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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Senegal Bélgica ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.85
AI Fair Odds
2.75
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Bélgica win · Bélgica 3–2 Senegal
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 36.4%
- Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"percent_home": "34.6%",
"winner_name": "B\u00e9lgica"
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"away_xg": 1.3685613302642425,
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"edge": 0.1096,
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"away_played": 3,
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{
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{
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "10/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"alert_team": "Senegal",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.0,
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"market_team": "B\u00e9lgica",
"model_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_team": "Senegal",
"show": true,
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"status_key": "caution",
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"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
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{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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"status": "pass"
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{
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{
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{
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"tone": "caution"
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{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
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"data_quality": 20.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
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"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
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"value_split": {
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"tier": "moderate",
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"label": "Model Value",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor"
}
},
"verdict": {
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: B\u00e9lgica 1.33 xG vs Senegal 1.37 \u2192 Senegal 36.4%",
"Market: B\u00e9lgica ~25.4% implied",
"Steam: Senegal \u2193 -7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Senegal with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
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"fair_prob": 34.6,
"label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob": 45.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.05,
"fair_prob": 29.0,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.97,
"fair_prob": 36.4,
"label": "Senegal",
"market_prob": 25.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 56.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 43.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
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"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
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"edge_pp": 10.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.4,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Senegal",
"market_prob_pct": 25.43,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Senegal"
},
"fair_source": "wc_poisson",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
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"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "high",
"fair_confidence_label": "High",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Senegal",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 25.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Senegal, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and B\u00e9lgica remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
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"tier": "not_reliable",
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"recommendation": {
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"label": "Monitor"
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},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: B\u00e9lgica 1.33 xG vs Senegal 1.37 \u2192 Senegal 36.4%",
"Market: B\u00e9lgica ~25.4% implied",
"Steam: Senegal \u2193 -7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Senegal with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.97,
"hero_label": "Senegal",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Senegal odds shortened \u2193 -7.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Senegal.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Senegal.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Senegal.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Senegal."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Senegal more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Senegal (\u2193 -7.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/12) supports the current market view on Senegal."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 10.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.6,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob_pct": 45.53,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.05,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Senegal",
"market_prob_pct": 25.43,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Senegal.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers B\u00e9lgica (25.4%).",
"However, Senegal has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -7.5%, 10/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Senegal, Market \u2192 B\u00e9lgica, Recent sharp money \u2192 Senegal.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.97,
"closing_odds": 3.85,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.97,
"entry_odds": 3.85,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "10/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 35m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Senegal (7.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.85",
"3.70"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 3.33 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 35m",
"pick_team": "Senegal",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
3.85,
3.84,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,9.0 37.3,9.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/12 sportsbooks on Senegal",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Senegal",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/12",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Senegal",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Senegal",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_id": 13,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13.webp",
"away_team_name": "Senegal",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1567308,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "B\u00e9lgica",
"home_team_id": 1,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1.webp",
"home_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Mundial",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-01 20:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Seattle",
"venue_name": "Lumen Field"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2507,
"best_odd": 3.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.0846,
"implied_prob": 0.2543,
"model_prob": 0.3638,
"p_final": 0.2817
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2998,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0216,
"implied_prob": 0.2905,
"model_prob": 0.29,
"p_final": 0.2903
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3764,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1094,
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"model_prob": 0.3462,
"p_final": 0.4142
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0846,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.565,
"draw_prob": 0.29,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3638,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.037
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.0846,
"implied_prob": 0.2543,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3638,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Senegal"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.565,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1567308,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0846,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3638,
"draw": 0.29,
"home": 0.3462
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Senegal",
"home": "B\u00e9lgica"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.030777,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0846,
"implied_prob": 0.2543,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3638,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Senegal",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1567308,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-01T20:02:44.279283+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Copa Mundial — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | México | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sudáfrica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Corea del Sur | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | República Checa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | México | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sudáfrica | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Corea del Sur | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | República Checa | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | México | 3 | 6.6 | 3.8 | +2.8 | 9 |
| 2 | Corea del Sur | 3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | +1.6 | 3 |
| 3 | Sudáfrica | 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | -2.0 | 4 |
| 4 | República Checa | 3 | 2.4 | 5.4 | -3.0 | 1 |
