Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1
1.17
2
1.43
xG Accuracy: 82%
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Atlético Madrid Femenino Atlético Madrid Femenino ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Atlético Madrid Femenino win · Deportivo de La Coruña Femenino 1–2 Atlético Madrid Femenino
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f9dcc0ae82ce4a7dc624f717079c178f097101daf6fb0d9ded96fa3adb49bba1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.43,
"away_win_prob": 0.414,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.42,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.42,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.17,
"home_win_prob": 0.2925,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino"
},
"away_xg": 1.43,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1037,
"edge_gap": 0.1201,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5174,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.4,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 29.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.79
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.79,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.93,
"market_odds": 1.79,
"model_odds": 2.42,
"overround": 8.0,
"prob_edge": -14.5,
"value_pct": -26.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 76.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 69.0,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.43,
"home_expected": 1.17,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino or Draw",
"prob": 58.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino or Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"prob": 70.8
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"pick_prob": 70.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.4,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 29.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.6,
"implied_prob": 24.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino Win",
"model_prob": 29.2,
"odds": 4.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 51.74,
"draw": 25.44,
"home": 22.81
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:56:35",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:37:53",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.81,
"gap_pp": 6.46,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 29.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.44,
"gap_pp": 3.91,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.36
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.74,
"gap_pp": -10.37,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.74,
"gap_pp": -8.54,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.26,
"gap_pp": 8.54,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.06,
"early": 4.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.81,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.64,
"early": 3.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.44,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.79,
"early": 1.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.74,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.74,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.26,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.3,
"ev": 0.116,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.17,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1969,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0164,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4347,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1079,
"implied_prob": 0.5653,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5473
},
"p_final": 0.4511,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0982,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1969,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.4347,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4511
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.5,
"text": "+14.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1448,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10280.32,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0072,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4251,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0704,
"implied_prob": 0.4251,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4324
},
"p_final": 0.4324,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0131,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0704,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2349,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.5749,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5669
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0327,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.3,
"text": "+3.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0965,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.7,
"text": "-9.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0327,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10029.43,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1679,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5174,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0264,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"sort_key": 1793.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"alert_team": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.34,
"hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 51.7,
"market_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.29 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1573602 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.29 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5174,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.34,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.34,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.43,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.17,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.17 \u00b7 Away xG 1.43 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.29 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1573602 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.29 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5174,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino 1.17 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino 1.43 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino 41.4%",
"Market: Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino ~51.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino \u2193 -7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino, but sharp money moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.44,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"market_prob": 22.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.92,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"market_prob": 51.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.4,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.4,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.4,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 51.74,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino\u0027s win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.34,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.3,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino 1.17 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino 1.43 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino 41.4%",
"Market: Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino ~51.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino \u2193 -7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino, but sharp money moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.34,
"hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino odds shortened \u2193 -7.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, with odds shortening by 7.5%. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino \u2014 odds shortened by 7.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, with odds shortening by 7.5%. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino \u2014 odds shortened by 7.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.5%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.34,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.44,
"edge_pp": 6.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 22.81,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.92,
"edge_pp": 3.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.44,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.34,
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 51.74,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino \u2014 odds shortened by 7.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino (51.7%).",
"Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -7.5%, 3/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino, Market \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino, Recent sharp money \u2192 Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.87,
"closing_odds": 1.79,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.87,
"entry_odds": 1.79,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 5m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino (swing 4.10 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 3.70) \u2014 net 7.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.06",
"3.88",
"3.70"
],
"display": "4.10 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 5m",
"pick_team": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
4.06,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.06"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "atletico-madrid-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"away_team_id": 1910,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1910.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"away_team_public_id": "5iSev6isnEcOaC",
"away_team_slug": "atletico-madrid-w",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1573602,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"home_team_id": 6376,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6376.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino",
"home_team_public_id": "5hwlthHr4i3Aqf",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-de-la-coruna-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-de-la-coruna-w",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina",
"league_id": 142,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/142.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina",
"league_public_id": "3UVWpFHIZoilN7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2MkI064v8ROUhN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de Riazor"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5066,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0526,
"ev": -0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.5174,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5174,
"draw": 0.2544,
"home": 0.2281
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.4649
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2824,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.2544,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5174,
"draw": 0.2544,
"home": 0.2281
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2655
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1806,
"best_odd": 4.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0264,
"implied_prob": 0.2281,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5174,
"draw": 0.2544,
"home": 0.2281
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.2398
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.145,
"ev": -0.2595,
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"model_prob": 0.4137
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": 0.0686,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.06,
"edge": 0.0464,
"ev": 0.1885,
"implied_prob": 0.2463,
"model_prob": 0.2927
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2136,
"alpha_yes": 0.2349,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.034,
"edge_yes": -0.034,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0327,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0704,
"ev_yes": -0.0965,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0986,
"implied_no": 0.425,
"implied_yes": 0.575,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0704,
"implied_prob": 0.4251,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4324
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2349,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.5749,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5669
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4324,
"p_final_yes": 0.5669,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2166,
"alpha_under": 0.1969,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.21,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.084,
"edge_under": 0.084,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1079,
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0437,
"implied_over": 0.566,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5653,
"implied_under": 0.434,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4347,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1079,
"implied_prob": 0.5653,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5473
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1969,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.4347,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4511
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5473,
"p_final_under": 0.4511,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.29 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1573602 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.29 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5174,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0526,
"ev": -0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.5174,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0072,
"market_prob": 0.4251,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0704,
"implied_prob": 0.4251,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4324
},
"p_final": 0.4324,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0704,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2349,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.5749,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5669
}
},
"edge": 0.034,
"ev": 0.0327,
"implied_prob": 0.425,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1969,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0164,
"market_prob": 0.4347,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1079,
"implied_prob": 0.5653,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5473
},
"p_final": 0.4511,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1969,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.4347,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4511
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.084,
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1573602,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1448,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4137,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.2927
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid Femenino",
"home": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a Femenino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052504,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5174,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1573602,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T13:56:37.713520+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División Femenina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona Femenino | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid Femenino | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club Femenino | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Eibar Femenino | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Atlético Madrid Femenino | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | FC Levante Badalona | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Espanyol Femenino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Sevilla Femenino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | EDF Logroño Femenino | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Granada CF | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Deportivo Alavés | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña Femenino | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Granadilla Tenerife Femenino | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad Femenino | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Valencia Femenino | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona Femenino | 5 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid Femenino | 5 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Athletic Club Femenino | 6 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Madrid CFF | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Atlético Madrid Femenino | 6 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Espanyol Femenino | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 8 |
| 7 | FC Levante Badalona | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 8 | Sevilla Femenino | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad Femenino | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Deportivo de La Coruña Femenino | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Granada CF | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Eibar Femenino | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | EDF Logroño Femenino | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Granadilla Tenerife Femenino | 5 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Valencia Femenino | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 0 |
| 16 | Deportivo Alavés | 6 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 6 |
