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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Santa Clara Santa Clara ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-1, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Santa Clara win · Casa Pia AC 0–1 Santa Clara
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.542,
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"btts_no_prob": 0.633,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 1.85,
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"over_25_prob": 0.331,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Santa Clara",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Santa Clara",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Santa Clara"
},
"away_xg": 1.4,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": 54.1,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Santa Clara",
"edge": 0.0669,
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"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 54.1,
"draw": 30.6,
"home": 15.3
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"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Santa Clara"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.06
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.06
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.0
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 1.98
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 1.98
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 1.95
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.94
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"label": "Away",
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},
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"away_played": 7,
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"pick": "No",
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{
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{
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{
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{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Casa Pia AC or Draw",
"prob": 45.8
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Casa Pia AC or Santa Clara",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Santa Clara",
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"pick_key": "X2",
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"draw_pct": 30.6,
"home_pct": 15.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Santa Clara"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.03,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "high",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 66.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Away",
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"odds": 2.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"best_odds": 6.5,
"edge": 3.0,
"ev": 19.5,
"label": "0-1",
"probability": 18.4
},
"lean_card": {
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"ev": 0.196,
"has_edge": true,
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"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.184,
"model_prob_pct": 18.4,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 18.4
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"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 12.9
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{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.63,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0523,
"edge_pp": 5.2,
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"no": {
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"edge": 0.0523,
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"model_prob": 0.633,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2027,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.3,
"text": "+20.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.266,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.6,
"text": "-26.6%"
},
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"id": "btts",
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{
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"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2387,
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"raw_pct": -23.9,
"text": "-23.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1239,
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"text": "+12.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0108,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.1,
"text": "+1.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0108,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.1,
"text": "+1.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5412,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Santa Clara",
"sort_key": 5208.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 835.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 18.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"alert_team": "Casa Pia AC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Santa Clara",
"model_prob_pct": 54.2,
"model_team": "Santa Clara",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2027,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Santa Clara at 54.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Santa Clara as the value side (54.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Santa Clara",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5412,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.77"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.77
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "10/10",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 66,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.63,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.63 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"steam_team": "Casa Pia AC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2027,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Santa Clara at 54.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Santa Clara as the value side (54.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Santa Clara",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5412,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.77"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.77
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Casa Pia AC 0.63 xG vs Santa Clara 1.40 \u2192 Santa Clara 54.2%",
"Market Steam: Casa Pia AC \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Santa Clara, but sharp money moved toward Casa Pia AC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 15.25,
"label": "Casa Pia AC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.55,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "Santa Clara",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.67,
"fair_prob": 33.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.67,
"fair_prob": 66.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.1,
"fair_prob": 36.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.1,
"fair_prob": 63.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Santa Clara",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.8,
"model_prob_pct": 54.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Casa Pia AC 0.63 xG vs Santa Clara 1.40 \u2192 Santa Clara 54.2%",
"Market Steam: Casa Pia AC \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Santa Clara, but sharp money moved toward Casa Pia AC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Casa Pia AC odds shortened \u2193 -13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 23.7 pp (at 54.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 23.7,
"max_prob_pct": 54.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Casa Pia AC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.55,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santa Clara",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Santa Clara (54.2%).",
"However, Casa Pia AC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.3%, 10/10).",
"The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "No complete pre-match closing snapshot",
"closing_status": "unavailable",
"closing_status_label": "Unavailable",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "Requires closing line after full time",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "closing_unavailable",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Closing unavailable",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.64,
"entry_odds": 3.9,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "HT",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 HT",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "unavailable"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Casa Pia AC (13.3%, 10/10) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.50",
"4.20",
"3.90"
],
"display": "4.60 \u2192 3.65 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 40m",
"pick_team": "Casa Pia AC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Casa Pia AC \u2193 -13.3% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Casa Pia AC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Casa Pia AC \u2193 -13.3% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Casa Pia AC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Casa Pia AC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Casa Pia AC",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "Casa Pia AC",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "santa-clara",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Santa Clara",
"away_team_id": 227,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/227.webp",
"away_team_name": "Santa Clara",
"away_team_public_id": "25JpAjVPB14j9T",
"away_team_slug": "santa-clara",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1575513,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Casa Pia AC",
"home_team_id": 4716,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4716.webp",
"home_team_name": "Casa Pia AC",
"home_team_public_id": "0cdZcMew0WGjXb",
"home_team_slug": "casa-pia",
"ht.home_team_slug": "casa-pia",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_id": 94,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/94.webp",
"league_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_public_id": "3MSXUknHDsucZ6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 19:30:00",
"public_id": "1QMhjTq0vU8f5f",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": "Rio Mayor",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 7.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5399,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.036,
"ev": 0.0108,
"implied_prob": 0.4745,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4745,
"draw": 0.2847,
"home": 0.2409
},
"model_prob": 0.5412,
"p_final": 0.5105
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2903,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.2847,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4745,
"draw": 0.2847,
"home": 0.2409
},
"model_prob": 0.3062,
"p_final": 0.2909
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2603,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.023,
"ev": -0.1502,
"implied_prob": 0.2409,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4745,
"draw": 0.2847,
"home": 0.2409
},
"model_prob": 0.1526,
"p_final": 0.2179
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0558,
"ev": 0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.5412
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": 0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.3062
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.15,
"edge": -0.0883,
"ev": -0.3666,
"implied_prob": 0.241,
"model_prob": 0.1526
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4839,
"alpha_yes": 0.4399,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.111,
"edge_yes": -0.111,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2027,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0188,
"ev_yes": -0.266,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1663,
"implied_no": 0.522,
"implied_yes": 0.478,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4839,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0523,
"ev": 0.0188,
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"model_prob": 0.633,
"p_final": 0.5772
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4399,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0476,
"ev": -0.1663,
"implied_prob": 0.4751,
"model_prob": 0.367,
"p_final": 0.4276
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5772,
"p_final_yes": 0.4276,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3745,
"alpha_under": 0.5149,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": -0.0967,
"edge_under": 0.0967,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2387,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1335,
"ev_under": 0.1239,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0358,
"implied_over": 0.4277,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4315,
"implied_under": 0.5723,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5685,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3745,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0376,
"ev": -0.1335,
"implied_prob": 0.4315,
"model_prob": 0.331,
"p_final": 0.3939
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5149,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0518,
"ev": 0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.5685,
"model_prob": 0.669,
"p_final": 0.6202
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3939,
"p_final_under": 0.6202,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.03,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2027,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2027,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2027,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Santa Clara at 54.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Santa Clara as the value side (54.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Santa Clara",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Casa Pia AC, but the model still strongly favours Santa Clara.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5412,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.77"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.77
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.367,
"draw_prob": 0.3062,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5412,
"over_prob": 0.331,
"total_xg": 2.03,
"under_prob": 0.669,
"xg_diff": 0.77
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.036,
"ev": 0.0108,
"implied_prob": 0.4745,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5412,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Santa Clara"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4839,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0523,
"market_prob": 0.5249,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.633,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4839,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0523,
"ev": 0.0188,
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"model_prob": 0.633,
"p_final": 0.5772
},
"p_final": 0.5772,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0188,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4399,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0476,
"ev": -0.1663,
"implied_prob": 0.4751,
"model_prob": 0.367,
"p_final": 0.4276
}
},
"edge": 0.111,
"ev": 0.2027,
"implied_prob": 0.522,
"model_prob": 0.633,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5149,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0518,
"market_prob": 0.5685,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.669,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3745,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0376,
"ev": -0.1335,
"implied_prob": 0.4315,
"model_prob": 0.331,
"p_final": 0.3939
},
"p_final": 0.6202,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0358,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5149,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0518,
"ev": 0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.5685,
"model_prob": 0.669,
"p_final": 0.6202
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0967,
"ev": 0.1239,
"implied_prob": 0.5723,
"model_prob": 0.669,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1575513,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2027,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5412,
"draw": 0.3062,
"home": 0.1526
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1239,
"implied_prob": 0.5723,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.669,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1239,
"implied_prob": 0.5723,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.669,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Santa Clara",
"home": "Casa Pia AC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.128309,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2027,
"implied_prob": 0.522,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.633,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5412,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1575513,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:24:31.039684+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primeira Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Académico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória de Guimarães | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia AC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 7 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 7 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Estrela | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Arouca | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Famalicão | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Académico Viseu | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Alverca | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Marítimo | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 7 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | SC Braga | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 13 | Nacional | 7 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Vitória de Guimarães | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril | 7 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Casa Pia AC | 7 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 7 | 11.0 | 2.1 | +8.9 | 16 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 7 | 11.2 | 3.9 | +7.3 | 21 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | +4.1 | 8 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 7.9 | 4.2 | +3.7 | 15 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 7 | 6.8 | 4.3 | +2.5 | 15 |
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | +1.9 | 11 |
| 7 | Vitória de Guimarães | 7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | +1.6 | 5 |
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 5.9 | 6.0 | -0.1 | 10 |
| 9 | Famalicão | 7 | 3.3 | 4.2 | -0.9 | 7 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 3.9 | 5.5 | -1.6 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 5.1 | 6.9 | -1.8 | 8 |
| 12 | Estoril | 7 | 4.8 | 7.0 | -2.2 | 2 |
| 13 | Arouca | 7 | 5.6 | 7.9 | -2.3 | 11 |
| 14 | Moreirense | 7 | 2.1 | 5.4 | -3.3 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 5.8 | 9.2 | -3.4 | 4 |
| 16 | Casa Pia AC | 7 | 2.8 | 7.0 | -4.2 | 4 |
| 17 | Académico Viseu | 7 | 5.7 | 10.4 | -4.7 | 11 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 7 | 4.1 | 9.6 | -5.5 | 4 |
