Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Levante Villarreal ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Villarreal win · Villarreal 3–1 Levante
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "25def052df1e4f75bd292c702ee8c612abf14fdc942f47901bba520a2965a758",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.75,
"away_win_prob": 0.3802,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.308,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.692,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2478,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.04,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.69,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.73,
"home_win_prob": 0.372,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.675,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.325
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Villarreal or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Villarreal"
},
"away_xg": 1.75,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Levante",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2134,
"edge_gap": 0.0085,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.167,
"model_prob": 0.3804,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.0,
"draw": 24.8,
"home": 37.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 5.79
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 5.79,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Levante Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 5.99,
"market_odds": 5.79,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 20.8,
"value_pct": 120.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 82.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 82.3,
"no_prob": 30.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 69.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 69.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.75,
"home_expected": 1.73,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Villarreal or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Villarreal or Levante",
"prob": 75.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Levante",
"prob": 62.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Villarreal or Levante",
"pick_prob": 75.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 24.8,
"home_pct": 37.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Levante"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.48,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 67.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.48,
"under_prob": 32.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 120.2,
"implied_prob": 17.3,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Levante Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 5.79
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Levante",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 16.7,
"draw": 19.69,
"home": 63.61
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 16:29:48",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 16:01:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Villarreal",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.48,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.61,
"gap_pp": -26.42,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.19
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.69,
"gap_pp": 5.07,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.76
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 16.7,
"gap_pp": 21.34,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.04
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.65,
"gap_pp": 1.85,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 67.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.35,
"gap_pp": -1.85,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 32.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.52,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.48,
"implied_early_pct": 63.13,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.91,
"early": 4.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.69,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.14,
"implied_early_pct": 19.83,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.79,
"early": 5.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 16.7,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.34,
"implied_early_pct": 17.04,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.65,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.81,
"early": 2.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.35,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.2,
"ev": -0.1165,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.093,
"model_prob_pct": 9.3,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.73,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
"best_odds": 5.95,
"confidence": "no_clear_edge",
"display_label": "Away Levante",
"edge": 21.2,
"ev": 0.0,
"probability": 38.0
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5032,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0432,
"edge_pp": 4.3,
"market_prob": 0.6062,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.692,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3659,
"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1465,
"implied_prob": 0.3938,
"model_prob": 0.308,
"p_final": 0.3624
},
"p_final": 0.6494,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0588,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0065,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5032,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0432,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.6062,
"model_prob": 0.692,
"p_final": 0.6494
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.23,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.0,
"text": "-23.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0864,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.6,
"text": "+8.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0864,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 30.8,
"sort_key": 10227.76,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 69.2
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.79,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1349,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.5,
"text": "+13.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1349,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.5,
"text": "+13.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3804,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+120.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Levante",
"sort_key": 10121.41,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5601,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0112,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.6549,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.675,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5601,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.6549,
"model_prob": 0.675,
"p_final": 0.6662
},
"p_final": 0.6662,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0415,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.054,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4074,
"best_odd": 2.695,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.3451,
"model_prob": 0.325,
"p_final": 0.3369
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0077,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.8,
"text": "-0.8%"
},
"ev_under": -0.064,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.4,
"text": "-6.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0077,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 67.5,
"sort_key": 1798.075,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 32.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 26.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.41,
"hero_label": "Villarreal",
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"market_team": "Villarreal",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Levante",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Levante), but pricing still diverges by 26.4 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Levante), but pricing still diverges by 26.4 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.012025999999999998,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Levante at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Levante as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Levante",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Levante), but pricing still diverges by 26.4 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.79,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3804,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17271157167530224,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+120.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 26.41,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 26.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.75,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 30.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.73,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.75,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.73 \u00b7 Away xG 1.75 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +30%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Levante), but pricing still diverges by 26.4 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Levante), but pricing still diverges by 26.4 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Levante), but pricing still diverges by 26.4 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.012025999999999998,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Levante at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Levante as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Levante",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Levante), but pricing still diverges by 26.4 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.79,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3804,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17271157167530224,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+120.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Villarreal 1.73 xG vs Levante 1.75 \u2192 Levante 38.0%",
"Market: Villarreal ~16.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +18.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Levante, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -26.41,
"fair_prob": 37.2,
"label": "Villarreal",
"market_prob": 63.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.09,
"fair_prob": 24.78,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.32,
"fair_prob": 38.02,
"label": "Levante",
"market_prob": 16.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.01,
"fair_prob": 67.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.01,
"fair_prob": 32.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.61,
"fair_prob": 69.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.61,
"fair_prob": 30.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -26.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.2,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Villarreal",
"market_prob_pct": 63.61,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Villarreal\u0027s win probability at 63.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.2%, a difference of 26.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 26.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Levante",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 21.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Levante \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+21.3 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Villarreal 1.73 xG vs Levante 1.75 \u2192 Levante 38.0%",
"Market: Villarreal ~16.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +18.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Levante, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.41,
"hero_label": "Villarreal",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +18.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 26.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.8,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Villarreal",
"largest_gap_pp": -26.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Villarreal higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 26.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -26.41,
"edge_pp": -26.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.2,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Villarreal",
"market_prob_pct": 63.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.09,
"edge_pp": 5.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.78,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.69,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 21.32,
"edge_pp": 21.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Levante",
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Villarreal (16.7%).",
"However, Draw has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.8%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Levante, Market \u2192 Villarreal, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 65.79,
"closing_odds": 1.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 65.79,
"entry_odds": 1.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Draw together (18.8% drift, score 65) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.91",
"4.46",
"4.00"
],
"display": "4.93 \u2192 3.81 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 57m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.93"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.81"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
4.91,
4.87,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,0.8 56.0,3.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Draw odds \u2191 +18.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Draw odds \u2191 +18.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 26.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "levante",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Levante",
"away_team_id": 539,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/539.webp",
"away_team_name": "Levante",
"away_team_public_id": "08frKxO2Ot0yex",
"away_team_slug": "levante",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570402,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Villarreal",
"home_team_id": 533,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/533.webp",
"home_team_name": "Villarreal",
"home_team_public_id": "0IpdF7vJ229w15",
"home_team_slug": "villarreal",
"ht.home_team_slug": "villarreal",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "LaLiga",
"league_id": 140,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
"league_name": "LaLiga",
"league_public_id": "49oABHuePA7Q7M",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 16:30:00",
"public_id": "43YAGDJDmQiNIk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Villarreal",
"venue_name": "Estadio de la Cer\u00e1mica"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.136,
"best_odd": 5.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.029,
"ev": 0.1349,
"implied_prob": 0.167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.167,
"draw": 0.1969,
"home": 0.6361
},
"model_prob": 0.3804,
"p_final": 0.196
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1848,
"best_odd": 4.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": 0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.1969,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.167,
"draw": 0.1969,
"home": 0.6361
},
"model_prob": 0.2476,
"p_final": 0.2063
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3623,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0957,
"ev": -0.1786,
"implied_prob": 0.6361,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.167,
"draw": 0.1969,
"home": 0.6361
},
"model_prob": 0.3719,
"p_final": 0.5404
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.79,
"edge": 0.2077,
"ev": 1.2026,
"implied_prob": 0.1727,
"model_prob": 0.3804
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.91,
"edge": 0.044,
"ev": 0.216,
"implied_prob": 0.2037,
"model_prob": 0.2476
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.286,
"ev": -0.4347,
"implied_prob": 0.6579,
"model_prob": 0.3719
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3659,
"alpha_yes": 0.5032,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0861,
"edge_yes": 0.0861,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.23,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1465,
"ev_yes": 0.0864,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0065,
"implied_no": 0.3941,
"implied_yes": 0.6059,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3659,
"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1465,
"implied_prob": 0.3938,
"model_prob": 0.308,
"p_final": 0.3624
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5032,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0432,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.6062,
"model_prob": 0.692,
"p_final": 0.6494
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3624,
"p_final_yes": 0.6494,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5601,
"alpha_under": 0.4074,
"best_over_odd": 1.47,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.42,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.695,
"edge_over": 0.0201,
"edge_under": -0.0201,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0077,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.054,
"ev_under": -0.064,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0921,
"implied_over": 0.6549,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6549,
"implied_under": 0.3451,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3451,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5601,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.6549,
"model_prob": 0.675,
"p_final": 0.6662
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4074,
"best_odd": 2.695,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.3451,
"model_prob": 0.325,
"p_final": 0.3369
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6662,
"p_final_under": 0.3369,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.48,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.2026,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1349,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.1,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Levante), but pricing still diverges by 26.4 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.012025999999999998,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Levante at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Levante as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Levante",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Levante), but pricing still diverges by 26.4 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.79,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3804,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17271157167530224,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+120.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.692,
"draw_prob": 0.2476,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3804,
"over_prob": 0.675,
"total_xg": 3.48,
"under_prob": 0.325,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.79,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.029,
"ev": 0.1349,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.167,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3804,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Levante"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5032,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0432,
"market_prob": 0.6062,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.692,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3659,
"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1465,
"implied_prob": 0.3938,
"model_prob": 0.308,
"p_final": 0.3624
},
"p_final": 0.6494,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0065,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5032,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0432,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.6062,
"model_prob": 0.692,
"p_final": 0.6494
}
},
"edge": 0.0861,
"ev": 0.0864,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6059,
"model_prob": 0.692,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5601,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.6549,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.675,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5601,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.6549,
"model_prob": 0.675,
"p_final": 0.6662
},
"p_final": 0.6662,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.054,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4074,
"best_odd": 2.695,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.3451,
"model_prob": 0.325,
"p_final": 0.3369
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0077,
"implied_prob": 0.6549,
"model_prob": 0.675,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1570402,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1349,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2476,
"home": 0.3719
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Levante",
"home": "Villarreal"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.068757,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.6059,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.692,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.79,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3804,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17271157167530224,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+120.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570402,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T16:29:50.100435+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Villarreal & Levante!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
LaLiga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche CF | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 7 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Alavés | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 6 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Elche CF | 7 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Racing Santander | 7 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 | Levante | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Athletic Club | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 17 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Getafe | 7 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 14.9 | 2.7 | +12.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | +3.9 | 15 |
| 3 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | +3.4 | 8 |
| 4 | Alavés | 7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | +2.2 | 11 |
| 5 | Racing Santander | 7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 7 | 7.6 | 7.0 | +0.6 | 8 |
| 7 | Espanyol | 7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Real Betis | 7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | -0.2 | 16 |
| 9 | Levante | 6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | -0.3 | 5 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 13 |
| 11 | Málaga | 7 | 4.3 | 5.1 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | -0.8 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3.6 | 5.0 | -1.4 | 10 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2.9 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -2.2 | 16 |
| 16 | Elche CF | 7 | 3.2 | 6.0 | -2.8 | 5 |
| 17 | Getafe | 7 | 2.8 | 5.6 | -2.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Valencia | 7 | 3.7 | 6.9 | -3.2 | 4 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 3.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | 8 |
| 20 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 2.4 | 6.5 | -4.1 | 7 |
