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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Oberwart Oberwart ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.92
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Oberwart win · Oberwart 3–1 Parndorf
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Parndorf",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Parndorf"
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"away_xg": 1.3,
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1114,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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"affi_link": "",
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],
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"label": "Home",
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"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -16.9,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
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"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
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"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Oberwart or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Oberwart or Parndorf",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Parndorf",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Oberwart or Parndorf",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
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"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 10.4,
"implied_prob": 26.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.73
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.84,
"draw": 23.84,
"home": 46.32
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 17:29:53",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 17:03:13",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Oberwart",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"gap_pp": -11.14,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.84,
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.84,
"gap_pp": 5.34,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.26,
"gap_pp": -17.06,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.74,
"gap_pp": 17.06,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.92,
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"implied_early_pct": 46.32,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.73,
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"implied_early_pct": 23.84,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.98,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
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{
"closing": 1.4,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.26,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.63,
"early": 2.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.74,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.8,
"ev": 0.071,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0229,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.3466,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1839,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6534,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6219
},
"p_final": 0.3696,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3572,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0318,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3466,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3696
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3623,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3623,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10476.07,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"edge": 0.018,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3325,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.3325,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3505
},
"p_final": 0.3505,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2422,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0431,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1259,
"implied_prob": 0.6675,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6427
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.274,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 27.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.7,
"text": "-23.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.274,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10246.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart).",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2176,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.8,
"text": "-21.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0449,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3245,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Oberwart",
"sort_key": 1788.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.15,
"hero_label": "Oberwart",
"market_prob_pct": 46.3,
"market_team": "Oberwart",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Oberwart",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oberwart at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oberwart as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oberwart",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3245,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.15,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.15,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Oberwart",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oberwart at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oberwart as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oberwart",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3245,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Oberwart 1.30 xG vs Parndorf 1.30 \u2192 Oberwart 35.2%",
"Market: Oberwart ~46.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Oberwart +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Oberwart with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.15,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Oberwart",
"market_prob": 46.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.81,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Parndorf",
"market_prob": 29.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.49,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.49,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.92,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.92,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Oberwart",
"market_prob_pct": 46.32,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Oberwart"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Oberwart\u0027s win probability at 46.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.15,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Oberwart",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.1,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Oberwart \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Oberwart 1.30 xG vs Parndorf 1.30 \u2192 Oberwart 35.2%",
"Market: Oberwart ~46.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Oberwart +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Oberwart with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.15,
"hero_label": "Oberwart",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Oberwart than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Oberwart than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Oberwart than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Oberwart more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Oberwart (pricing gap 11.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.15,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Oberwart",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Oberwart higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.15,
"edge_pp": -11.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Oberwart",
"market_prob_pct": 46.32,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.81,
"edge_pp": 5.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.33,
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Parndorf",
"market_prob_pct": 29.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Oberwart than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Oberwart (46.3%).",
"Oberwart \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.08,
"closing_odds": 1.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.08,
"entry_odds": 1.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Oberwart",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Oberwart",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "parndorf",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Parndorf",
"away_team_id": 4955,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4955.webp",
"away_team_name": "Parndorf",
"away_team_public_id": "1rvXE2p2Q05W1r",
"away_team_slug": "parndorf",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1574102,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Oberwart",
"home_team_id": 11200,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11200.webp",
"home_team_name": "Oberwart",
"home_team_public_id": "0BxFBcfwsR0e5Q",
"home_team_slug": "oberwart",
"ht.home_team_slug": "oberwart",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga Este",
"league_id": 221,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/221.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Este",
"league_public_id": "2TcTIsSni3IQjn",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 17:30:00",
"public_id": "3zbQO9fMxdcKvE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.414,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.2984,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2984,
"draw": 0.2384,
"home": 0.4632
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3205
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2739,
"best_odd": 3.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0514,
"implied_prob": 0.2384,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2984,
"draw": 0.2384,
"home": 0.4632
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2543
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4997,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0557,
"ev": -0.2176,
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2984,
"draw": 0.2384,
"home": 0.4632
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.4075
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": 0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.73,
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.2681,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.1691,
"ev": -0.3246,
"implied_prob": 0.5208,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1469,
"alpha_yes": 0.202,
"best_no_odd": 2.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1192,
"edge_yes": -0.1192,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.274,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0431,
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1259,
"implied_no": 0.3358,
"implied_yes": 0.6642,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.3325,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3505
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1259,
"implied_prob": 0.6675,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6427
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3505,
"p_final_yes": 0.6427,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1839,
"alpha_under": 0.1337,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.63,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.39,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.62,
"edge_over": -0.1649,
"edge_under": 0.1649,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1356,
"ev_under": 0.3623,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0318,
"implied_over": 0.6469,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6534,
"implied_under": 0.3531,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3466,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1839,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6534,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6219
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3466,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3696
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6219,
"p_final_under": 0.3696,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3623,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3623,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oberwart at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oberwart as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oberwart",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Oberwart).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3245,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0557,
"ev": -0.2176,
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Oberwart"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"edge": 0.018,
"market_prob": 0.3325,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.3325,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3505
},
"p_final": 0.3505,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0431,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1259,
"implied_prob": 0.6675,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6427
}
},
"edge": 0.1192,
"ev": 0.274,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0229,
"market_prob": 0.3466,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1839,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6534,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6219
},
"p_final": 0.3696,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0318,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3466,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3696
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1649,
"ev": 0.3623,
"implied_prob": 0.3531,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1574102,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3623,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.274,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.274,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Parndorf",
"home": "Oberwart"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.13137,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3623,
"implied_prob": 0.3531,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3245,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1574102,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T17:29:54.964548+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Regionalliga Este — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | Wiener SC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Oberwart | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Traiskirchen | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Wiener Viktoria | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Scheiblingkirchen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Parndorf | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Fach-Donaufeld | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | SV Horn | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Krems / Rehberg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Leobendorf | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Mattersburg SV 2020 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Donau | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Favoritner AC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Gloggnitz | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Wienerberg | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 9 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 21 |
| 2 | Traiskirchen | 9 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 17 |
| 3 | Wiener SC | 9 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 19 |
| 4 | Oberwart | 9 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 18 |
| 5 | Wiener Viktoria | 9 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 | Parndorf | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Scheiblingkirchen | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Donau | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | SV Horn | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Krems / Rehberg | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Fach-Donaufeld | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Mattersburg SV 2020 | 9 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Gloggnitz | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Leobendorf | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Favoritner AC | 9 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Wienerberg | 9 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 0 |
