Estadísticas / Fútbol / España. Segunda Federación - Grupo 3 / Intercity vs Atlético Baleares

Intercity vs Atlético Baleares Statistics & Analysis

Sep 13, 2026 - 09:30
2 1.19
2 1.41
xG Accuracy: 68%
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 Atlético Baleares Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7422213

Closing Odds 2.49
AI Fair Odds
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Intercity 2–2 Atlético Baleares
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Atlético Baleares (1X2),Más de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Más de 2,5 goles en unos 10.2 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
Intercity (1X2) 30.1 30.8 -0.7
Dibujar (1X2) 29.4 32.4 -3.0
Atlético Baleares (1X2) 40.5 36.8 +3.7
Más de 2,5 goles 48.2 38.0 +10.2
Menos de 2,5 goles 51.8 62.0 -10.2
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 48.2% en Más de 2,5 goles, mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 38.0%. La diferencia —unos 10.2 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE1) Δ implícita (pp)
Intercity (1X2) 2.97 2.97 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 2.83 2.83 0.0
Atlético Baleares (1X2) 2.49 2.49 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 2.45 2.45 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 1.5 1.5 0.0

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Baleares as the value side (40.5%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
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                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
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            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 3.7,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
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          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": true,
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          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
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              },
              {
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                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "84 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "88 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Baleares).",
            "Decision strength: 7.9/10"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 84,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.0449,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.49,
            "disagreement_label": "Normal",
            "disagreement_level": "normal",
            "implied_prob": 0.3679,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4048,
            "raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
            "raw_signal_ev": 0.008,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 4.4,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "ok",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 0,
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.22
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "8/9",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 75,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 23.2,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 8.9,
            "steam_coherence": 5.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 84,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 3.63,
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "max_gap_pp": 3.63,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.41,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 4.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.19,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.41,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Intercity",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 88,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 81,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 40,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 81,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Baleares).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 3.7,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Baleares)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 3.7,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "high",
              "probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Baleares)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
            "confidence_band": "High",
            "decision_strength": 7.9,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 88,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Baleares at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Baleares as the value side (40.5%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 3.7,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "84 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "88 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Baleares).",
              "Decision strength: 7.9/10"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 84,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.0449,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.49,
              "disagreement_label": "Normal",
              "disagreement_level": "normal",
              "implied_prob": 0.3679,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4048,
              "raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
              "raw_signal_ev": 0.008,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 4.4,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "ok",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 0,
                "strength_delta": 0.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.22
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Intercity 1.19 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Baleares 1.41 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Baleares 40.4%",
            "Market: Atl\u00e9tico Baleares ~36.8% implied",
            "Market Steam: Intercity +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atl\u00e9tico Baleares with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.7,
          "fair_prob": 30.14,
          "label": "Intercity",
          "market_prob": 30.84,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.93,
          "fair_prob": 29.44,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 32.37,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.63,
          "fair_prob": 40.42,
          "label": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
          "market_prob": 36.79,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.58,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 38.62,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.58,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 61.38,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 7.52,
          "fair_prob": 54.2,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 46.68,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.52,
          "fair_prob": 45.8,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 53.32,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 3.63,
        "fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
        "market_prob_pct": 36.79,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Intercity"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 3.63,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 36.8,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 3.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 3.6,
            "label": "High",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "High reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 84,
          "reliability_tier": "high",
          "summary": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 88,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 81,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 40,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 81,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Intercity 1.19 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Baleares 1.41 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Baleares 40.4%",
              "Market: Atl\u00e9tico Baleares ~36.8% implied",
              "Market Steam: Intercity +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atl\u00e9tico Baleares with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 3.63,
        "hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 3.63,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "aligned",
          "largest_gap_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
          "largest_gap_pp": 3.6,
          "lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
          "level": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 3.6,
          "title": "Broadly Aligned"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -0.7,
            "edge_pp": -0.7,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Intercity",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.84,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -2.93,
            "edge_pp": -2.93,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.37,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 3.63,
            "edge_pp": 3.63,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
            "market_prob_pct": 36.79,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Atl\u00e9tico Baleares (36.8%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Baleares, Market \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Baleares, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 40.16,
        "closing_odds": 2.49,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 40.16,
        "entry_odds": 2.49,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/9",
        "current_odds": 2.6,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.6,
        "pick_team": "Intercity",
        "steam_score": 27,
        "steam_team_name": "Intercity",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 3.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "atletico-baleares",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
      "away_team_id": 9381,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9381.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
      "away_team_public_id": "3M4t9qfQQtjqjP",
      "away_team_slug": "atletico-baleares",
      "country_code": "ES",
      "country_display_name": "Spain",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_id": 145,
      "country_name": "Spain",
      "fixture_id": 1572651,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Spain",
      "home_team_display_name": "Intercity",
      "home_team_id": 8160,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8160.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Intercity",
      "home_team_public_id": "27RhGnwIVLHM4k",
      "home_team_slug": "intercity",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "intercity",
      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_country_display": "Spain",
      "league_display_name": "Segunda Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 3",
      "league_id": 877,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/877.webp",
      "league_name": "Segunda Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 3",
      "league_public_id": "20Q4MJCVOREU7Q",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-13 09:30:00",
      "public_id": "1M7cWIyIzb0Vu4",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": "Camp Municipal Antonio Solana"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4251,
            "best_odd": 2.49,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0157,
            "ev": -0.0449,
            "implied_prob": 0.3679,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3679,
              "draw": 0.3237,
              "home": 0.3084
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4048,
            "p_final": 0.3836
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.43,
            "best_odd": 2.83,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0127,
            "ev": -0.12,
            "implied_prob": 0.3237,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3679,
              "draw": 0.3237,
              "home": 0.3084
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2941,
            "p_final": 0.3109
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4451,
            "best_odd": 2.97,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0032,
            "ev": -0.0936,
            "implied_prob": 0.3084,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3679,
              "draw": 0.3237,
              "home": 0.3084
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3012,
            "p_final": 0.3052
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.49,
            "edge": 0.0032,
            "ev": 0.0079,
            "implied_prob": 0.4016,
            "model_prob": 0.4048
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 2.83,
            "edge": -0.0593,
            "ev": -0.1678,
            "implied_prob": 0.3534,
            "model_prob": 0.2941
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.97,
            "edge": -0.0355,
            "ev": -0.1056,
            "implied_prob": 0.3367,
            "model_prob": 0.3012
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.219,
          "alpha_yes": 0.1991,
          "best_no_odd": 1.75,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.0,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.0752,
          "edge_yes": 0.0752,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1985,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1144,
          "ev_yes": 0.084,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0557,
          "implied_no": 0.5332,
          "implied_yes": 0.4668,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.219,
              "best_odd": 1.71,
              "edge": -0.0168,
              "ev": -0.1144,
              "implied_prob": 0.5347,
              "model_prob": 0.458,
              "p_final": 0.5179
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1991,
              "best_odd": 1.965,
              "edge": 0.0153,
              "ev": -0.0557,
              "implied_prob": 0.4653,
              "model_prob": 0.542,
              "p_final": 0.4806
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "p_final_no": 0.5179,
          "p_final_yes": 0.4806,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.1534,
          "alpha_under": 0.211,
          "best_over_odd": 2.45,
          "best_under_odd": 1.53,
          "consensus_over_odd": 2.41,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_over": 0.0958,
          "edge_under": -0.0958,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1809,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0391,
          "ev_under": -0.2075,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1066,
          "implied_over": 0.3862,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.3836,
          "implied_under": 0.6138,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.6164,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1534,
              "best_odd": 2.41,
              "edge": 0.0151,
              "ev": -0.0391,
              "implied_prob": 0.3836,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.3987
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.211,
              "best_odd": 1.5,
              "edge": -0.0208,
              "ev": -0.1066,
              "implied_prob": 0.6164,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5956
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.3987,
          "p_final_under": 0.5956,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1809,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.9,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.9,
        "score_pre_penalty": 7.9
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 3.7,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Baleares)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
        "confidence_band": "High",
        "decision_strength": 7.9,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 88,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Baleares at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Baleares as the value side (40.5%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 3.7,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "84 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "88 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Baleares).",
          "Decision strength: 7.9/10"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 84,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.0449,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.49,
          "disagreement_label": "Normal",
          "disagreement_level": "normal",
          "implied_prob": 0.3679,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4048,
          "raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.008,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 4.4,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "ok",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 0,
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.22
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
          "draw_prob": 0.2941,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.22
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.49,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0157,
          "ev": -0.0449,
          "implied_prob": 0.3679,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4048,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1991,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.965,
            "edge": 0.0153,
            "market_prob": 0.4653,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.542,
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.219,
              "best_odd": 1.71,
              "edge": -0.0168,
              "ev": -0.1144,
              "implied_prob": 0.5347,
              "model_prob": 0.458,
              "p_final": 0.5179
            },
            "p_final": 0.4806,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0557,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1991,
              "best_odd": 1.965,
              "edge": 0.0153,
              "ev": -0.0557,
              "implied_prob": 0.4653,
              "model_prob": 0.542,
              "p_final": 0.4806
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0752,
          "ev": 0.084,
          "implied_prob": 0.4668,
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1534,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.41,
            "edge": 0.0151,
            "market_prob": 0.3836,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1534,
              "best_odd": 2.41,
              "edge": 0.0151,
              "ev": -0.0391,
              "implied_prob": 0.3836,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.3987
            },
            "p_final": 0.3987,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0391,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.211,
              "best_odd": 1.5,
              "edge": -0.0208,
              "ev": -0.1066,
              "implied_prob": 0.6164,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5956
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": 0.0958,
          "ev": 0.1809,
          "implied_prob": 0.3862,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1572651,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1809,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4048,
        "draw": 0.2941,
        "home": 0.3012
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.084,
        "implied_prob": 0.4668,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.542,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.084,
          "implied_prob": 0.4668,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Atl\u00e9tico Baleares",
        "home": "Intercity"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.061036,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1809,
        "implied_prob": 0.3862,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.0449,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
        "consensus_odds": 2.49,
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "implied_prob": 0.3679,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4048,
        "raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
        "raw_signal_ev": 0.008,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1572651,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T09:29:51.039430+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Segunda Federación - Grupo 3 Segunda Federación - Grupo 3Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Castellón B 2 1 0 1 3
2 Castellonense 1 1 0 0 3
3 Intercity 1 1 0 0 3
4 Orihuela 1 1 0 0 3
5 Deportiva Minera 1 1 0 0 3
6 La Nucía 1 1 0 0 3
7 Yeclano 1 1 0 0 3
8 Cieza 1 0 1 0 1
9 Elche B 1 0 1 0 1
10 Lorca Deportiva 1 0 1 0 1
11 Mallorca B 1 0 1 0 1
12 Valencia B 1 0 1 0 1
13 CD Alcoyano 2 0 1 1 1
14 Real Murcia Imperial 1 0 0 1 0
15 UCAM Murcia 1 0 0 1 0
16 Atlético Baleares 1 0 0 1 0
17 Peña Deportiva 1 0 0 1 0
18 Poblense 1 0 0 1 0
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Castellón B 2 4 2 +2 3
2 Castellonense 1 2 1 +1 3
3 Intercity 1 2 1 +1 3
4 Orihuela 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Deportiva Minera 1 1 0 +1 3
6 La Nucía 1 1 0 +1 3
7 Yeclano 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Cieza 1 1 1 0 1
9 Elche B 1 1 1 0 1
10 Lorca Deportiva 1 1 1 0 1
11 Mallorca B 1 1 1 0 1
12 Valencia B 1 1 1 0 1
13 Real Murcia Imperial 1 1 2 -1 0
14 UCAM Murcia 1 1 2 -1 0
15 CD Alcoyano 2 1 4 -3 1
16 Atlético Baleares 1 0 1 -1 0
17 Peña Deportiva 1 0 1 -1 0
18 Poblense 1 0 1 -1 0