Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Strabane Athletic Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.69
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Dundela 1–1 Strabane Athletic
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a6f70ec1d1295f44d4a7ff0529d7e255ef86585e5a0ac54c55f49807d508e26e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.3946,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.53,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Dundela and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Dundela"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Strabane Athletic",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1692,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2258,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.93
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.93,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Strabane Athletic Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.43,
"market_odds": 3.93,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": 14.1,
"value_pct": 55.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 70.2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Dundela or Draw",
"prob": 60.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Dundela or Strabane Athletic",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Strabane Athletic",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Dundela or Strabane Athletic",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Strabane Athletic"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 55.3,
"implied_prob": 25.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Strabane Athletic Win",
"model_prob": 39.5,
"odds": 3.93
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Strabane Athletic",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.58,
"draw": 24.92,
"home": 52.5
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:45:19",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:15:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Dundela",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.5,
"gap_pp": -21.47,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.92,
"gap_pp": 4.55,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.58,
"gap_pp": 16.92,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.53,
"gap_pp": -8.33,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.47,
"gap_pp": 8.33,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.5,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.56,
"early": 3.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.92,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.93,
"early": 3.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.58,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.63,
"early": 1.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.53,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.47,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.9,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.437,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5454
},
"p_final": 0.453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0878,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.453
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1396,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10275.64,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 3.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0361,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0361,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.552,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Strabane Athletic",
"sort_key": 10032.49,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4313,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0783,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4368
},
"p_final": 0.4368,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0357,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0783,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2379,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5626
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0174,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0932,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0174,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 1795.65,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Strabane Athletic",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 21.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.47,
"hero_label": "Dundela",
"market_prob_pct": 22.6,
"market_team": "Dundela",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Strabane Athletic",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5521,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Strabane Athletic at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Strabane Athletic as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Strabane Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Strabane Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.00 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1564862 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.00 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0361,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2544529262086514,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.552,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 52,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.47,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "Strabane Athletic",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5521,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Strabane Athletic at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Strabane Athletic as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Strabane Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Strabane Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.00 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1564862 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.00 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0361,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2544529262086514,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.552,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dundela 1.21 xG vs Strabane Athletic 1.39 \u2192 Strabane Athletic 39.5%",
"Market: Dundela ~22.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Strabane Athletic odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Strabane Athletic, but the market has moved away from Strabane Athletic.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -21.47,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Dundela",
"market_prob": 52.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.59,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.88,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Strabane Athletic",
"market_prob": 22.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.28,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.28,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.49,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.49,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -21.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Dundela",
"market_prob_pct": 52.5,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Strabane Athletic"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Dundela\u0027s win probability at 52.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 21.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 21.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Strabane Athletic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 52,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dundela 1.21 xG vs Strabane Athletic 1.39 \u2192 Strabane Athletic 39.5%",
"Market: Dundela ~22.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Strabane Athletic odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Strabane Athletic, but the market has moved away from Strabane Athletic.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.47,
"hero_label": "Dundela",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Strabane Athletic odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Dundela",
"largest_gap_pp": -21.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Dundela higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 21.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -21.47,
"edge_pp": -21.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Dundela",
"market_prob_pct": 52.5,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.59,
"edge_pp": 4.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.92,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 16.88,
"edge_pp": 16.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Strabane Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 22.58,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Dundela (22.6%).",
"However, Strabane Athletic has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.1%, 5/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Strabane Athletic, Market \u2192 Dundela, while Strabane Athletic odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.17,
"closing_odds": 1.69,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.17,
"entry_odds": 1.69,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Strabane Athletic (11.1%, 5/7) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.80",
"3.60"
],
"display": "4.30 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Strabane Athletic",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.93,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.1 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/7 sportsbooks on Strabane Athletic",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Strabane Athletic",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Market moved away from Strabane Athletic while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Strabane Athletic",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Strabane Athletic",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Strabane Athletic",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 21.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "strabane-athletic",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Strabane Athletic",
"away_team_id": 22541,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22541.webp",
"away_team_name": "Strabane Athletic",
"away_team_public_id": "5EoaQzbyFHJ3Xn",
"away_team_slug": "strabane-athletic",
"country_code": "GB-NIR",
"country_display_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-nir.svg",
"country_id": 119,
"country_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1564862,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Dundela",
"home_team_id": 5342,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5342.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dundela",
"home_team_public_id": "23LztDAOUaZ8Xf",
"home_team_slug": "dundela",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dundela",
"league_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Championship de Irlanda del Norte",
"league_id": 407,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/407.webp",
"league_name": "Championship de Irlanda del Norte",
"league_public_id": "1qJ6WPidOzchX0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 18:45:00",
"public_id": "1CeZ9vLkNUAR7w",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2239,
"best_odd": 3.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.0361,
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2258,
"draw": 0.2492,
"home": 0.525
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.2636
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2795,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0674,
"implied_prob": 0.2492,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2258,
"draw": 0.2492,
"home": 0.525
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.262
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4068,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0873,
"ev": -0.2603,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2258,
"draw": 0.2492,
"home": 0.525
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.4377
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.93,
"edge": 0.1405,
"ev": 0.5521,
"implied_prob": 0.2545,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": 0.0493,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.2814,
"ev": -0.4756,
"implied_prob": 0.5917,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2163,
"alpha_yes": 0.2379,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0249,
"edge_yes": -0.0249,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0174,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0783,
"ev_yes": -0.0932,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0998,
"implied_no": 0.4321,
"implied_yes": 0.5679,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0783,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4368
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2379,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5626
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4368,
"p_final_yes": 0.5626,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2174,
"alpha_under": 0.1977,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0828,
"edge_under": 0.0828,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.111,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0487,
"implied_over": 0.5648,
"implied_over_mf": 0.563,
"implied_under": 0.4352,
"implied_under_mf": 0.437,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5454
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.453
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5454,
"p_final_under": 0.453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5521,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5521,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Strabane Athletic at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Strabane Athletic as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Strabane Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Strabane Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.00 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1564862 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.00 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Strabane Athletic, but the model still strongly favours Strabane Athletic.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0361,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2544529262086514,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.552,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.93,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.0361,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Strabane Athletic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"market_prob": 0.4313,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0783,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4368
},
"p_final": 0.4368,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0783,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2379,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5626
}
},
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": -0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"market_prob": 0.437,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5454
},
"p_final": 0.453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.453
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0828,
"ev": 0.1396,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4352,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1564862,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Strabane Athletic",
"home": "Dundela"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4352,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0361,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2544529262086514,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.552,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1564862,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T18:45:21.846755+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Dundela & Strabane Athletic!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Championship de Irlanda del Norte — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glenavon FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Annagh United | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Queen's University | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | H&W Welders | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Newry City AFC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Ballinamallard United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Institute FC | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Ards | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Loughgall | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Dundela | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Moyola Park | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glenavon FC | 9 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 17 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 8 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 | Queen's University | 8 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 16 |
| 4 | Annagh United | 8 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | H&W Welders | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Warrenpoint Town | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Dundela | 8 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Ballinamallard United | 8 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Newry City AFC | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Institute FC | 8 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Loughgall | 9 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | Ards | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Moyola Park | 8 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 8 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 5 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 9 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 |
