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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 1-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · Urawa Red Diamonds 1–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "059d3387fc3225e19b05649638cf47903c227e9d6bef9d2b08516822bdd7cd99",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 2.06,
"away_win_prob": 0.5939,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.42,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.58,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2327,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 1.68,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.3,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 5.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.05,
"home_win_prob": 0.1734,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.601,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.399
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima"
},
"away_xg": 2.06,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"confidence": 59.5,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"edge": 0.1018,
"edge_gap": 0.3623,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4928,
"model_prob": 0.5946,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 59.5,
"draw": 23.2,
"home": 17.3
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.03,
"market_odds": 1.95,
"model_odds": 1.68,
"overround": 4.1,
"prob_edge": 8.2,
"value_pct": 16.1,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 87.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 65.0,
"no_prob": 42.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 58.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 58.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.06,
"home_expected": 1.05,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 6.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Urawa Red Diamonds or Draw",
"prob": 40.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Urawa Red Diamonds or Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"prob": 76.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"prob": 82.7
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"pick_prob": 82.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 59.4,
"draw_pct": 23.3,
"home_pct": 17.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 3.11,
"away_avg_scored": 3.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 3.0,
"over_prob": 60.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.11,
"under_prob": 39.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 16.1,
"implied_prob": 51.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win",
"model_prob": 59.5,
"odds": 1.95
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 49.28,
"draw": 26.69,
"home": 24.02
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-15 09:59:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-15 09:31:06",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.02,
"gap_pp": -6.71,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 17.31
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.69,
"gap_pp": -3.46,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.23
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.28,
"gap_pp": 10.18,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 59.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 60.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": -10.1,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 39.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.02,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.69,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.28,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.5,
"ev": -0.1337,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-2",
"market_odds": 8.75,
"market_prob": 0.1143,
"market_prob_pct": 11.4,
"model_prob": 0.099,
"model_prob_pct": 9.9,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 6.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.05,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0619,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5946,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 60.1,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 39.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 42.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 58.0
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 9.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.11,
"hero_label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"market_prob_pct": 49.3,
"market_team": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"model_prob_pct": 59.4,
"model_team": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 5,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1594,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 43,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 59.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the value side (59.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sanfrecce Hiroshima \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.95 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1554015 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.95 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "43 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sanfrecce Hiroshima).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5946,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.01"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.01
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.11,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.06,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.05,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.06,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.05 \u00b7 Away xG 2.06 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +53%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1594,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 43,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 59.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the value side (59.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sanfrecce Hiroshima \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.95 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1554015 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.95 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "43 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sanfrecce Hiroshima).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5946,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.01"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.01
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Urawa Red Diamonds 1.05 xG vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.06 \u2192 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 59.4%",
"Market: Sanfrecce Hiroshima ~49.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima projects stronger on expected goals (+1.01 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.68,
"fair_prob": 17.34,
"label": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"market_prob": 24.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob": 23.27,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.11,
"fair_prob": 59.39,
"label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"market_prob": 49.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 60.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 39.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 58.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 42.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 59.39,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"market_prob_pct": 49.28,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Sanfrecce Hiroshima\u0027s win probability at 59.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 49.3%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.1,
"model_prob_pct": 59.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Urawa Red Diamonds 1.05 xG vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.06 \u2192 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 59.4%",
"Market: Sanfrecce Hiroshima ~49.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima projects stronger on expected goals (+1.01 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.11,
"hero_label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +2.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Sanfrecce Hiroshima.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Sanfrecce Hiroshima.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Sanfrecce Hiroshima more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 36.1 pp (at 59.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 36.1,
"max_prob_pct": 59.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.1,
"lead": "The model rates Sanfrecce Hiroshima considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.68,
"edge_pp": -6.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"market_prob_pct": 24.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.42,
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.27,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.69,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.11,
"edge_pp": 10.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 59.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"market_prob_pct": 49.28,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sanfrecce Hiroshima (49.3%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.9%, 2/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Sanfrecce Hiroshima \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "2/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 123h 16m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.60 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.50) \u2014 net 2.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.50",
"3.40"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 123h 16m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.6,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 5,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/12",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 5,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"away_team_id": 282,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/282.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"away_team_slug": "sanfrecce-hiroshima",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1554015,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"home_team_id": 287,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/287.webp",
"home_team_name": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"home_team_slug": "urawa",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J1 League",
"league_id": 98,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/98.webp",
"league_name": "J1 League",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-08-15 10:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Saitama",
"venue_name": "Saitama Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5084,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0517,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4928,
"draw": 0.2669,
"home": 0.2402
},
"model_prob": 0.5946,
"p_final": 0.5446
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2844,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.0745,
"implied_prob": 0.2669,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4928,
"draw": 0.2669,
"home": 0.2402
},
"model_prob": 0.2323,
"p_final": 0.2571
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1799,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.0873,
"implied_prob": 0.2402,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4928,
"draw": 0.2669,
"home": 0.2402
},
"model_prob": 0.1731,
"p_final": 0.2282
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0818,
"ev": 0.1594,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.5946
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": -0.0455,
"ev": -0.1637,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2323
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": -0.0769,
"ev": -0.3075,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.1731
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.11,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1594,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1594,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 43,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 59.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the value side (59.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sanfrecce Hiroshima \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.95 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1554015 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.95 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "43 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sanfrecce Hiroshima).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5946,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.01"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.01
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.58,
"draw_prob": 0.2323,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5946,
"over_prob": 0.601,
"total_xg": 3.11,
"under_prob": 0.399,
"xg_diff": 1.01
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0517,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5946,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.601,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1554015,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5946,
"draw": 0.2323,
"home": 0.1731
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"home": "Urawa Red Diamonds"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044167,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5946,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5946,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1554015,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-15T09:59:49.846633+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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J1 League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 17 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 17 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 19 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
| 19 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | +2.0 | 8 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | +1.6 | 17 |
| 3 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 14 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | +1.4 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 3.0 | 1.7 | +1.3 | 17 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | +0.7 | 11 |
| 7 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | 12 |
| 8 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | +0.5 | 13 |
| 9 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | +0.3 | 9 |
| 10 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 13 |
| 11 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 4 |
| 12 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 4 |
| 13 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 18 |
| 14 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 10 |
| 15 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0.9 | 2.3 | -1.4 | 4 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 1.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | 8 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 0.6 | 2.2 | -1.6 | 6 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1.7 | 3.7 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 19 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | — | — | — | 17 |
| 20 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | — | — | — | 13 |
