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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Shakhtar Donetsk win · Shakhtar Donetsk 5–1 Kudrivka
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "0d5cb7ddece9994c9083b69c0c7cb5be5061e8189680337bf6a220dc391e7c23",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.84,
"away_win_prob": 0.1149,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.481,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.519,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2052,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 8.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.87,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.6799,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.595,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.406
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Shakhtar Donetsk or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Shakhtar Donetsk",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"away_xg": 0.84,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"confidence": 68.0,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Shakhtar Donetsk",
"edge": 0.6282,
"edge_gap": 0.4747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.0517,
"model_prob": 0.6799,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 11.5,
"draw": 20.5,
"home": 68.0
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 18.0
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 18.0,
"bookmaker_affi": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"display_market": "Shakhtar Donetsk Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 19.35,
"market_odds": 18.0,
"model_odds": 1.47,
"overround": 7.5,
"prob_edge": 62.5,
"value_pct": 1124.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 56.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 89.4,
"no_prob": 48.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 51.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 51.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.84,
"home_expected": 2.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw",
"prob": 88.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Shakhtar Donetsk or Kudrivka",
"prob": 79.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Kudrivka",
"prob": 32.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw",
"pick_prob": 88.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 11.5,
"draw_pct": 20.5,
"home_pct": 68.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.08,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 59.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.08,
"under_prob": 40.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"edge": 1124.5,
"implied_prob": 5.6,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Shakhtar Donetsk Win",
"model_prob": 68.0,
"odds": 18.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.5
}
},
"home_xg": 2.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "model_conflict",
"authority_note": "Large statistical disagreement between the AI model and market pricing \u2014 observation only, not a Primary bet.",
"consensus_odds": 18.0,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Extreme",
"disagreement_level": "extreme",
"ev": 1.0612,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 106.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.0517,
"is_extreme_disagreement": true,
"max_ev": 1.0612,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 106.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"model_prob": 0.6799,
"raw_edge_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 62.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 11.2382,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1123.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"sort_key": 11105.08,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 59.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 40.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 48.1,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 51.9
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 11.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"model_prob_pct": 68.0,
"model_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 62.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 62.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010612,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.112381,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "MODEL_CONFLICT",
"execution_confidence": 64,
"extreme_disagreement": true,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Shakhtar Donetsk at 68.0% vs market 5.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Shakhtar Donetsk as the stronger side (68.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "model_market_conflict",
"icon": "\u26a0",
"label": "Observation Only",
"market_signal": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"model_conflict_detail": {
"causes": [
"Missing information",
"Lineup uncertainty",
"Market efficiency",
"Model calibration error"
],
"gap_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"market_prob_pct": 5.2,
"model_prob_adjusted_pct": 62.0,
"model_prob_pct": 68.0,
"model_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"reason": "Extreme disagreement between model and market pricing.",
"status": "Observation Only",
"xg_anomaly_penalty_pct": 6.0,
"xg_calibration_note": "Model output exceeds league baseline \u2014 calibration review recommended."
},
"model_lean": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Shakhtar Donetsk \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.64 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565440 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.64 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +1.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme model\u2013market disagreement",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": false,
"value": "yes"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Outlier EV only \u2014 not scored for Primary"
],
"subline": "Large statistical disagreement between the AI model and market pricing \u2014 observation only, not a Primary bet.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "conflict",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.010612,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 18.0,
"disagreement_label": "Extreme",
"disagreement_level": "extreme",
"implied_prob": 0.0517,
"is_extreme_disagreement": true,
"model_prob": 0.6799,
"raw_edge_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 62.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.05555555555555555,
"raw_signal_ev": 11.2382,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1123.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 65.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 66%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "model_conflict",
"books_breadth_display": "1/1",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2717",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market strongly disagrees on price",
"status": "fail"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (66%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.84,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 66.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.24,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.24,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.24 \u00b7 Away xG 0.84 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +66%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"label": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 62.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 62.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010612,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.112381,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "MODEL_CONFLICT",
"execution_confidence": 64,
"extreme_disagreement": true,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Shakhtar Donetsk at 68.0% vs market 5.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Shakhtar Donetsk as the stronger side (68.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "model_market_conflict",
"icon": "\u26a0",
"label": "Observation Only",
"market_signal": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"model_conflict_detail": {
"causes": [
"Missing information",
"Lineup uncertainty",
"Market efficiency",
"Model calibration error"
],
"gap_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"market_prob_pct": 5.2,
"model_prob_adjusted_pct": 62.0,
"model_prob_pct": 68.0,
"model_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"reason": "Extreme disagreement between model and market pricing.",
"status": "Observation Only",
"xg_anomaly_penalty_pct": 6.0,
"xg_calibration_note": "Model output exceeds league baseline \u2014 calibration review recommended."
},
"model_lean": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Shakhtar Donetsk \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.64 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565440 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.64 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +1.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme model\u2013market disagreement",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": false,
"value": "yes"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Outlier EV only \u2014 not scored for Primary"
],
"subline": "Large statistical disagreement between the AI model and market pricing \u2014 observation only, not a Primary bet.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "conflict",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.010612,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 18.0,
"disagreement_label": "Extreme",
"disagreement_level": "extreme",
"implied_prob": 0.0517,
"is_extreme_disagreement": true,
"model_prob": 0.6799,
"raw_edge_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 62.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.05555555555555555,
"raw_signal_ev": 11.2382,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1123.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 65.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 66%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u26a0",
"label": "Observation Only",
"subline": "Large statistical disagreement between the AI model and market pricing \u2014 observation only, not a Primary bet.",
"tier": "conflict"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.24 xG vs Kudrivka 0.84 \u2192 Shakhtar Donetsk 68.0%",
"Market Steam: Shakhtar Donetsk +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Shakhtar Donetsk projects stronger on expected goals (+1.40 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 67.99,
"label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 20.52,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 11.49,
"label": "Kudrivka",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 59.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 40.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 5.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 62.8,
"model_prob_pct": 68.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"label": "Very low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_very_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"label": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.24 xG vs Kudrivka 0.84 \u2192 Shakhtar Donetsk 68.0%",
"Market Steam: Shakhtar Donetsk +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Shakhtar Donetsk projects stronger on expected goals (+1.40 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 47.5 pp (at 68.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 47.5,
"max_prob_pct": 68.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 67.99,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.52,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 11.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kudrivka",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Shakhtar Donetsk (68.0%).",
"Shakhtar Donetsk leads both the model grid and market pricing directionally."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 5.56,
"entry_odds": 18.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/1",
"current_odds": 18.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 18.0,
"pick_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_team_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kudrivka",
"away_team_id": 21953,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21953.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kudrivka",
"away_team_slug": "kudrivka",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1565440,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"home_team_id": 550,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/550.webp",
"home_team_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"home_team_slug": "shakhtar-donetsk",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Ucrania",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Ucrania",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-03 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Lviv",
"venue_name": "Arena Lviv"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 1.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.2126,
"ev": -0.3097,
"implied_prob": 0.8234,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.8234,
"draw": 0.1249,
"home": 0.0517
},
"model_prob": 0.1149,
"p_final": 0.6109
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1759,
"best_odd": 7.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": 0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.1249,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.8234,
"draw": 0.1249,
"home": 0.0517
},
"model_prob": 0.2052,
"p_final": 0.139
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1,
"best_odd": 18.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0628,
"ev": 1.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.0517,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.8234,
"draw": 0.1249,
"home": 0.0517
},
"model_prob": 0.6799,
"p_final": 0.1145
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.13,
"edge": -0.7701,
"ev": -0.8702,
"implied_prob": 0.885,
"model_prob": 0.1149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 7.45,
"edge": 0.071,
"ev": 0.5289,
"implied_prob": 0.1342,
"model_prob": 0.2052
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 18.0,
"edge": 0.6243,
"ev": 11.2381,
"implied_prob": 0.0556,
"model_prob": 0.6799
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_observation_only",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_model_conflict",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.08,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.0612,
"best_outlier_ev": 11.2381,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.0612,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Outlier EV only \u2014 not scored for Primary"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Outlier EV only \u2014 not scored for Primary"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.7
},
"decision_type": "MODEL_CONFLICT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "model_conflict",
"final_decision": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 62.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010612,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.112381,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "MODEL_CONFLICT",
"execution_confidence": 64,
"extreme_disagreement": true,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Shakhtar Donetsk at 68.0% vs market 5.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Shakhtar Donetsk as the stronger side (68.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "model_market_conflict",
"icon": "\u26a0",
"label": "Observation Only",
"market_signal": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"model_conflict_detail": {
"causes": [
"Missing information",
"Lineup uncertainty",
"Market efficiency",
"Model calibration error"
],
"gap_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 62.8,
"market_prob_pct": 5.2,
"model_prob_adjusted_pct": 62.0,
"model_prob_pct": 68.0,
"model_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"reason": "Extreme disagreement between model and market pricing.",
"status": "Observation Only",
"xg_anomaly_penalty_pct": 6.0,
"xg_calibration_note": "Model output exceeds league baseline \u2014 calibration review recommended."
},
"model_lean": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Shakhtar Donetsk \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.64 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1565440 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.64 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +1.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme model\u2013market disagreement",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": false,
"value": "yes"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Outlier EV only \u2014 not scored for Primary"
],
"subline": "Large statistical disagreement between the AI model and market pricing \u2014 observation only, not a Primary bet.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "conflict",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.010612,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 18.0,
"disagreement_label": "Extreme",
"disagreement_level": "extreme",
"implied_prob": 0.0517,
"is_extreme_disagreement": true,
"model_prob": 0.6799,
"raw_edge_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 62.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.05555555555555555,
"raw_signal_ev": 11.2382,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1123.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 65.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 66%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.519,
"draw_prob": 0.2052,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6799,
"over_prob": 0.595,
"total_xg": 3.08,
"under_prob": 0.406,
"xg_diff": 1.4
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "model_market_conflict",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.1249,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2052,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 18.0,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0628,
"ev": 1.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.0517,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6799,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.519,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565440,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.0612,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1149,
"draw": 0.2052,
"home": 0.6799
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kudrivka",
"home": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.865812,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.0517,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6799,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.010612,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 18.0,
"disagreement_label": "Extreme",
"disagreement_level": "extreme",
"implied_prob": 0.0517,
"is_extreme_disagreement": true,
"model_prob": 0.6799,
"raw_edge_display": "+62.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 62.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.05555555555555555,
"raw_signal_ev": 11.2382,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1123.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565440,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-30T02:49:33.922189+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Ucrania — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | LNZ Cherkasy | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Bukovyna | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Kryvbas KR | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Chornomorets | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Obolon'-Brovar | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Kolos Kovalivka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 6 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 |
| 3 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 5 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Kryvbas KR | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 5 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | LNZ Cherkasy | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 |
| 13 | Livyi Bereh | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 5 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 2 |
| 16 | Obolon'-Brovar | 6 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 3 |
