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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Dynamo Kyiv Dynamo Kyiv ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-1, 3-0 3-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Dynamo Kyiv win · Dynamo Kyiv 3–0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "7e2013e17d3342f04c09b027c2380f9a8e1f6c5019d0e0547372d2bdba521e61",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.13,
"away_win_prob": 0.142,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.368,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.632,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.192,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 7.04,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.21,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.5,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.52,
"home_win_prob": 0.666,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.706,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.294
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Dynamo Kyiv",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi"
},
"away_xg": 1.13,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"confidence": 66.6,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Dynamo Kyiv",
"edge": 0.0758,
"edge_gap": 0.4744,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5904,
"model_prob": 0.6662,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 14.2,
"draw": 19.2,
"home": 66.6
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Dynamo Kyiv"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.57
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.57,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Dynamo Kyiv Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.69,
"market_odds": 1.57,
"model_odds": 1.5,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": 3.0,
"value_pct": 4.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 67.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 92.0,
"no_prob": 36.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 63.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 63.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.13,
"home_expected": 2.52,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 6.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Dynamo Kyiv or Draw",
"prob": 85.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Dynamo Kyiv or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"prob": 80.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"prob": 33.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Dynamo Kyiv or Draw",
"pick_prob": 85.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 14.2,
"draw_pct": 19.2,
"home_pct": 66.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Dynamo Kyiv"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.65,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 70.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 70.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.65,
"under_prob": 29.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 4.7,
"implied_prob": 63.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Dynamo Kyiv Win",
"model_prob": 66.7,
"odds": 1.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 19.35,
"draw": 21.61,
"home": 59.04
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 12:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 11:59:24",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.04,
"gap_pp": 7.58,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 66.62
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.61,
"gap_pp": -2.43,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 19.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.35,
"gap_pp": -5.16,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 14.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.77,
"gap_pp": 13.83,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 70.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.23,
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"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.04,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.29,
"early": 4.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.61,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.79,
"early": 4.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.18,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.5,
"ev": -0.2095,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.093,
"model_prob_pct": 9.3,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 6.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.52,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3077,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0412,
"edge_pp": 4.1,
"market_prob": 0.5722,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.706,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3077,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0412,
"ev": -0.0002,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"p_final": 0.6134
},
"p_final": 0.6134,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1508,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0002,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2797,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0374,
"ev": -0.149,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.294,
"p_final": 0.3904
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.172,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.2,
"text": "+17.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.3532,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.3,
"text": "-35.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.172,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 70.6,
"sort_key": 10304.8,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 29.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3329,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"edge": 0.03,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.5418,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.632,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3026,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.0273,
"ev": -0.1339,
"implied_prob": 0.4582,
"model_prob": 0.368,
"p_final": 0.4309
},
"p_final": 0.5718,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0744,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0279,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3329,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": -0.0279,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"model_prob": 0.632,
"p_final": 0.5718
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2272,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.7,
"text": "-22.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1376,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.8,
"text": "+13.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1376,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 36.8,
"sort_key": 10123.84,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 63.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0098,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0098,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6662,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0459,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"sort_key": 1797.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"alert_team": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.56,
"hero_label": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"market_prob_pct": 59.0,
"market_team": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"model_prob_pct": 66.6,
"model_team": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.172,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.172,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 28,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dynamo Kyiv at 66.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dynamo Kyiv as the value side (66.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "28 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0098,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6662,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6369426751592356,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0459,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 86.7,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 87% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.39"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.39
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (87%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.56,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.56,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.13,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 87.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.52,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.52,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.52 \u00b7 Away xG 1.13 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +87%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"steam_team": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.172,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.172,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 28,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dynamo Kyiv at 66.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dynamo Kyiv as the value side (66.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "28 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0098,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6662,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6369426751592356,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0459,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 86.7,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 87% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.39"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.39
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dynamo Kyiv 2.52 xG vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.13 \u2192 Dynamo Kyiv 66.6%",
"Market: Dynamo Kyiv ~59.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi \u2193 -4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Dynamo Kyiv, but sharp money moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.56,
"fair_prob": 66.6,
"label": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"market_prob": 59.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.41,
"fair_prob": 19.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob": 14.2,
"label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"market_prob": 19.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.54,
"fair_prob": 70.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.06,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.54,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.94,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.02,
"fair_prob": 63.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.02,
"fair_prob": 36.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 66.6,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"market_prob_pct": 59.04,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Dynamo Kyiv\u0027s win probability at 66.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 59.0%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.56,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 59.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.6,
"model_prob_pct": 66.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dynamo Kyiv 2.52 xG vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.13 \u2192 Dynamo Kyiv 66.6%",
"Market: Dynamo Kyiv ~59.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi \u2193 -4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Dynamo Kyiv, but sharp money moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.56,
"hero_label": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi odds shortened \u2193 -4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, with odds shortening by 4.8%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Dynamo Kyiv.",
"note": "Buying interest on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi \u2014 odds shortened by 4.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Dynamo Kyiv.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, with odds shortening by 4.8%.",
"Buying interest on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi \u2014 odds shortened by 4.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Dynamo Kyiv.",
"At the same time, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 4.8%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.56,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 47.4 pp (at 66.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 47.4,
"max_prob_pct": 66.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.6,
"lead": "The model rates Dynamo Kyiv considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.56,
"edge_pp": 7.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 66.6,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"market_prob_pct": 59.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.41,
"edge_pp": -2.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.15,
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 14.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"market_prob_pct": 19.35,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi \u2014 odds shortened by 4.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Dynamo Kyiv (59.0%).",
"Epitsentr Dunayivtsi has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.8%, 7/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Dynamo Kyiv, Market \u2192 Dynamo Kyiv, Recent sharp money \u2192 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 63.69,
"closing_odds": 1.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 63.69,
"entry_odds": 1.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -33.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -33.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -29.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -29.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -25.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -25.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (4.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.25",
"5.02",
"4.79"
],
"display": "8.00 \u2192 4.79 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 38m",
"pick_team": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.79"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.25,
4.79,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,9.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.79"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.25,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 7/9 sportsbooks on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_team_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "epitsentr-dunayivtsi",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"away_team_id": 14434,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14434.webp",
"away_team_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"away_team_public_id": "2wTF4eLJSDbXYP",
"away_team_slug": "epitsentr-dunayivtsi",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1565474,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"home_team_id": 572,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/572.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"home_team_public_id": "4Gx1icPhngWZ3T",
"home_team_slug": "dynamo-kyiv",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dynamo-kyiv",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Ucrania",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Ucrania",
"league_public_id": "5xBRI8YbkQEO0c",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 12:30:00",
"public_id": "2JyOka2FlvtPqx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kyiv",
"venue_name": "Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1845,
"best_odd": 4.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.1935,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1935,
"draw": 0.2161,
"home": 0.5904
},
"model_prob": 0.142,
"p_final": 0.184
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1927,
"best_odd": 4.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0931,
"implied_prob": 0.2161,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1935,
"draw": 0.2161,
"home": 0.5904
},
"model_prob": 0.1918,
"p_final": 0.2114
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5318,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0403,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.5904,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1935,
"draw": 0.2161,
"home": 0.5904
},
"model_prob": 0.6662,
"p_final": 0.6307
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.79,
"edge": -0.0668,
"ev": -0.32,
"implied_prob": 0.2088,
"model_prob": 0.142
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.29,
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1771,
"implied_prob": 0.2331,
"model_prob": 0.1918
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.6369,
"model_prob": 0.6662
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3026,
"alpha_yes": 0.3329,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0902,
"edge_yes": 0.0902,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1339,
"ev_yes": 0.1376,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0279,
"implied_no": 0.4582,
"implied_yes": 0.5418,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3026,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.0273,
"ev": -0.1339,
"implied_prob": 0.4582,
"model_prob": 0.368,
"p_final": 0.4309
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3329,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": -0.0279,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"model_prob": 0.632,
"p_final": 0.5718
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4309,
"p_final_yes": 0.5718,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3077,
"alpha_under": 0.2797,
"best_over_odd": 1.66,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.18,
"edge_over": 0.1354,
"edge_under": -0.1354,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.172,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0002,
"ev_under": -0.3532,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.149,
"implied_over": 0.5706,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5722,
"implied_under": 0.4294,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4278,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3077,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0412,
"ev": -0.0002,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"p_final": 0.6134
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2797,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0374,
"ev": -0.149,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.294,
"p_final": 0.3904
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6134,
"p_final_under": 0.3904,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.65,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.172,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.172,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.172,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.172,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.172,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 28,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dynamo Kyiv at 66.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dynamo Kyiv as the value side (66.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dynamo Kyiv",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "28 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, but the model still strongly favours Dynamo Kyiv.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0098,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6662,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6369426751592356,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0459,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 86.7,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 87% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.39"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.39
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.632,
"draw_prob": 0.1918,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6662,
"over_prob": 0.706,
"total_xg": 3.65,
"under_prob": 0.294,
"xg_diff": 1.39
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0403,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.5904,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6662,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Dynamo Kyiv"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3329,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"edge": 0.03,
"market_prob": 0.5418,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.0273,
"ev": -0.1339,
"implied_prob": 0.4582,
"model_prob": 0.368,
"p_final": 0.4309
},
"p_final": 0.5718,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0279,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.03,
"ev": -0.0279,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0902,
"ev": 0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"model_prob": 0.632,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3077,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0412,
"market_prob": 0.5722,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.706,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0412,
"ev": -0.0002,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
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"p_final": 0.6134
},
"p_final": 0.6134,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0002,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2797,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0374,
"ev": -0.149,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.294,
"p_final": 0.3904
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1354,
"ev": 0.172,
"implied_prob": 0.5706,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565474,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.172,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.142,
"draw": 0.1918,
"home": 0.6662
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.632,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.632,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
"home": "Dynamo Kyiv"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.121432,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.172,
"implied_prob": 0.5706,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.706,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0098,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6662,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6369426751592356,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0459,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565474,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T12:29:07.055480+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Ucrania — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Chornomorets | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 5 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Bukovyna | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Kudrivka | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 2 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 |
