Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 České Budějovice Sub-19 České Budějovice Sub-19 ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
České Budějovice Sub-19 win · České Budějovice Sub-19 4–1 Pardubice Sub-19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "edb324b8c31304694737700171d20437ed84bc9bd9117b366550e2853ec6ecf8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1295,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4904,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.8
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.8,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.04,
"market_odds": 1.8,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 13.3,
"prob_edge": -19.5,
"value_pct": -35.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 or Pardubice Sub-19",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Pardubice Sub-19",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 or Pardubice Sub-19",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 15.7,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.91
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.38,
"draw": 22.58,
"home": 49.04
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 08:59:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 08:30:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.04,
"gap_pp": -12.95,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.58,
"gap_pp": 7.09,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.38,
"gap_pp": 5.86,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.04,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.91,
"early": 3.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.58,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.11,
"early": 3.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.38,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.4,
"ev": 0.375,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 11.0,
"market_prob": 0.0909,
"market_prob_pct": 9.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.2979,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1658,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.7021,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6656
},
"p_final": 0.3155,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5747,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3155
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3589,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.9,
"text": "-35.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.6835,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 68.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.6835,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10765.15,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0206,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3084,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.3084,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.329
},
"p_final": 0.329,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3468,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0262,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6916,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6633
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4242,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 42.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2751,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.5,
"text": "-27.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4242,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10381.78,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2299,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.0,
"text": "-23.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0429,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.3,
"text": "-4.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"sort_key": 1789.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"alert_team": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.93,
"hero_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"market_team": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2299,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.93,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"steam_team": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2299,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 1.32 xG vs Pardubice Sub-19 1.28 \u2192 \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 36.1%",
"Market: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 ~49.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Pardubice Sub-19 \u2193 -10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19, but sharp money moved toward Pardubice Sub-19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.93,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"market_prob": 49.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.07,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.86,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"market_prob": 28.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 70.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 29.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.9,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 69.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.9,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 30.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.04,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pardubice Sub-19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19\u0027s win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 1.32 xG vs Pardubice Sub-19 1.28 \u2192 \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 36.1%",
"Market: \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 ~49.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Pardubice Sub-19 \u2193 -10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19, but sharp money moved toward Pardubice Sub-19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.93,
"hero_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Pardubice Sub-19 odds shortened \u2193 -10.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Pardubice Sub-19, with odds shortening by 10.8%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Pardubice Sub-19 \u2014 odds shortened by 10.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Pardubice Sub-19, with odds shortening by 10.8%.",
"Buying interest on Pardubice Sub-19 \u2014 odds shortened by 10.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Pardubice Sub-19 has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 10.8%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.93,
"edge_pp": -12.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.07,
"edge_pp": 7.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.86,
"edge_pp": 5.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 28.38,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Pardubice Sub-19 \u2014 odds shortened by 10.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 (49.0%).",
"However, Pardubice Sub-19 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.8%, 4/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19, Market \u2192 \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19, Recent sharp money \u2192 Pardubice Sub-19.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.56,
"closing_odds": 1.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.56,
"entry_odds": 1.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Pardubice Sub-19 (10.8%, 4/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.25",
"3.08",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.75 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 17m",
"pick_team": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
3.11,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,7.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward Pardubice Sub-19 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pardubice-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"away_team_id": 14836,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14836.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"away_team_public_id": "2ZcuttHnqG2gt1",
"away_team_slug": "pardubice-u19",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1565098,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"home_team_id": 14841,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14841.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"home_team_public_id": "49ZPwhuZdiKOPP",
"home_team_slug": "ceske-budejovice-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ceske-budejovice-u19",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "Primera Liga Sub-19 de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_id": 668,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/668.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Liga Sub-19 de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_public_id": "52sRLwO4QI5y39",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 09:00:00",
"public_id": "4IfZ1KwdKldJhT",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2736,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0674,
"implied_prob": 0.2838,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2838,
"draw": 0.2258,
"home": 0.4904
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2999
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2681,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2838,
"draw": 0.2258,
"home": 0.4904
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2448
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4835,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0626,
"ev": -0.2299,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2838,
"draw": 0.2258,
"home": 0.4904
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4278
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": 0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.0409,
"ev": 0.16,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.1946,
"ev": -0.3503,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1404,
"alpha_yes": 0.1931,
"best_no_odd": 3.13,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.149,
"edge_yes": -0.149,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4242,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0262,
"ev_yes": -0.2751,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1245,
"implied_no": 0.306,
"implied_yes": 0.694,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.3084,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.329
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6916,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6633
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.329,
"p_final_yes": 0.6633,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1658,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.33,
"best_under_odd": 3.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.29,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.04,
"edge_over": -0.2227,
"edge_under": 0.2227,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3589,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1414,
"ev_under": 0.6835,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0408,
"implied_over": 0.7047,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7021,
"implied_under": 0.2953,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2979,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1658,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.7021,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6656
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3155
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6656,
"p_final_under": 0.3155,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pardubice Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours \u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2299,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0626,
"ev": -0.2299,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.3084,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.3084,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.329
},
"p_final": 0.329,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0262,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6916,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6633
}
},
"edge": 0.149,
"ev": 0.4242,
"implied_prob": 0.306,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"market_prob": 0.2979,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1658,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.7021,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6656
},
"p_final": 0.3155,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3155
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2227,
"ev": 0.6835,
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1565098,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6835,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4242,
"implied_prob": 0.306,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4242,
"implied_prob": 0.306,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pardubice Sub-19",
"home": "\u010cesk\u00e9 Bud\u011bjovice Sub-19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.247837,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6835,
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2299,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3504,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1565098,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T08:59:17.226428+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para České Budějovice Sub-19 & Pardubice Sub-19!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
República Checa. Primera Liga Sub-19 de República Checa Predicciones
