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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sporting CP Sporting CP ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Sporting CP win · SC Braga 1–3 Sporting CP
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d5ccfe24feeb42f648be2586d3cb1eaac35f1fa3a1b7803619df7f163f3c8847",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.13,
"away_win_prob": 0.4259,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.623,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.377,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3452,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.35,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.9,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.37,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.76,
"home_win_prob": 0.2289,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.294,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.706
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Sporting CP and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sporting CP"
},
"away_xg": 1.13,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sporting CP",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0455,
"edge_gap": 0.0808,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3803,
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 42.6,
"draw": 34.5,
"home": 22.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "stake com",
"odd": 2.46
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.46,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "stake com",
"display_market": "Sporting CP Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.63,
"market_odds": 2.46,
"model_odds": 2.35,
"overround": 6.9,
"prob_edge": 1.9,
"value_pct": 4.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 67.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 53.2,
"no_prob": 62.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 62.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 37.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.13,
"home_expected": 0.76,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 17.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 15.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "SC Braga or Draw",
"prob": 57.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "SC Braga or Sporting CP",
"prob": 65.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sporting CP",
"prob": 77.1
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Sporting CP",
"pick_prob": 77.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 42.6,
"draw_pct": 34.5,
"home_pct": 22.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Sporting CP"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 1.89,
"away_avg_scored": 2.4,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 29.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 70.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.89,
"under_prob": 70.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "stake com",
"edge": 8.7,
"implied_prob": 31.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 34.5,
"odds": 3.15
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sporting CP",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 38.03,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 32.26
},
"closing_bookmaker": "stake com",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-09 19:14:46",
"closing_source": "oddsportal",
"early_bookmaker": "stake com",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-09 18:56:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "SC Braga",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.26,
"gap_pp": -9.36,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 22.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.7,
"gap_pp": 4.81,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 34.51
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.03,
"gap_pp": 4.55,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 42.59
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 2.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.26,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.15,
"early": 3.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.7,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.46,
"early": 2.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.03,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betfair",
"best_odds": 9.5,
"edge": 4.6,
"ev": 43.5,
"label": "0-0",
"probability": 15.1
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 4.6,
"ev": 0.368,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.171,
"model_prob_pct": 17.1,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 17.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 17.1
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 15.1
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.76,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4629,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": 0.073,
"edge_pp": 7.3,
"market_prob": 0.5483,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.706,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4209,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0664,
"ev": -0.1908,
"implied_prob": 0.4517,
"model_prob": 0.294,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"p_final": 0.6213,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2214,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0749,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4629,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.073,
"ev": 0.0749,
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"p_final": 0.6213
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3679,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -36.8,
"text": "-36.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2567,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 25.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2567,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 29.4,
"sort_key": 10381.03,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 70.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4133,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0586,
"edge_pp": 5.9,
"market_prob": 0.4812,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4133,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0586,
"ev": 0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4812,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5398
},
"p_final": 0.5398,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2024,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0418,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4547,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.1867,
"implied_prob": 0.5188,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4543
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.246,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.6,
"text": "+24.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3176,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.8,
"text": "-31.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.246,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 62.3,
"sort_key": 10221.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 37.7
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0174,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0174,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0477,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sporting CP",
"sort_key": 1795.65,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 831.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 17.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"alert_team": "Sporting CP",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.37,
"hero_label": "SC Braga",
"market_prob_pct": 38.0,
"market_team": "Sporting CP",
"model_prob_pct": 42.6,
"model_team": "Sporting CP",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2567,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2567,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP at 42.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sporting CP as the value side (42.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sporting CP",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0174,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0477,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.37
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "10/10",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.37,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.37,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.13,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.76,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.13,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.76 \u00b7 Away xG 1.13 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"steam_team": "Sporting CP",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2567,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2567,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP at 42.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sporting CP as the value side (42.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sporting CP",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0174,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0477,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.37
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SC Braga 0.76 xG vs Sporting CP 1.13 \u2192 Sporting CP 42.6%",
"Market: Sporting CP ~38.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Sporting CP odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sporting CP, but the market has moved away from Sporting CP.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.37,
"fair_prob": 22.89,
"label": "SC Braga",
"market_prob": 32.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.82,
"fair_prob": 34.52,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.56,
"fair_prob": 42.59,
"label": "Sporting CP",
"market_prob": 38.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.05,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.05,
"fair_prob": 70.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.27,
"fair_prob": 37.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.27,
"fair_prob": 62.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.89,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "SC Braga",
"market_prob_pct": 32.26,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sporting CP"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates SC Braga\u0027s win probability at 32.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 22.9%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.37,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sporting CP",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.6,
"model_prob_pct": 42.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SC Braga 0.76 xG vs Sporting CP 1.13 \u2192 Sporting CP 42.6%",
"Market: Sporting CP ~38.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Sporting CP odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sporting CP, but the market has moved away from Sporting CP.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.37,
"hero_label": "SC Braga",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sporting CP odds lengthened \u2191 +10.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sporting CP has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on SC Braga. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Sporting CP \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on SC Braga. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Sporting CP has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sporting CP \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices SC Braga above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Sporting CP has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/10) supports the current market view on Sporting CP."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.37,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.1 pp (at 42.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "SC Braga",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices SC Braga higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.37,
"edge_pp": -9.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.89,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "SC Braga",
"market_prob_pct": 32.26,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.82,
"edge_pp": 4.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.52,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.7,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.56,
"edge_pp": 4.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sporting CP",
"market_prob_pct": 38.03,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sporting CP \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sporting CP (38.0%).",
"Sporting CP odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.7%, 10/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sporting CP, Market \u2192 Sporting CP, while Sporting CP odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.48,
"closing_odds": 2.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.48,
"entry_odds": 2.9,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Sporting CP (10.7%, 10/10) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.46",
"2.30",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.47 \u2192 2.02 \u2192 2.38",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 50m",
"pick_team": "Sporting CP",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.02"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.46,
2.38
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.46"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 10/10 sportsbooks on Sporting CP",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Sporting CP",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Market moved away from Sporting CP while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sporting CP",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Sporting CP",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Sporting CP",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sporting-cp",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Sporting CP",
"away_team_id": 228,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/228.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sporting CP",
"away_team_public_id": "1lbSdVuEZJazv0",
"away_team_slug": "sporting-cp",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1575512,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "SC Braga",
"home_team_id": 217,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/217.webp",
"home_team_name": "SC Braga",
"home_team_public_id": "2U3Thd2LMuUB0m",
"home_team_slug": "sc-braga",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sc-braga",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_id": 94,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/94.webp",
"league_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_public_id": "3MSXUknHDsucZ6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-09 19:15:00",
"public_id": "0Iqmyit2xr247E",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Braga",
"venue_name": "Est\u00e1dio Municipal de Braga"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4193,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.297,
"home": 0.3226
},
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"p_final": 0.3994
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2784,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0222,
"implied_prob": 0.297,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.297,
"home": 0.3226
},
"model_prob": 0.3451,
"p_final": 0.3104
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3868,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0362,
"ev": -0.1694,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.297,
"home": 0.3226
},
"model_prob": 0.229,
"p_final": 0.2864
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0477,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.4259
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": 0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.3451
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": -0.1158,
"ev": -0.3358,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.229
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4133,
"alpha_yes": 0.4547,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.81,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1427,
"edge_yes": -0.1427,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.246,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0418,
"ev_yes": -0.3176,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1867,
"implied_no": 0.4803,
"implied_yes": 0.5197,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4133,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0586,
"ev": 0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4812,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5398
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4547,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.1867,
"implied_prob": 0.5188,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4543
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5398,
"p_final_yes": 0.4543,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4209,
"alpha_under": 0.4629,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.78,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.73,
"edge_over": -0.1605,
"edge_under": 0.1605,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3679,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1908,
"ev_under": 0.2567,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0749,
"implied_over": 0.4545,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4517,
"implied_under": 0.5455,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5483,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4209,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0664,
"ev": -0.1908,
"implied_prob": 0.4517,
"model_prob": 0.294,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4629,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.073,
"ev": 0.0749,
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"p_final": 0.6213
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3853,
"p_final_under": 0.6213,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.89,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2567,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2567,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2567,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2567,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2567,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP at 42.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sporting CP as the value side (42.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sporting CP",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sporting CP, but the model still strongly favours Sporting CP.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0174,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0477,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.37
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.377,
"draw_prob": 0.3451,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4259,
"over_prob": 0.294,
"total_xg": 1.89,
"under_prob": 0.706,
"xg_diff": 0.37
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sporting CP"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4133,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0586,
"market_prob": 0.4812,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4133,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0586,
"ev": 0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4812,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5398
},
"p_final": 0.5398,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0418,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4547,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.1867,
"implied_prob": 0.5188,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4543
}
},
"edge": 0.1427,
"ev": 0.246,
"implied_prob": 0.4803,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4629,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": 0.073,
"market_prob": 0.5483,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.706,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4209,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0664,
"ev": -0.1908,
"implied_prob": 0.4517,
"model_prob": 0.294,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"p_final": 0.6213,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0749,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4629,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.073,
"ev": 0.0749,
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"p_final": 0.6213
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1605,
"ev": 0.2567,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1575512,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2567,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4259,
"draw": 0.3451,
"home": 0.229
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.246,
"implied_prob": 0.4803,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.246,
"implied_prob": 0.4803,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sporting CP",
"home": "SC Braga"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.235599,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2567,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.706,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0174,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4259,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0477,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1575512,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-09T19:49:56.870153+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primeira Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Académico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória de Guimarães | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 8 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 8 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Estrela | 8 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | Alverca | 8 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 6 | Santa Clara | 8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 | Arouca | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 8 | Académico Viseu | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Famalicão | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Marítimo | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Nacional | 8 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
| 12 | SC Braga | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Moreirense | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 |
| 16 | Vitória de Guimarães | 8 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Estoril | 8 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 8 | 10.9 | 2.1 | +8.8 | 19 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 8 | 11.2 | 3.9 | +7.3 | 24 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | +4.1 | 11 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 7.9 | 4.2 | +3.7 | 18 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 8 | 6.8 | 4.3 | +2.5 | 18 |
| 6 | SC Braga | 7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | +1.9 | 11 |
| 7 | Vitória de Guimarães | 8 | 7.2 | 5.6 | +1.6 | 5 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 6.8 | 5.9 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 9 | Estrela | 8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | -0.2 | 10 |
| 10 | Marítimo | 8 | 5.1 | 6.9 | -1.8 | 8 |
| 11 | Arouca | 8 | 5.6 | 7.8 | -2.2 | 14 |
| 12 | Estoril | 8 | 4.8 | 7.0 | -2.2 | 2 |
| 13 | Moreirense | 8 | 2.1 | 5.4 | -3.3 | 8 |
| 14 | Nacional | 8 | 5.8 | 9.2 | -3.4 | 4 |
| 15 | Famalicão | 8 | 3.7 | 7.2 | -3.5 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 2.8 | 7.0 | -4.2 | 4 |
| 17 | Académico Viseu | 8 | 5.7 | 10.4 | -4.7 | 14 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 8 | 4.0 | 9.5 | -5.5 | 7 |
