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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Karpaty Karpaty ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.08
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Karpaty win · Kolos Kovalivka 0–2 Karpaty
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
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"over_25_prob": 0.417,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Karpaty",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Karpaty"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0753,
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"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4456,
"model_prob": 0.3703,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 31.3,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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}
],
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"label": "Away",
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"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": -11.0,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
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"home_played": 4,
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"no_prob": 50.6,
"pick": "No",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 49.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
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{
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"home": 0,
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},
{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
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"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kolos Kovalivka or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kolos Kovalivka or Karpaty",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.35,
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"confidence": "medium",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"total_expected": 2.35,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 7.4,
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"label": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 27.1,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 09:59:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 09:29:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.03
},
{
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"gap_pp": -6.07,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"label": "1-1",
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},
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"top5": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"label": "0-0",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
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}
]
},
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
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"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.4772,
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"p_final": 0.4571
},
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
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"ev": -0.03,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1618,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.2,
"text": "-16.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0785,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.8,
"text": "+7.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 41.7,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0111,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4743,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.506,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.35,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.4743,
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},
"p_final": 0.4854,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0184,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0584,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.385,
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"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.012,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1108,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.1,
"text": "-11.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.012,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 50.6,
"sort_key": 5209.6,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1357,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.6,
"text": "-13.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0325,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3703,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2298,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Karpaty",
"sort_key": 1791.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.55,
"hero_label": "Karpaty",
"market_prob_pct": 44.6,
"market_team": "Karpaty",
"model_prob_pct": 37.0,
"model_team": "Karpaty",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karpaty)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karpaty)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0785,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0785,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karpaty at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karpaty as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karpaty",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karpaty).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3703,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2298,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -8.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5454545454545454,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.55,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -9.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.12,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.23,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.12 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -9%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karpaty).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karpaty)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karpaty)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0785,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0785,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karpaty at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karpaty as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karpaty",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karpaty).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3703,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2298,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -8.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kolos Kovalivka 1.12 xG vs Karpaty 1.23 \u2192 Karpaty 37.0%",
"Market: Karpaty ~44.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Karpaty with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.28,
"fair_prob": 31.62,
"label": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"market_prob": 28.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.27,
"fair_prob": 31.37,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.55,
"fair_prob": 37.01,
"label": "Karpaty",
"market_prob": 44.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.03,
"fair_prob": 41.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.03,
"fair_prob": 58.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.23,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.23,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.01,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Karpaty",
"market_prob_pct": 44.56,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Karpaty\u0027s win probability at 44.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.0%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Karpaty",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Karpaty \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kolos Kovalivka 1.12 xG vs Karpaty 1.23 \u2192 Karpaty 37.0%",
"Market: Karpaty ~44.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Karpaty with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.55,
"hero_label": "Karpaty",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Karpaty. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Karpaty. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Karpaty above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.4 pp (at 37.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.4,
"max_prob_pct": 37.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Karpaty",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Karpaty higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.28,
"edge_pp": 3.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.62,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"market_prob_pct": 28.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.27,
"edge_pp": 4.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.55,
"edge_pp": -7.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Karpaty",
"market_prob_pct": 44.56,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Karpaty (44.6%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.8%, 6/11) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Karpaty \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.08,
"closing_odds": 2.08,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.08,
"entry_odds": 2.08,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "6/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 7m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.43 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.25) \u2014 net 4.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.42",
"3.26",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.43 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 7m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.43"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.42,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/11",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "karpaty",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Karpaty",
"away_team_id": 3617,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3617.webp",
"away_team_name": "Karpaty",
"away_team_public_id": "1cHOa7JSKAJfRM",
"away_team_slug": "karpaty",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1565475,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"home_team_id": 3627,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3627.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kolos Kovalivka",
"home_team_public_id": "1dhb1mNPzRZDYG",
"home_team_slug": "kolos-kovalivka",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kolos-kovalivka",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Ucrania",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Ucrania",
"league_public_id": "5xBRI8YbkQEO0c",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 10:00:00",
"public_id": "4F5G3DujPKr8Ss",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kovalivka",
"venue_name": "Kolos Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3992,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.4456,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4456,
"draw": 0.271,
"home": 0.2834
},
"model_prob": 0.3703,
"p_final": 0.4155
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2809,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0325,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4456,
"draw": 0.271,
"home": 0.2834
},
"model_prob": 0.3134,
"p_final": 0.2829
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2852,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.2834,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4456,
"draw": 0.271,
"home": 0.2834
},
"model_prob": 0.3164,
"p_final": 0.2928
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.1105,
"ev": -0.2299,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.3703
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": 0.0718,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.3134
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": 0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.3164
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.35,
"alpha_yes": 0.385,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0323,
"edge_yes": -0.0323,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.012,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0584,
"ev_yes": -0.1108,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1013,
"implied_no": 0.4737,
"implied_yes": 0.5263,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.35,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.4743,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.4854
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.385,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.5135
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4854,
"p_final_yes": 0.5135,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3343,
"alpha_under": 0.3677,
"best_over_odd": 2.01,
"best_under_odd": 1.85,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.95,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.78,
"edge_over": -0.0603,
"edge_under": 0.0603,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1618,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1087,
"ev_under": 0.0785,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.03,
"implied_over": 0.4773,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4772,
"implied_under": 0.5227,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5228,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3343,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.4772,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"p_final": 0.4571
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3677,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.03,
"implied_prob": 0.5228,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"p_final": 0.5449
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4571,
"p_final_under": 0.5449,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.35,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0785,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0785,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0785,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karpaty)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0785,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0785,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karpaty at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karpaty as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karpaty",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karpaty).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3703,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2298,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -8.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.494,
"draw_prob": 0.3134,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3703,
"over_prob": 0.417,
"total_xg": 2.35,
"under_prob": 0.583,
"xg_diff": 0.11
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.4456,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3703,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Karpaty"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.35,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0111,
"market_prob": 0.4743,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.506,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.35,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.4743,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.4854
},
"p_final": 0.4854,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0584,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.385,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.5135
}
},
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": 0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.4737,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3677,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0221,
"market_prob": 0.5228,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.583,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3343,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.4772,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"p_final": 0.4571
},
"p_final": 0.5449,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.03,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3677,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.03,
"implied_prob": 0.5228,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"p_final": 0.5449
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0603,
"ev": 0.0785,
"implied_prob": 0.5227,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1565475,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0785,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3703,
"draw": 0.3134,
"home": 0.3164
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Karpaty",
"home": "Kolos Kovalivka"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028192,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0785,
"implied_prob": 0.5227,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.583,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4456,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3703,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2298,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565475,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T09:59:26.361816+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Ucrania — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Chornomorets | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 5 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Bukovyna | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Kudrivka | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 2 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 |
