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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Alavés Valencia ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 0-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Valencia win · Alavés 0–1 Valencia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.1843,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 5.43,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.7,
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"fair_odds_home": 1.83,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.69,
"home_win_prob": 0.5454,
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"over_25_prob": 0.479,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.521
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Alav\u00e9s and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Alav\u00e9s"
},
"away_xg": 0.9,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Alav\u00e9s",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0236,
"edge_gap": 0.2759,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.546,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 18.4,
"draw": 27.0,
"home": 54.6
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.7
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.7,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Alav\u00e9s Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.76,
"market_odds": 1.7,
"model_odds": 1.83,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": -4.2,
"value_pct": -7.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 59.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 81.5,
"no_prob": 50.1,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 49.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.9,
"home_expected": 1.69,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "2-0",
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},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Alav\u00e9s or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Alav\u00e9s or Valencia",
"prob": 72.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Valencia",
"prob": 45.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
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"pick_prob": 81.5
},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.59,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"total_expected": 2.59,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 6.0,
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Valencia Win",
"model_prob": 18.4,
"odds": 5.76
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 16.81,
"draw": 26.24,
"home": 56.95
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 17:59:21",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 17:29:24",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Alav\u00e9s",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.24,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 16.81,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.15,
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},
{
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}
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"movement": [
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},
{
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{
"closing": 5.76,
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{
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{
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},
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"n_bookmakers": 12,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"prob": 12.7
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"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "1-1",
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{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
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"implied_prob": 0.5481,
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"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0777,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.8,
"text": "+7.8%"
},
"ev_under": -0.057,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 11,
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"sort_key": 10219.93,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 52.1,
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},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.055,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.5,
"text": "-5.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0139,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -1.4,
"text": "-1.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.546,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0718,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Alav\u00e9s",
"sort_key": 1796.525,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0102,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.48,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.499,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.52,
"model_prob": 0.501,
"p_final": 0.5098
},
"p_final": 0.4902,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.027,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0442,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.48,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"p_final": 0.4902
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0631,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.3,
"text": "-6.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.022,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.2,
"text": "-2.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.022,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 50.1,
"sort_key": 1794.5,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 49.9
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 12.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"alert_team": "Valencia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.41,
"hero_label": "Alav\u00e9s",
"market_prob_pct": 57.0,
"market_team": "Alav\u00e9s",
"model_prob_pct": 54.5,
"model_team": "Alav\u00e9s",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alav\u00e9s)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alav\u00e9s)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0777,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0777,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alav\u00e9s at 54.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alav\u00e9s as the value side (54.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alav\u00e9s",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alav\u00e9s).",
"Decision strength: 8.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.546,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0718,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 25.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.79
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 96,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.41,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.9,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 25.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.69,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.69,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.69 \u00b7 Away xG 0.90 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +25%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 69.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"steam_team": "Valencia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alav\u00e9s).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alav\u00e9s)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alav\u00e9s)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0777,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0777,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alav\u00e9s at 54.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alav\u00e9s as the value side (54.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alav\u00e9s",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alav\u00e9s).",
"Decision strength: 8.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.546,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0718,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 25.2,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.79"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.79
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alav\u00e9s 1.69 xG vs Valencia 0.90 \u2192 Alav\u00e9s 54.5%",
"Market: Alav\u00e9s ~57.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Valencia odds \u2191 +69.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Alav\u00e9s projects stronger on expected goals (+0.79 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.41,
"fair_prob": 54.54,
"label": "Alav\u00e9s",
"market_prob": 56.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.79,
"fair_prob": 27.03,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.62,
"fair_prob": 18.43,
"label": "Valencia",
"market_prob": 16.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.12,
"fair_prob": 47.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.12,
"fair_prob": 52.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.59,
"fair_prob": 49.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.59,
"fair_prob": 50.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Alav\u00e9s",
"market_prob_pct": 56.95,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Valencia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Alav\u00e9s",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 57.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.5,
"model_prob_pct": 54.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Alav\u00e9s \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alav\u00e9s 1.69 xG vs Valencia 0.90 \u2192 Alav\u00e9s 54.5%",
"Market: Alav\u00e9s ~57.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Valencia odds \u2191 +69.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Alav\u00e9s projects stronger on expected goals (+0.79 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.41,
"hero_label": "Alav\u00e9s",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Valencia odds lengthened \u2191 +69.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Valencia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Valencia \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Valencia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Valencia \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Valencia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on Valencia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 27.5 pp (at 54.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 27.5,
"max_prob_pct": 54.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Alav\u00e9s",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.41,
"edge_pp": -2.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Alav\u00e9s",
"market_prob_pct": 56.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.79,
"edge_pp": 0.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.24,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.62,
"edge_pp": 1.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.43,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Valencia",
"market_prob_pct": 16.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Valencia \u2014 odds lengthened by 69.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Alav\u00e9s (57.0%).",
"However, Valencia has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +69.1%, 11/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Alav\u00e9s \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.82,
"closing_odds": 1.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.82,
"entry_odds": 1.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +76.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 76.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 69.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +66.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 66.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +58.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 58.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +56.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 56.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +55.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 55.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +52.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 52.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +47.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 47.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +47.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 47.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 69.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"11/13 books lengthened Valencia together (69.1% drift, score 64) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 69.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.76",
"4.58",
"3.40"
],
"display": "5.76 \u2192 3.08 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 46m",
"pick_team": "Valencia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.76"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
5.76,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,0.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Valencia odds \u2191 +69.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Valencia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Valencia odds \u2191 +69.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Valencia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +69.1%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Valencia",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Valencia",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "valencia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Valencia",
"away_team_id": 532,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/532.webp",
"away_team_name": "Valencia",
"away_team_public_id": "4dD8TTCH0PosRy",
"away_team_slug": "valencia",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570383,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Alav\u00e9s",
"home_team_id": 542,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/542.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alav\u00e9s",
"home_team_public_id": "0zhMH13aM4Xljs",
"home_team_slug": "alaves",
"ht.home_team_slug": "alaves",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "LaLiga",
"league_id": 140,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
"league_name": "LaLiga",
"league_public_id": "49oABHuePA7Q7M",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3bmMomxwgDuCmL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Victoria-Gasteiz",
"venue_name": "Estadio de Mendizorroza"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1952,
"best_odd": 5.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0031,
"ev": -0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.1681,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1681,
"draw": 0.2624,
"home": 0.5695
},
"model_prob": 0.184,
"p_final": 0.1712
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2966,
"best_odd": 3.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0234,
"implied_prob": 0.2624,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1681,
"draw": 0.2624,
"home": 0.5695
},
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.2647
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5788,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1681,
"draw": 0.2624,
"home": 0.5695
},
"model_prob": 0.546,
"p_final": 0.5559
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.76,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": 0.0598,
"implied_prob": 0.1736,
"model_prob": 0.184
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.69,
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.0036,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"model_prob": 0.27
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0423,
"ev": -0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.546
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5355,
"alpha_yes": 0.5355,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.96,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0159,
"edge_yes": 0.0159,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0631,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0823,
"ev_yes": -0.022,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0442,
"implied_no": 0.5169,
"implied_yes": 0.4831,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.52,
"model_prob": 0.501,
"p_final": 0.5098
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.48,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"p_final": 0.4902
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5098,
"p_final_yes": 0.4902,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5289,
"alpha_under": 0.5818,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.74,
"edge_over": 0.0312,
"edge_under": -0.0312,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0777,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0162,
"ev_under": -0.057,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0738,
"implied_over": 0.4478,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4519,
"implied_under": 0.5522,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5481,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5289,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0162,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"model_prob": 0.479,
"p_final": 0.4663
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5818,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0738,
"implied_prob": 0.5481,
"model_prob": 0.521,
"p_final": 0.5323
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4663,
"p_final_under": 0.5323,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.59,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0777,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0777,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0777,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alav\u00e9s)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0777,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0777,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alav\u00e9s at 54.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alav\u00e9s as the value side (54.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alav\u00e9s",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alav\u00e9s).",
"Decision strength: 8.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.546,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0718,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 25.2,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.79"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.79
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.499,
"draw_prob": 0.27,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.546,
"over_prob": 0.479,
"total_xg": 2.59,
"under_prob": 0.521,
"xg_diff": 0.79
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.546,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Alav\u00e9s"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.48,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.499,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.52,
"model_prob": 0.501,
"p_final": 0.5098
},
"p_final": 0.4902,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0442,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.48,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"p_final": 0.4902
}
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.022,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5289,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0143,
"market_prob": 0.4519,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.479,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5289,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0162,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"model_prob": 0.479,
"p_final": 0.4663
},
"p_final": 0.4663,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0162,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5818,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0738,
"implied_prob": 0.5481,
"model_prob": 0.521,
"p_final": 0.5323
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.4478,
"model_prob": 0.479,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1570383,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0777,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.184,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.546
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Valencia",
"home": "Alav\u00e9s"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.037218,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.4478,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.479,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.546,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0718,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570383,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T17:59:23.027264+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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LaLiga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche CF | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 7 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Alavés | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 6 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Elche CF | 7 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Racing Santander | 7 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 | Levante | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Athletic Club | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 17 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Getafe | 7 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 14.9 | 2.7 | +12.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | +3.9 | 15 |
| 3 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | +3.4 | 8 |
| 4 | Alavés | 7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | +2.2 | 11 |
| 5 | Racing Santander | 7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 7 | 7.6 | 7.0 | +0.6 | 8 |
| 7 | Espanyol | 7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Real Betis | 7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | -0.2 | 16 |
| 9 | Levante | 6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | -0.3 | 5 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 13 |
| 11 | Málaga | 7 | 4.3 | 5.1 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | -0.8 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3.6 | 5.0 | -1.4 | 10 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2.9 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -2.2 | 16 |
| 16 | Elche CF | 7 | 3.2 | 6.0 | -2.8 | 5 |
| 17 | Getafe | 7 | 2.8 | 5.6 | -2.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Valencia | 7 | 3.7 | 6.9 | -3.2 | 4 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 3.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | 8 |
| 20 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 2.4 | 6.5 | -4.1 | 7 |
