 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +43% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1177,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3967,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5879,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4345,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.98"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.98
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.06,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.06,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.04,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.04,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.04 \u00b7 Away xG 1.06 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +51%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -1.8%",
"steam_team": "FC St. Pauli",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1177,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4344,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arminia Bielefeld at 58.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arminia Bielefeld as the value side (58.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Arminia Bielefeld \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +43% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576161 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +43% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1177,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3967,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5879,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4345,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.98"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.98
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arminia Bielefeld 2.04 xG vs FC St. Pauli 1.06 \u2192 Arminia Bielefeld 58.7%",
"Market: Arminia Bielefeld ~39.7% implied",
"Market Steam: FC St. Pauli \u2193 -1.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Arminia Bielefeld, but sharp money moved toward FC St. Pauli.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 19.06,
"fair_prob": 58.73,
"label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob": 39.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.38,
"fair_prob": 23.5,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.68,
"fair_prob": 17.77,
"label": "FC St. Pauli",
"market_prob": 34.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 59.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 40.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 58.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 19.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.73,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob_pct": 39.67,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "FC St. Pauli"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Arminia Bielefeld\u0027s win probability at 58.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 39.7%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 19.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.0,
"model_prob_pct": 58.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.0,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arminia Bielefeld 2.04 xG vs FC St. Pauli 1.06 \u2192 Arminia Bielefeld 58.7%",
"Market: Arminia Bielefeld ~39.7% implied",
"Market Steam: FC St. Pauli \u2193 -1.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Arminia Bielefeld, but sharp money moved toward FC St. Pauli.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 19.06,
"hero_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "FC St. Pauli odds shortened \u2193 -1.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on FC St. Pauli, with odds shortening by 1.8%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arminia Bielefeld.",
"note": "Buying interest on FC St. Pauli \u2014 odds shortened by 1.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arminia Bielefeld.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on FC St. Pauli, with odds shortening by 1.8%.",
"Buying interest on FC St. Pauli \u2014 odds shortened by 1.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Arminia Bielefeld more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, FC St. Pauli has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 1.8%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on FC St. Pauli."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 35.2 pp (at 58.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 35.2,
"max_prob_pct": 58.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"largest_gap_pp": 19.1,
"lead": "The model rates Arminia Bielefeld considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 19.06,
"edge_pp": 19.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.73,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob_pct": 39.67,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.38,
"edge_pp": -2.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -16.68,
"edge_pp": -16.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC St. Pauli",
"market_prob_pct": 34.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on FC St. Pauli \u2014 odds shortened by 1.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Arminia Bielefeld (39.7%).",
"FC St. Pauli has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -1.8%, 11/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Arminia Bielefeld, Market \u2192 Arminia Bielefeld, Recent sharp money \u2192 FC St. Pauli.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.98,
"closing_odds": 2.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.98,
"entry_odds": 2.44,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.2
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 1.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Stable line on FC St. Pauli \u2014 tracking only (1.8% vs. open).",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.81",
"2.78",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.63 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "FC St. Pauli",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.63"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
2.81,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.81"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "FC St. Pauli",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "neutral",
"signal_icon": "\u2014",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.8%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved toward FC St. Pauli while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "FC St. Pauli",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "tracking",
"signal_label": "Tracking",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.8%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "FC St. Pauli",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_team_name": "FC St. Pauli",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC St. Pauli",
"away_team_id": 186,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/186.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC St. Pauli",
"away_team_public_id": "4X82QATnZKal0V",
"away_team_slug": "fc-st-pauli",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1576161,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"home_team_id": 188,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/188.webp",
"home_team_name": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"home_team_public_id": "4UCKb5yuGGCT4H",
"home_team_slug": "arminia-bielefeld",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0Lxi3Z4aPBtEjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-04 16:30:00",
"public_id": "16UH7KuBaDJ0br",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bielefeld",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3373,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0563,
"ev": -0.1903,
"implied_prob": 0.3445,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3445,
"draw": 0.2588,
"home": 0.3967
},
"model_prob": 0.1775,
"p_final": 0.2882
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2891,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.007,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.2588,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3445,
"draw": 0.2588,
"home": 0.3967
},
"model_prob": 0.2346,
"p_final": 0.2518
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.321,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0614,
"ev": 0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.3967,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3445,
"draw": 0.2588,
"home": 0.3967
},
"model_prob": 0.5879,
"p_final": 0.4581
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.1784,
"ev": -0.5012,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.1775
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.74,
"edge": -0.0328,
"ev": -0.1226,
"implied_prob": 0.2674,
"model_prob": 0.2346
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.178,
"ev": 0.4344,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.5879
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.1,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1177,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4344,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1177,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1177,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4344,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arminia Bielefeld at 58.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arminia Bielefeld as the value side (58.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Arminia Bielefeld \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +43% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576161 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +43% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward FC St. Pauli, but the model still strongly favours Arminia Bielefeld.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1177,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3967,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5879,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4345,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.98"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.98
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.581,
"draw_prob": 0.2346,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5879,
"over_prob": 0.599,
"total_xg": 3.1,
"under_prob": 0.401,
"xg_diff": 0.98
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0614,
"ev": 0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.3967,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5879,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.581,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1576161,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1177,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1775,
"draw": 0.2346,
"home": 0.5879
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC St. Pauli",
"home": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.083035,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.3967,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5879,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1177,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3967,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5879,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4345,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576161,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-04T16:29:20.597822+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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2. Bundesliga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlín | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlín | 6 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 11 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 |
| 6 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 5 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | +2.3 | 7 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 11 |
| 4 | Hertha Berlín | 6 | 7.5 | 5.6 | +1.9 | 18 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 7.7 | 6.0 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 6 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 5.6 | 4.1 | +1.5 | 4 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 5.7 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +1.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 9.4 | 8.5 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 6.9 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 11 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 11 |
| 12 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 4.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 16 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 | 7 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 3.4 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | 10 |
| 18 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 8 |
