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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Middlesbrough Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.47
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "98d59ada9f758cfec03838b4cf3b1b1caa5d353c08c04326f318bb5c2e374885",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.1814,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2332,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.5854,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"away_win_prob": 0.1814,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1814,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.422,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2332,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2332,
"fair_odds_away": 5.51,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 5.51,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.29,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.29,
"fair_odds_home": 1.71,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.71,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.93,
"home_win_prob": 0.5854,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.5854,
"over_25_prob": 0.579,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.421
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Middlesbrough or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Middlesbrough"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Middlesbrough",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.069,
"edge_gap": 0.3519,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6541,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 18.2,
"draw": 23.3,
"home": 58.5
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.47
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.47,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Middlesbrough Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.53,
"market_odds": 1.47,
"model_odds": 1.71,
"overround": 4.0,
"prob_edge": -9.5,
"value_pct": -14.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 85.5,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 57.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
"home_expected": 1.93,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Middlesbrough or Draw",
"prob": 81.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Middlesbrough or Millwall",
"prob": 76.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Millwall",
"prob": 41.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Middlesbrough or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.1,
"draw_pct": 23.3,
"home_pct": 58.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Middlesbrough"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.01,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 57.9,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.01,
"under_prob": 42.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.9,
"implied_prob": 15.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Millwall Win",
"model_prob": 18.1,
"odds": 6.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Millwall",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 14.64,
"draw": 19.95,
"home": 65.41
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:42:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:15:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Middlesbrough",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.41,
"gap_pp": -6.9,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 58.52
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.95,
"gap_pp": 3.37,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.32
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 14.64,
"gap_pp": 3.52,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 18.16
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.08,
"gap_pp": -3.18,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 57.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.92,
"gap_pp": 3.18,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 42.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.41,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.82,
"early": 4.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.95,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 6.57,
"early": 6.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 14.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 14.64,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.58,
"early": 1.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.08,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.48,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.92,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.2,
"ev": -0.0215,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.103,
"model_prob_pct": 10.3,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.93,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0126,
"edge_pp": -1.3,
"market_prob": 0.6005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5879
},
"p_final": 0.5879,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1141,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1005,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4268,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4087
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0538,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.4,
"text": "+5.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0441,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0538,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 57.9,
"sort_key": 10048.42,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 42.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.093,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0054,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Middlesbrough",
"sort_key": 5204.32,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.5547,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.532,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0995,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4329
},
"p_final": 0.5683,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0347,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5683
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0716,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0058,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0058,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"sort_key": 1798.55,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"alert_team": "Millwall",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.87,
"hero_label": "Middlesbrough",
"market_prob_pct": 65.4,
"market_team": "Middlesbrough",
"model_prob_pct": 58.5,
"model_team": "Middlesbrough",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0538,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1931,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Middlesbrough at 58.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 65.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Middlesbrough as the value side (58.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Middlesbrough",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Middlesbrough \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.04 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563147 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.04 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6802721088435374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.87,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.93,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.93,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.93 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +43%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"steam_team": "Millwall",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0538,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1931,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Middlesbrough at 58.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 65.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Middlesbrough as the value side (58.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Middlesbrough",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Middlesbrough \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.04 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563147 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.04 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6802721088435374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Middlesbrough 1.93 xG vs Millwall 1.08 \u2192 Middlesbrough 58.5%",
"Market: Middlesbrough ~65.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Millwall odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Middlesbrough projects stronger on expected goals (+0.85 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob": 58.54,
"label": "Middlesbrough",
"market_prob": 65.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob": 23.32,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.5,
"fair_prob": 18.14,
"label": "Millwall",
"market_prob": 14.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.62,
"fair_prob": 57.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.62,
"fair_prob": 42.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.34,
"fair_prob": 57.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.34,
"fair_prob": 42.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Middlesbrough",
"market_prob_pct": 65.41,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Millwall"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Middlesbrough\u0027s win probability at 65.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 58.5%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Middlesbrough",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 65.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.9,
"model_prob_pct": 58.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Middlesbrough \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Middlesbrough 1.93 xG vs Millwall 1.08 \u2192 Middlesbrough 58.5%",
"Market: Middlesbrough ~65.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Millwall odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Middlesbrough projects stronger on expected goals (+0.85 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.87,
"hero_label": "Middlesbrough",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Millwall odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Millwall has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Middlesbrough. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Millwall \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Middlesbrough. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Millwall has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Millwall \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Middlesbrough above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Millwall has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/10) supports the current market view on Millwall."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 35.2 pp (at 58.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 35.2,
"max_prob_pct": 58.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Middlesbrough",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Middlesbrough higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.87,
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Middlesbrough",
"market_prob_pct": 65.41,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.37,
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.5,
"edge_pp": 3.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Millwall",
"market_prob_pct": 14.64,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Millwall \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Middlesbrough (65.4%).",
"However, Millwall has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 9/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Middlesbrough \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 68.03,
"closing_odds": 1.47,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 68.03,
"entry_odds": 1.47,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +61.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 61.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 60h 9m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/10 books lengthened Millwall together (25.0% drift, score 78) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.57",
"5.79",
"5.00"
],
"display": "6.57 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 6.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 60h 9m",
"pick_team": "Millwall",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.57"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
6.57,
6.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.57"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Millwall odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Millwall",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Millwall odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Millwall",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Millwall",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_team_name": "Millwall",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "millwall",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Millwall",
"away_team_id": 58,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/58.webp",
"away_team_name": "Millwall",
"away_team_public_id": "4NXHpxkRa8xT84",
"away_team_slug": "millwall",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1563147,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Middlesbrough",
"home_team_id": 70,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/70.webp",
"home_team_name": "Middlesbrough",
"home_team_public_id": "2eESl4nYViufW6",
"home_team_slug": "middlesbrough",
"ht.home_team_slug": "middlesbrough",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Championship de Inglaterra",
"league_id": 40,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/40.webp",
"league_name": "Championship de Inglaterra",
"league_public_id": "0hAgPj4dcuGGAo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4iBUv7fNelHSbn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Middlesbrough",
"venue_name": "Riverside Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1894,
"best_odd": 6.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": 0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.1464,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1464,
"draw": 0.1995,
"home": 0.6541
},
"model_prob": 0.1816,
"p_final": 0.153
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1899,
"best_odd": 4.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0064,
"ev": -0.0075,
"implied_prob": 0.1995,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1464,
"draw": 0.1995,
"home": 0.6541
},
"model_prob": 0.2332,
"p_final": 0.2059
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5379,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1464,
"draw": 0.1995,
"home": 0.6541
},
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"p_final": 0.617
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.57,
"edge": 0.0294,
"ev": 0.1931,
"implied_prob": 0.1522,
"model_prob": 0.1816
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.82,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": 0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.2075,
"model_prob": 0.2332
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0951,
"ev": -0.1398,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.5852
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.532,
"alpha_yes": 0.5852,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.72,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0234,
"edge_yes": 0.0234,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0716,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0995,
"ev_yes": -0.0058,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0509,
"implied_no": 0.4454,
"implied_yes": 0.5546,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.532,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0995,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4329
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5683
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4329,
"p_final_yes": 0.5683,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5868,
"alpha_under": 0.4268,
"best_over_odd": 1.82,
"best_under_odd": 2.48,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.3,
"edge_over": -0.0162,
"edge_under": 0.0162,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0538,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1005,
"ev_under": 0.0441,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"implied_over": 0.5952,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6005,
"implied_under": 0.4048,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3995,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5879
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4268,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4087
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5879,
"p_final_under": 0.4087,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.01,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "over",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0538,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1931,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0538,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0538,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1931,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Middlesbrough at 58.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 65.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Middlesbrough as the value side (58.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Middlesbrough",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Middlesbrough \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.04 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563147 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.04 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6802721088435374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
"draw_prob": 0.2332,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5852,
"over_prob": 0.579,
"total_xg": 3.01,
"under_prob": 0.421,
"xg_diff": 0.85
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0538,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Middlesbrough"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.5547,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.532,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0995,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4329
},
"p_final": 0.5683,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5683
}
},
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0058,
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0126,
"market_prob": 0.6005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5879
},
"p_final": 0.5879,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1005,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4268,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4087
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": 0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1563147,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0538,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1816,
"draw": 0.2332,
"home": 0.5852
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Millwall",
"home": "Middlesbrough"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6802721088435374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1563147,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T19:17:37.130115+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Championship de Inglaterra — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham City | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston North End | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 8 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Southampton | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Norwich | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Wolves | 7 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Millwall | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Swansea City | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 8 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Birmingham City | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 15 | Cardiff City | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Sheffield United | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 19 | Burnley | 8 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Preston North End | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Lincoln City | 8 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 22 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 23 | Watford | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 24 | Derby County | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 8 | 7.2 | 2.6 | +4.6 | 10 |
| 2 | Wolves | 7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | +4.4 | 14 |
| 3 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 8.5 | 4.2 | +4.3 | 13 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | +3.5 | 15 |
| 5 | Wrexham | 8 | 5.4 | 3.5 | +1.9 | 10 |
| 6 | Swansea City | 8 | 4.6 | 3.0 | +1.6 | 17 |
| 7 | Millwall | 8 | 8.6 | 7.2 | +1.4 | 11 |
| 8 | Birmingham City | 8 | 7.5 | 6.2 | +1.3 | 11 |
| 9 | West Ham United | 8 | 4.9 | 4.0 | +0.9 | 15 |
| 10 | Norwich | 8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | +0.2 | 9 |
| 11 | Sheffield United | 8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 9 |
| 12 | Portsmouth | 7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | -0.4 | 8 |
| 13 | Cardiff City | 8 | 5.8 | 6.8 | -1.0 | 7 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 15 | Preston North End | 8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | -1.1 | 4 |
| 16 | Burnley | 8 | 4.8 | 6.0 | -1.2 | 4 |
| 17 | Watford | 8 | 2.6 | 4.0 | -1.4 | 8 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 8 | 4.5 | 6.4 | -1.9 | 11 |
| 19 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2.8 | 4.7 | -1.9 | 9 |
| 20 | Derby County | 8 | 4.5 | 6.8 | -2.3 | 5 |
| 21 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 5.4 | 8.0 | -2.6 | 14 |
| 22 | Bristol City | 8 | 4.1 | 6.9 | -2.8 | 13 |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3.4 | 6.5 | -3.1 | 12 |
| 24 | Stoke City | 8 | 2.2 | 5.6 | -3.4 | 13 |
