Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Scheiblingkirchen Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.25
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Scheiblingkirchen 1–1 Gloggnitz
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "36a59c52026a41cc4efa6f555002b7dd42cdd05251615280577b63e73e5b7b08",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.17,
"away_win_prob": 0.2925,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.42,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.42,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.43,
"home_win_prob": 0.414,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Scheiblingkirchen or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Scheiblingkirchen"
},
"away_xg": 1.17,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0387,
"edge_gap": 0.1201,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.3,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 41.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.4,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Scheiblingkirchen Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.67,
"market_odds": 2.4,
"model_odds": 2.42,
"overround": 11.1,
"prob_edge": -0.3,
"value_pct": -0.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 69.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 76.1,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.17,
"home_expected": 1.43,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Scheiblingkirchen or Draw",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Scheiblingkirchen or Gloggnitz",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Gloggnitz",
"prob": 58.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Scheiblingkirchen or Draw",
"pick_prob": 70.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.2,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 41.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Scheiblingkirchen"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 17.6,
"implied_prob": 25.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 4.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Gloggnitz",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.0,
"draw": 22.5,
"home": 37.5
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 14:29:52",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE10",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 14:21:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.5,
"gap_pp": 3.87,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.5,
"gap_pp": 6.86,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.36
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.0,
"gap_pp": -10.73,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.53,
"gap_pp": -16.33,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.47,
"gap_pp": 16.33,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.5,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.5,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.25,
"early": 2.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.44,
"early": 1.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.53,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.47,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.3,
"ev": 0.116,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.43,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1308,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0238,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.3358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1799,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0328,
"ev": -0.1413,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6314
},
"p_final": 0.3596,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3934,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0326,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1308,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3596
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.6,
"text": "-30.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3934,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 39.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3934,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10504.06,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1013,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0133,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3281,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1013,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0493,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3414
},
"p_final": 0.3414,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2783,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0493,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.6719,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6537
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2944,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2642,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.4,
"text": "-26.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2944,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10264.96,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0606,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0508,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"sort_key": 1787.3,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.75,
"hero_label": "Gloggnitz",
"market_prob_pct": 37.5,
"market_team": "Gloggnitz",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3934,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Scheiblingkirchen at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Scheiblingkirchen as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +39.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +39.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +39.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+39.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0606,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.75,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.75,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.17,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.43,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3934,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Scheiblingkirchen at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Scheiblingkirchen as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +39.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +39.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +39.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+39.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0606,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Scheiblingkirchen 1.43 xG vs Gloggnitz 1.17 \u2192 Scheiblingkirchen 41.4%",
"Market: Gloggnitz ~37.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Scheiblingkirchen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Scheiblingkirchen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"market_prob": 37.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.86,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Gloggnitz",
"market_prob": 40.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.59,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.59,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.09,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.09,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Gloggnitz",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Scheiblingkirchen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gloggnitz\u0027s win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.2%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.75,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.9,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Scheiblingkirchen 1.43 xG vs Gloggnitz 1.17 \u2192 Scheiblingkirchen 41.4%",
"Market: Gloggnitz ~37.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Scheiblingkirchen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Scheiblingkirchen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.75,
"hero_label": "Gloggnitz",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Scheiblingkirchen has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Gloggnitz than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Scheiblingkirchen.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Gloggnitz than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Scheiblingkirchen has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Scheiblingkirchen."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Gloggnitz more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Scheiblingkirchen has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Scheiblingkirchen."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.75,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Gloggnitz",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Gloggnitz higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.9,
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"market_prob_pct": 37.5,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.86,
"edge_pp": 6.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.75,
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gloggnitz",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Scheiblingkirchen.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gloggnitz (37.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Scheiblingkirchen, Market \u2192 Gloggnitz, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.44,
"closing_odds": 2.25,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.44,
"entry_odds": 2.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gloggnitz",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gloggnitz",
"away_team_id": 4941,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4941.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gloggnitz",
"away_team_public_id": "15690ZeNnceKSB",
"away_team_slug": "gloggnitz",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1574092,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"home_team_id": 4982,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4982.webp",
"home_team_name": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"home_team_public_id": "1eXfCIK1H42QJZ",
"home_team_slug": "scheiblingkirchen",
"ht.home_team_slug": "scheiblingkirchen",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga Este",
"league_id": 221,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/221.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Este",
"league_public_id": "2TcTIsSni3IQjn",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:30:00",
"public_id": "5FgHNwqlBVfhMg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3776,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0405,
"ev": -0.1911,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4,
"draw": 0.225,
"home": 0.375
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.3595
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1794,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.225,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4,
"draw": 0.225,
"home": 0.375
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2373
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4239,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4,
"draw": 0.225,
"home": 0.375
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.3914
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.1517,
"ev": -0.3414,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.2927
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0436,
"ev": 0.1743,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.0071,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.4137
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1013,
"alpha_yes": 0.1392,
"best_no_odd": 2.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1309,
"edge_yes": -0.1309,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2944,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0493,
"ev_yes": -0.2642,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.111,
"implied_no": 0.3281,
"implied_yes": 0.6719,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1013,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0493,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3414
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.6719,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6537
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3414,
"p_final_yes": 0.6537,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1799,
"alpha_under": 0.1308,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.69,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.69,
"edge_over": -0.1759,
"edge_under": 0.1759,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1413,
"ev_under": 0.3934,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0326,
"implied_over": 0.6579,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6642,
"implied_under": 0.3421,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3358,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1799,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0328,
"ev": -0.1413,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6314
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1308,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3596
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6314,
"p_final_under": 0.3596,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3934,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3934,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3934,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Scheiblingkirchen at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Scheiblingkirchen as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Scheiblingkirchen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +39.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +39.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +39.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+39.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Scheiblingkirchen, but the model still strongly favours Scheiblingkirchen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0606,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Scheiblingkirchen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1013,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0133,
"market_prob": 0.3281,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1013,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0493,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3414
},
"p_final": 0.3414,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0493,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.6719,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6537
}
},
"edge": 0.1309,
"ev": 0.2944,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1308,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0238,
"market_prob": 0.3358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1799,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0328,
"ev": -0.1413,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6314
},
"p_final": 0.3596,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0326,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1308,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3596
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1759,
"ev": 0.3934,
"implied_prob": 0.3421,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1574092,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3934,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2927,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4137
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2944,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2944,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gloggnitz",
"home": "Scheiblingkirchen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.142647,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3934,
"implied_prob": 0.3421,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0606,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1574092,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:29:53.673949+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Scheiblingkirchen & Gloggnitz!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Regionalliga Este — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | Wiener SC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Oberwart | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Traiskirchen | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Wiener Viktoria | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Scheiblingkirchen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Parndorf | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Fach-Donaufeld | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | SV Horn | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Krems / Rehberg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Leobendorf | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Mattersburg SV 2020 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Donau | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Favoritner AC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Gloggnitz | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Wienerberg | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 9 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 21 |
| 2 | Traiskirchen | 9 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 17 |
| 3 | Wiener SC | 9 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 19 |
| 4 | Oberwart | 9 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 18 |
| 5 | Wiener Viktoria | 9 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 | Parndorf | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Scheiblingkirchen | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Donau | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | SV Horn | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Krems / Rehberg | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Fach-Donaufeld | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Mattersburg SV 2020 | 9 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Gloggnitz | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Leobendorf | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Favoritner AC | 9 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Wienerberg | 9 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 0 |
