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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Australia Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.76
AI Fair Odds
2.33
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Australia 1–1 Egipto
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 42.9%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.2.1",
"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.2337,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.6023,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.192,
"away_win_prob": 0.28459652287311293,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1639,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.442,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.558,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.28586469733369463,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2337,
"fair_odds_away": 3.51,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 6.1,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.5,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.28,
"fair_odds_home": 2.33,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.66,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.508,
"home_win_prob": 0.42953877979319244,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.6023,
"model_name": "wc_elo_poisson",
"over_25_prob": 0.5064,
"prediction_confidence": "medium",
"source": "worldcup-poisson",
"under_25_prob": 0.4936
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Australia or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Australia",
"percent_away": "28.5%",
"percent_draw": "28.6%",
"percent_home": "43.0%",
"winner_name": "Australia"
},
"away_xg": 1.1921009964169642,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Australia",
"confidence": 42.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Australia",
"edge": 0.1691,
"edge_gap": 0.1435,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2602,
"model_prob": 0.4293,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 28.6,
"home": 42.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.76
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.84,
"market_odds": 3.76,
"model_odds": 2.33,
"overround": 2.2,
"prob_edge": 16.3,
"value_pct": 61.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 77.9,
"no_prob": 44.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 55.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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{
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"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.0
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Australia or Draw",
"prob": 71.6
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Australia or Egipto",
"prob": 71.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Egipto",
"prob": 57.1
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],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Australia or Draw",
"pick_prob": 71.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 28.5,
"draw_pct": 28.6,
"home_pct": 43.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Australia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.7,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.7,
"under_prob": 49.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 61.7,
"implied_prob": 26.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Australia Win",
"model_prob": 43.0,
"odds": 3.76
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Egipto",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.25,
"draw": 33.73,
"home": 26.02
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Australia",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"gap_pp": 16.98,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 43.0
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.73,
"gap_pp": -5.13,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.6
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.25,
"gap_pp": -11.75,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.91,
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"kind": "ou_o",
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{
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"movement": [
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{
"closing": 2.9,
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{
"closing": 2.43,
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"implied_closing_pct": 40.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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{
"closing": 2.76,
"early": 2.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
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{
"closing": 1.48,
"early": 1.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
}
},
"home_xg": 1.507899003583036,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1206,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.1,
"text": "+12.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2602,
"max_ev": 0.1206,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 12.1,
"text": "+12.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4293,
"side_label": "Australia",
"sort_key": 10258.54,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 44.2,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 55.8
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 49.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"alert_team": "Australia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.98,
"hero_label": "Australia",
"market_prob_pct": 26.0,
"market_team": "Egipto",
"model_prob_pct": 43.0,
"model_team": "Australia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"evidence": {
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market partially disagrees",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.5,
"data_quality": 20.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor"
}
},
"verdict": {
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Australia 1.51 xG vs Egipto 1.19 \u2192 Australia 43.0%",
"Market: Egipto ~26.0% implied",
"Steam: Australia \u2191 +7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Australia, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 16.98,
"fair_prob": 43.0,
"label": "Australia",
"market_prob": 26.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.13,
"fair_prob": 28.6,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.75,
"fair_prob": 28.5,
"label": "Egipto",
"market_prob": 40.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 55.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 44.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 16.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.0,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Australia",
"market_prob_pct": 26.02,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Australia"
},
"fair_source": "wc_poisson",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Australia\u0027s win probability at 43.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.0%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 16.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "high",
"fair_confidence_label": "High",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Australia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 26.0,
"model_prob_pct": 43.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Australia, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Draw remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Australia 1.51 xG vs Egipto 1.19 \u2192 Australia 43.0%",
"Market: Egipto ~26.0% implied",
"Steam: Australia \u2191 +7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Australia, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.98,
"hero_label": "Australia",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Australia odds lengthened \u2191 +7.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Australia.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Australia.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Australia.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Australia."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Australia more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Australia (\u2191 +7.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on Australia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.4 pp (at 43.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.4,
"max_prob_pct": 43.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Australia",
"largest_gap_pp": 17.0,
"lead": "The model rates Australia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 16.98,
"edge_pp": 16.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.0,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Australia",
"market_prob_pct": 26.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.13,
"edge_pp": -5.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.6,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.73,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.75,
"edge_pp": -11.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Egipto",
"market_prob_pct": 40.25,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Australia.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Egipto (26.0%).",
"However, Australia has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +7.7%, 11/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Australia, Market \u2192 Egipto, Recent sharp money \u2192 Australia.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.6,
"closing_odds": 3.76,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.6,
"entry_odds": 3.76,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
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"odds_delta_pct": 12.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
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"odds_delta_pct": 12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
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"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
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"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
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"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 32m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Australia (7.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.76",
"3.50",
"3.25"
],
"display": "3.75 \u2192 3.08 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 32m",
"pick_team": "Australia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
3.76,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 11/13 sportsbooks on Australia",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Australia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Australia",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Australia",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": 0.41,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_id": 32,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/32.webp",
"away_team_name": "Egipto",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1565178,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": 0.28,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_id": 20,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20.webp",
"home_team_name": "Australia",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Mundial",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-03 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Dallas",
"venue_name": "AT\u0026T Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3706,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0436,
"ev": -0.1277,
"implied_prob": 0.4025,
"model_prob": 0.285,
"p_final": 0.359
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4152,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.0839,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.2858,
"p_final": 0.3159
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2239,
"best_odd": 3.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.2602,
"model_prob": 0.4293,
"p_final": 0.298
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1206,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.558,
"draw_prob": 0.2858,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4293,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.316
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.2602,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4293,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Australia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.558,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1565178,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1206,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.4293
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Egipto",
"home": "Australia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.051774,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.2602,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4293,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Australia",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565178,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-03T19:55:54.795444+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Copa Mundial — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | México | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sudáfrica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Corea del Sur | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | República Checa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | México | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sudáfrica | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Corea del Sur | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | República Checa | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | México | 3 | 6.6 | 3.8 | +2.8 | 9 |
| 2 | Corea del Sur | 3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | +1.6 | 3 |
| 3 | Sudáfrica | 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | -2.0 | 4 |
| 4 | República Checa | 3 | 2.4 | 5.4 | -3.0 | 1 |
