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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 FC Andorra Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sabadell 0–0 FC Andorra
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d6c5767d181c748cac8f24f4c744e994ef8c752771e3733405eb6225baf4994e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.17,
"away_win_prob": 0.3638,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.53,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.47,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3224,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.75,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.1,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.19,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.07,
"home_win_prob": 0.3138,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.388,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.612
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Sabadell or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Sabadell"
},
"away_xg": 1.17,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "FC Andorra",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1348,
"edge_gap": 0.0411,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.229,
"model_prob": 0.3637,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.4,
"draw": 32.3,
"home": 31.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.4
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 4.33
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 4.28
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 4.15
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 4.1
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 4.0
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 4.0
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 3.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.4,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "FC Andorra Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.37,
"market_odds": 4.07,
"model_odds": 2.75,
"overround": 7.3,
"prob_edge": 13.6,
"value_pct": 60.0,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 69.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 65.7,
"no_prob": 53.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 47.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.17,
"home_expected": 1.07,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sabadell or Draw",
"prob": 63.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sabadell or FC Andorra",
"prob": 67.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FC Andorra",
"prob": 68.6
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or FC Andorra",
"pick_prob": 68.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.4,
"draw_pct": 32.2,
"home_pct": 31.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "FC Andorra"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.24,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 38.8,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 61.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.24,
"under_prob": 61.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 60.2,
"implied_prob": 22.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "FC Andorra Win",
"model_prob": 36.4,
"odds": 4.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.1,
"ev": -0.1355,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.133,
"model_prob_pct": 13.3,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.07,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2432,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0104,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.5692,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.612,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2211,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0815,
"implied_prob": 0.4308,
"model_prob": 0.388,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"p_final": 0.5796,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0098,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2432,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.5692,
"model_prob": 0.612,
"p_final": 0.5796
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0998,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.0,
"text": "-10.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0526,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.3,
"text": "+5.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0526,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 38.8,
"sort_key": 10197.34,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 61.2,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra).",
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0161,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0161,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3637,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.473,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FC Andorra",
"sort_key": 5212.88,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2447,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0019,
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"market_prob": 0.5223,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.53,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2447,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.5223,
"model_prob": 0.53,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"p_final": 0.5242,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0645,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0017,
"ev": -0.0814,
"implied_prob": 0.4777,
"model_prob": 0.47,
"p_final": 0.476
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0089,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.06,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.0,
"text": "-6.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0089,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 53.0,
"sort_key": 1797.775,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 47.0
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"alert_team": "FC Andorra",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "FC Andorra",
"model_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_team": "FC Andorra",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0526,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6005,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 60,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Andorra at 36.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Andorra as the value side (36.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Andorra",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side FC Andorra \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.62 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +60% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1569958 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.62 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +60% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3637,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2469135802469136,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.473,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -13.3,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.17,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.07,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.17,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.07 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"steam_team": "FC Andorra",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0526,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6005,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 60,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Andorra at 36.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Andorra as the value side (36.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Andorra",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side FC Andorra \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.62 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +60% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1569958 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.62 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +60% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3637,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2469135802469136,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.473,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -13.3,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sabadell 1.07 xG vs FC Andorra 1.17 \u2192 FC Andorra 36.4%",
"Market Steam: FC Andorra \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Andorra with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.38,
"label": "Sabadell",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 32.24,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.38,
"label": "FC Andorra",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.05,
"fair_prob": 38.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.05,
"fair_prob": 61.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.74,
"fair_prob": 47.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.74,
"fair_prob": 53.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FC Andorra",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "FC Andorra \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sabadell 1.07 xG vs FC Andorra 1.17 \u2192 FC Andorra 36.4%",
"Market Steam: FC Andorra \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Andorra with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "FC Andorra odds shortened \u2193 -3.8%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.1 pp (at 36.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.1,
"max_prob_pct": 36.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sabadell",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Andorra",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans FC Andorra (36.4%).",
"FC Andorra has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.8%, 1/9).",
"FC Andorra \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.09,
"entry_odds": 4.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on FC Andorra (swing 4.50 \u2192 3.48 \u2192 4.33) \u2014 net 3.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.50",
"4.42",
"4.33"
],
"display": "4.50 \u2192 3.48 \u2192 4.33",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 56m",
"pick_team": "FC Andorra",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.48"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
4.33
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "FC Andorra",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FC Andorra",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "FC Andorra",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_team_name": "FC Andorra",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-andorra",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Andorra",
"away_team_id": 8157,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8157.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Andorra",
"away_team_public_id": "4uJlX5UU9PL7QL",
"away_team_slug": "fc-andorra",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1569958,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Sabadell",
"home_team_id": 9593,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9593.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sabadell",
"home_team_public_id": "4OIAs3UAxTI7hz",
"home_team_slug": "sabadell",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sabadell",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_id": 141,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/141.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_public_id": "1YfIntNgNmJtUI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 16:30:00",
"public_id": "3btlnpcxg7WbGx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Match Postponed",
"status_short": "PST",
"venue_city": "Sabadell",
"venue_name": "Nova Creu Alta"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1597,
"best_odd": 4.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": 0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2294,
"draw": 0.2904,
"home": 0.4802
},
"model_prob": 0.3637,
"p_final": 0.2509
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2855,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.2904,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2294,
"draw": 0.2904,
"home": 0.4802
},
"model_prob": 0.3227,
"p_final": 0.2996
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.45,
"best_odd": 1.935,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.075,
"ev": -0.2159,
"implied_prob": 0.4802,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2294,
"draw": 0.2904,
"home": 0.4802
},
"model_prob": 0.3136,
"p_final": 0.4052
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.4,
"edge": 0.1365,
"ev": 0.6005,
"implied_prob": 0.2273,
"model_prob": 0.3637
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": 0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.3227
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.1864,
"ev": -0.3729,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3136
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2447,
"alpha_yes": 0.2224,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0074,
"edge_yes": -0.0074,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0089,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0748,
"ev_yes": -0.06,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0814,
"implied_no": 0.5226,
"implied_yes": 0.4774,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2447,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.5223,
"model_prob": 0.53,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0017,
"ev": -0.0814,
"implied_prob": 0.4777,
"model_prob": 0.47,
"p_final": 0.476
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5242,
"p_final_yes": 0.476,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2211,
"alpha_under": 0.2432,
"best_over_odd": 2.32,
"best_under_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.18,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": -0.0405,
"edge_under": 0.0405,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0998,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0815,
"ev_under": 0.0526,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0437,
"implied_over": 0.4285,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4308,
"implied_under": 0.5715,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5692,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2211,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0815,
"implied_prob": 0.4308,
"model_prob": 0.388,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2432,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.5692,
"model_prob": 0.612,
"p_final": 0.5796
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4213,
"p_final_under": 0.5796,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.24,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0526,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6005,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0526,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0526,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6005,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 60,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Andorra at 36.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Andorra as the value side (36.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Andorra",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side FC Andorra \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.62 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +60% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1569958 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.62 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +60% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Andorra).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3637,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2469135802469136,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.473,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -13.3,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.47,
"draw_prob": 0.3227,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3637,
"over_prob": 0.388,
"total_xg": 2.24,
"under_prob": 0.612,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": 0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3637,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FC Andorra"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2447,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0019,
"market_prob": 0.5223,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.53,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2447,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.5223,
"model_prob": 0.53,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"p_final": 0.5242,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0017,
"ev": -0.0814,
"implied_prob": 0.4777,
"model_prob": 0.47,
"p_final": 0.476
}
},
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0089,
"implied_prob": 0.5226,
"model_prob": 0.53,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2432,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0104,
"market_prob": 0.5692,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.612,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2211,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0815,
"implied_prob": 0.4308,
"model_prob": 0.388,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"p_final": 0.5796,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2432,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.5692,
"model_prob": 0.612,
"p_final": 0.5796
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0405,
"ev": 0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.5715,
"model_prob": 0.612,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1569958,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0526,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.3227,
"home": 0.3136
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Andorra",
"home": "Sabadell"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022534,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.5715,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.612,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0161,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3637,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2469135802469136,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.473,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1569958,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T19:35:07.771964+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda División — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Castellón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Almería | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Burgos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | RCD Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Real Oviedo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Leganés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Sporting de Gijón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad B | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Eldense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 17 | Real Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 18 | Cádiz CF | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 20 | Córdoba CF | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 22 | Albacete | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Castellón | 7 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 19 |
| 3 | Girona | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | Almería | 8 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Burgos | 8 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Andorra | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Cádiz CF | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Las Palmas | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Granada CF | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Córdoba CF | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad B | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | RCD Mallorca | 7 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 15 | Tenerife | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Eldense | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 18 | Real Valladolid | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Leganés | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 20 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 21 | Sporting de Gijón | 7 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 10 |
| 22 | Albacete | 8 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cádiz CF | 8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | +1.0 | 7 |
| 2 | Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -1.0 | 8 |
| 3 | Eibar | 8 | — | — | — | 21 |
| 4 | CD Castellón | 7 | — | — | — | 19 |
| 5 | Almería | 8 | — | — | — | 18 |
| 6 | Burgos | 8 | — | — | — | 14 |
| 7 | Girona | 7 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 8 | RCD Mallorca | 7 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 9 | Sabadell | 7 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 10 | Real Oviedo | 8 | — | — | — | 11 |
| 11 | Tenerife | 7 | — | — | — | 11 |
| 12 | Leganés | 8 | — | — | — | 11 |
| 13 | Las Palmas | 7 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 14 | Sporting de Gijón | 7 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 15 | Granada CF | 7 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad B | 7 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 17 | Eldense | 8 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 18 | Real Valladolid | 7 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 7 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 20 | Córdoba CF | 7 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 22 | Albacete | 8 | — | — | — | 1 |
