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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Marek Marek ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Marek win · Marek 3–2 Beroe
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3de0ae9ebfa6a1de9871dd874bf044ee910554888cf55932a84c93e165762030",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": 0.3285,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.04,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"home_win_prob": 0.3754,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Marek or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Marek"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Marek",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0691,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4448,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.9,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 2.05
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.04
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.02
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.02
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.0
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.0
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.05,
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"display_market": "Marek Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.25,
"market_odds": 2.02,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 11.2,
"prob_edge": -11.2,
"value_pct": -22.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 11,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 11,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Marek or Draw",
"prob": 67.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Marek or Beroe",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Beroe",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Marek or Beroe",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Marek"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"edge": 15.1,
"implied_prob": 28.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Beroe Win",
"model_prob": 32.9,
"odds": 3.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0159,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4645,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.518
},
"p_final": 0.4804,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0682,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0584,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.4645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4804
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.09,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10231.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0124,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4042,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4166
},
"p_final": 0.4166,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0941,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5788
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.3,
"text": "+13.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1327,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10119.43,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1572,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0414,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.1,
"text": "-4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Marek",
"sort_key": 1789.65,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Marek",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Marek",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1505,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 66,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marek at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marek as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marek",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1572,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market has already priced much of the edge",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Marek",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1505,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 66,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marek at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marek as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marek",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1572,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Marek 1.35 xG vs Beroe 1.25 \u2192 Marek 37.5%",
"Market Steam: Marek +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Marek with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Marek",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Beroe",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.68,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.68,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.07,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.07,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Marek",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "No clear directional signal",
"positive": null
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.0,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Marek, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Beroe remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Marek 1.35 xG vs Beroe 1.25 \u2192 Marek 37.5%",
"Market Steam: Marek +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Marek with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Marek",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Beroe",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Marek (37.5%).",
"The model and market both lean Marek, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Beroe remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
"entry_odds": 2.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Marek",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Marek",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "beroe",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Beroe",
"away_team_id": 857,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/857.webp",
"away_team_name": "Beroe",
"away_team_public_id": "4uBqhTfnvNn72Y",
"away_team_slug": "beroe",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1571585,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Marek",
"home_team_id": 8543,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8543.webp",
"home_team_name": "Marek",
"home_team_public_id": "1KgJsFXMPzOtyH",
"home_team_slug": "marek",
"ht.home_team_slug": "marek",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Liga de Bulgaria",
"league_id": 173,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/173.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga de Bulgaria",
"league_public_id": "1iWu3HXy1qf6Ut",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 13:00:00",
"public_id": "1guHXGqw6iA41u",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dupnitsa",
"venue_name": "Stadion Bonchuk"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2711,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2646,
"draw": 0.2902,
"home": 0.4453
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2819
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2975,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2646,
"draw": 0.2902,
"home": 0.4453
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2918
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.403,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1572,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2646,
"draw": 0.2902,
"home": 0.4453
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4172
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.043,
"ev": 0.1505,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.0835,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.1121,
"ev": -0.2299,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2176,
"alpha_yes": 0.1978,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0807,
"edge_yes": 0.0807,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1194,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0584,
"implied_no": 0.5357,
"implied_yes": 0.4643,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.518
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.4645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4804
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.518,
"p_final_yes": 0.4804,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.159,
"alpha_under": 0.2186,
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.27,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.54,
"edge_over": 0.0768,
"edge_under": -0.0768,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0544,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1087,
"implied_over": 0.4052,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4042,
"implied_under": 0.5948,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5958,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4166
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4166,
"p_final_under": 0.5788,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1505,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1505,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 66,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marek at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marek as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marek",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1572,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1572,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Marek"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0159,
"market_prob": 0.4645,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.518
},
"p_final": 0.4804,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0584,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.4645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4804
}
},
"edge": 0.0807,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4643,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0124,
"market_prob": 0.4042,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4166
},
"p_final": 0.4166,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5788
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0768,
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571585,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1327,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Beroe",
"home": "Marek"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04905,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4643,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1572,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571585,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-07T00:39:14.127726+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda Liga de Bulgaria — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | Fratria | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Beroe | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Marek | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 15 | Montana | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 23 |
| 4 | Nesebar | 11 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Fratria | 11 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 22 |
| 7 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Beroe | 11 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 | Montana | 11 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 12 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Marek | 11 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 16 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 4 | 33 | -29 | 0 |
