Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Bristol City Bristol City ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Bristol City win · Bristol City 1–0 Watford
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "64240f5953647aa21bb301d0001d3c0d2bc78811f25701b8cb12b3e4ad756ae1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.2785,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2965,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4251,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.09,
"away_win_prob": 0.2785,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2785,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.513,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.487,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2965,
"fair_odds_away": 3.59,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.59,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.37,
"fair_odds_home": 2.35,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.35,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.4251,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4251,
"over_25_prob": 0.409,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.591
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Bristol City or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Bristol City"
},
"away_xg": 1.09,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bristol City",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1226,
"edge_gap": 0.1287,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5478,
"model_prob": 0.4252,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 27.8,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 42.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.76
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.76,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bristol City Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.83,
"market_odds": 1.76,
"model_odds": 2.35,
"overround": 3.7,
"prob_edge": -14.3,
"value_pct": -25.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 66.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 70.8,
"no_prob": 51.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 48.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.09,
"home_expected": 1.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bristol City or Draw",
"prob": 72.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bristol City or Watford",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Watford",
"prob": 57.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Bristol City or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 42.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bristol City"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.32,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 40.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.32,
"under_prob": 59.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 28.9,
"implied_prob": 21.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Watford Win",
"model_prob": 27.9,
"odds": 4.62
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Watford",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 20.87,
"draw": 24.35,
"home": 54.78
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:59:29",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:30:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bristol City",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.78,
"gap_pp": -12.26,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 42.52
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.35,
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.87,
"gap_pp": 6.96,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 27.83
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.1,
"gap_pp": -13.2,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 40.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.9,
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 59.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.76,
"early": 1.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.96,
"early": 3.96,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.35,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.62,
"early": 4.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.87,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.79,
"early": 1.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.1,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 15.0,
"edge": 4.0,
"ev": 60.7,
"label": "0-1",
"probability": 10.7
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0032,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.6,
"market_prob": 0.1316,
"market_prob_pct": 13.2,
"model_prob": 0.132,
"model_prob_pct": 13.2,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0593,
"edge_pp": 5.9,
"market_prob": 0.4562,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4838,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0652,
"ev": -0.1769,
"implied_prob": 0.5438,
"model_prob": 0.409,
"p_final": 0.4786
},
"p_final": 0.5155,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2115,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0568,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0593,
"ev": 0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.4562,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"p_final": 0.5155
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2556,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.6,
"text": "-25.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2647,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2647,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 40.9,
"sort_key": 10388.23,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 59.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4767,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0293,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"market_prob": 0.4516,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.513,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4767,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"model_prob": 0.513,
"p_final": 0.4809
},
"p_final": 0.4809,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0465,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.019,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5243,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1328,
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"model_prob": 0.487,
"p_final": 0.5162
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1029,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.3,
"text": "+10.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1477,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.8,
"text": "-14.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1029,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 51.3,
"sort_key": 10092.61,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.7
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1415,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.1,
"text": "-14.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0221,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4252,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2516,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bristol City",
"sort_key": 5217.68,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"alert_team": "Watford",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.27,
"hero_label": "Bristol City",
"market_prob_pct": 54.8,
"market_team": "Bristol City",
"model_prob_pct": 42.5,
"model_team": "Bristol City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bristol City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bristol City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2647,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2859,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bristol City at 42.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bristol City as the value side (42.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bristol City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bristol City).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1415,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4252,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2516,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -8.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.27,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.09,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -9.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.23,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.09 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -9%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"steam_team": "Watford",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bristol City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bristol City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2647,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2859,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bristol City at 42.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bristol City as the value side (42.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bristol City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bristol City).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1415,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4252,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2516,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -8.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bristol City 1.23 xG vs Watford 1.09 \u2192 Bristol City 42.5%",
"Market: Bristol City ~54.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Watford odds \u2191 +18.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bristol City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.27,
"fair_prob": 42.51,
"label": "Bristol City",
"market_prob": 54.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.3,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.98,
"fair_prob": 27.85,
"label": "Watford",
"market_prob": 20.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.51,
"fair_prob": 40.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.51,
"fair_prob": 59.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.03,
"fair_prob": 48.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.03,
"fair_prob": 51.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.51,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Bristol City",
"market_prob_pct": 54.78,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Watford"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Bristol City\u0027s win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.5%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bristol City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.3,
"model_prob_pct": 42.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Bristol City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bristol City 1.23 xG vs Watford 1.09 \u2192 Bristol City 42.5%",
"Market: Bristol City ~54.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Watford odds \u2191 +18.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bristol City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.27,
"hero_label": "Bristol City",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Watford odds lengthened \u2191 +18.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Watford has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Bristol City than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Watford \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Bristol City than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Watford has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Watford \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Bristol City more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Watford has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Watford."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.9 pp (at 42.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.9,
"max_prob_pct": 42.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Bristol City",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Bristol City higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.27,
"edge_pp": -12.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.51,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bristol City",
"market_prob_pct": 54.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.3,
"edge_pp": 5.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.98,
"edge_pp": 6.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Watford",
"market_prob_pct": 20.87,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Watford \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bristol City (54.8%).",
"However, Watford has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.4%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Bristol City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 134h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Watford together (18.4% drift, score 64) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.62",
"4.21",
"3.80"
],
"display": "4.62 \u2192 3.36 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 134h 1m",
"pick_team": "Watford",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.62"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.36"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
4.62,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Watford odds \u2191 +18.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Watford",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Watford odds \u2191 +18.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Watford",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Watford",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Watford",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "watford",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Watford",
"away_team_id": 38,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/38.webp",
"away_team_name": "Watford",
"away_team_public_id": "0i8Df31fPVBsmx",
"away_team_slug": "watford",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1563168,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Bristol City",
"home_team_id": 56,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/56.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bristol City",
"home_team_public_id": "5YI2Lmlnkptg0B",
"home_team_slug": "bristol-city",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bristol-city",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Championship de Inglaterra",
"league_id": 40,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/40.webp",
"league_name": "Championship de Inglaterra",
"league_public_id": "0hAgPj4dcuGGAo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 19:00:00",
"public_id": "1Y8QBuKPM3k3ob",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Bristol",
"venue_name": "Ashton Gate Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1791,
"best_odd": 4.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.2087,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2087,
"draw": 0.2435,
"home": 0.5478
},
"model_prob": 0.2783,
"p_final": 0.2212
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2761,
"best_odd": 3.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": 0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.2435,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2087,
"draw": 0.2435,
"home": 0.5478
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2581
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4896,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.06,
"ev": -0.1415,
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2087,
"draw": 0.2435,
"home": 0.5478
},
"model_prob": 0.4252,
"p_final": 0.4878
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.62,
"edge": 0.0619,
"ev": 0.2859,
"implied_prob": 0.2165,
"model_prob": 0.2783
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.96,
"edge": 0.044,
"ev": 0.1741,
"implied_prob": 0.2525,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.143,
"ev": -0.2517,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.4252
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4767,
"alpha_yes": 0.5243,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.75,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0603,
"edge_yes": -0.0603,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1029,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.019,
"ev_yes": -0.1477,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1328,
"implied_no": 0.4527,
"implied_yes": 0.5473,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4767,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"model_prob": 0.513,
"p_final": 0.4809
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5243,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1328,
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"model_prob": 0.487,
"p_final": 0.5162
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4809,
"p_final_yes": 0.5162,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4838,
"alpha_under": 0.4398,
"best_over_odd": 1.82,
"best_under_odd": 2.14,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.1351,
"edge_under": 0.1351,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2556,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1769,
"ev_under": 0.2647,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0568,
"implied_over": 0.5441,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5438,
"implied_under": 0.4559,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4562,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4838,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0652,
"ev": -0.1769,
"implied_prob": 0.5438,
"model_prob": 0.409,
"p_final": 0.4786
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0593,
"ev": 0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.4562,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"p_final": 0.5155
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4786,
"p_final_under": 0.5155,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.32,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2647,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2859,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2647,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bristol City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2647,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2859,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bristol City at 42.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bristol City as the value side (42.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bristol City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bristol City).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1415,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4252,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2516,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -8.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.487,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4252,
"over_prob": 0.409,
"total_xg": 2.32,
"under_prob": 0.591,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.2435,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.2087,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2783,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Watford",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.06,
"ev": -0.1415,
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4252,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bristol City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4767,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0293,
"market_prob": 0.4516,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.513,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4767,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"model_prob": 0.513,
"p_final": 0.4809
},
"p_final": 0.4809,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.019,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5243,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1328,
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"model_prob": 0.487,
"p_final": 0.5162
}
},
"edge": 0.0603,
"ev": 0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.4527,
"model_prob": 0.513,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0593,
"market_prob": 0.4562,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4838,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0652,
"ev": -0.1769,
"implied_prob": 0.5438,
"model_prob": 0.409,
"p_final": 0.4786
},
"p_final": 0.5155,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0568,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0593,
"ev": 0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.4562,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"p_final": 0.5155
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1351,
"ev": 0.2647,
"implied_prob": 0.4559,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1563168,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2647,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2783,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.4252
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.4527,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.513,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.4527,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.513,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Watford",
"home": "Bristol City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.109506,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2647,
"implied_prob": 0.4559,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 4,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1415,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4252,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2516,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1563168,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T19:35:46.891401+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Bristol City & Watford!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Championship de Inglaterra — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham City | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston North End | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 8 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Southampton | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Norwich | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Wolves | 7 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Millwall | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Swansea City | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 8 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Birmingham City | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 15 | Cardiff City | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Sheffield United | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 19 | Burnley | 8 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Preston North End | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Lincoln City | 8 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 22 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 23 | Watford | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 24 | Derby County | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 8 | 7.2 | 2.6 | +4.6 | 10 |
| 2 | Wolves | 7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | +4.4 | 14 |
| 3 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 8.5 | 4.2 | +4.3 | 13 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | +3.5 | 15 |
| 5 | Wrexham | 8 | 5.4 | 3.5 | +1.9 | 10 |
| 6 | Swansea City | 8 | 4.6 | 3.0 | +1.6 | 17 |
| 7 | Millwall | 8 | 8.6 | 7.2 | +1.4 | 11 |
| 8 | Birmingham City | 8 | 7.5 | 6.2 | +1.3 | 11 |
| 9 | West Ham United | 8 | 4.9 | 4.0 | +0.9 | 15 |
| 10 | Norwich | 8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | +0.2 | 9 |
| 11 | Sheffield United | 8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 9 |
| 12 | Portsmouth | 7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | -0.4 | 8 |
| 13 | Cardiff City | 8 | 5.8 | 6.8 | -1.0 | 7 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 15 | Preston North End | 8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | -1.1 | 4 |
| 16 | Burnley | 8 | 4.8 | 6.0 | -1.2 | 4 |
| 17 | Watford | 8 | 2.6 | 4.0 | -1.4 | 8 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 8 | 4.5 | 6.4 | -1.9 | 11 |
| 19 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2.8 | 4.7 | -1.9 | 9 |
| 20 | Derby County | 8 | 4.5 | 6.8 | -2.3 | 5 |
| 21 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 5.4 | 8.0 | -2.6 | 14 |
| 22 | Bristol City | 8 | 4.1 | 6.9 | -2.8 | 13 |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3.4 | 6.5 | -3.1 | 12 |
| 24 | Stoke City | 8 | 2.2 | 5.6 | -3.4 | 13 |
