Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Radnički 1923 Radnički 1923 ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 5-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.46
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Radnički 1923 win · Radnički 1923 5–0 Mladost Lučani
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "fb431f47130260a5f269a949a391d8b1fd411029cd9cf36dfbda9aff39c851b8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.249,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2577,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4933,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"away_win_prob": 0.249,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.249,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.366,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.634,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2577,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2577,
"fair_odds_away": 4.02,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 4.02,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.88,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.88,
"fair_odds_home": 2.03,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.03,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.72,
"home_win_prob": 0.4933,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4933,
"over_25_prob": 0.605,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.395
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Radni\u010dki 1923 or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Radni\u010dki 1923"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1349,
"edge_gap": 0.2351,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.628,
"model_prob": 0.4931,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 24.9,
"draw": 25.8,
"home": 49.3
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.46
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.46,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Radni\u010dki 1923 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.59,
"market_odds": 1.46,
"model_odds": 2.03,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -19.2,
"value_pct": -28.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 82.1,
"no_prob": 36.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 63.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 63.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.41,
"home_expected": 1.72,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Radni\u010dki 1923 or Draw",
"prob": 75.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Radni\u010dki 1923 or Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"prob": 74.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"prob": 50.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Radni\u010dki 1923 or Draw",
"pick_prob": 75.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 24.9,
"draw_pct": 25.8,
"home_pct": 49.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Radni\u010dki 1923"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.13,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 60.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.13,
"under_prob": 39.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 56.1,
"implied_prob": 15.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Mladost Lu\u010dani Win",
"model_prob": 24.9,
"odds": 6.27
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 14.62,
"draw": 22.58,
"home": 62.8
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:05:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.8,
"gap_pp": -13.49,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 49.31
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.58,
"gap_pp": 3.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 14.62,
"gap_pp": 10.28,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 24.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.63,
"gap_pp": 12.87,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 60.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.37,
"gap_pp": -12.87,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 39.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.46,
"early": 1.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.06,
"early": 4.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.58,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 6.27,
"early": 6.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 14.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 14.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.63,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.37,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.7,
"ev": -0.205,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.106,
"model_prob_pct": 10.6,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.72,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1747,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0303,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.4603,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.634,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1342,
"implied_prob": 0.5397,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.5063
},
"p_final": 0.4906,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2712,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0163,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1747,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": -0.0163,
"implied_prob": 0.4603,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"p_final": 0.4906
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3522,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.2,
"text": "-35.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3314,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 33.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3314,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 36.6,
"sort_key": 10448.26,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 63.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0249,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.4738,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.605,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": -0.0225,
"implied_prob": 0.4738,
"model_prob": 0.605,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"p_final": 0.4987,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1858,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0225,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2087,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"model_prob": 0.395,
"p_final": 0.4988
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2584,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 25.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2613,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.1,
"text": "-26.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2584,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 60.5,
"sort_key": 10232.56,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 39.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1774,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.7,
"text": "-17.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0258,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4931,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"sort_key": 5220.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"alert_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.47,
"hero_label": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"market_prob_pct": 62.8,
"market_team": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"model_prob_pct": 49.3,
"model_team": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Radni\u010dki 1923)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Radni\u010dki 1923)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3314,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5611,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Radni\u010dki 1923 at 49.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Radni\u010dki 1923 as the value side (49.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Radni\u010dki 1923 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +56% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553867 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +33.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Radni\u010dki 1923).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +56% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1774,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4931,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.684931506849315,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6923076923076923,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.47,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.72,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.72,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.72 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +27%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"steam_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Radni\u010dki 1923)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Radni\u010dki 1923)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3314,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5611,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Radni\u010dki 1923 at 49.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Radni\u010dki 1923 as the value side (49.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Radni\u010dki 1923 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +56% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553867 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +33.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Radni\u010dki 1923).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +56% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1774,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4931,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.684931506849315,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Radni\u010dki 1923 1.72 xG vs Mladost Lu\u010dani 1.41 \u2192 Radni\u010dki 1923 49.3%",
"Market: Radni\u010dki 1923 ~62.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Mladost Lu\u010dani odds \u2191 +15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Radni\u010dki 1923 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.47,
"fair_prob": 49.33,
"label": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"market_prob": 62.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob": 25.77,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.28,
"fair_prob": 24.9,
"label": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"market_prob": 14.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.04,
"fair_prob": 60.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.04,
"fair_prob": 39.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.45,
"fair_prob": 63.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.45,
"fair_prob": 36.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.33,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"market_prob_pct": 62.8,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Mladost Lu\u010dani"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Radni\u010dki 1923\u0027s win probability at 62.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 49.3%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 62.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.5,
"model_prob_pct": 49.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Radni\u010dki 1923 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Radni\u010dki 1923 1.72 xG vs Mladost Lu\u010dani 1.41 \u2192 Radni\u010dki 1923 49.3%",
"Market: Radni\u010dki 1923 ~62.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Mladost Lu\u010dani odds \u2191 +15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Radni\u010dki 1923 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.47,
"hero_label": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Mladost Lu\u010dani odds lengthened \u2191 +15.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Mladost Lu\u010dani has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Radni\u010dki 1923 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Radni\u010dki 1923 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Mladost Lu\u010dani has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Radni\u010dki 1923 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Mladost Lu\u010dani has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 23.6 pp (at 49.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 23.6,
"max_prob_pct": 49.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Radni\u010dki 1923 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.47,
"edge_pp": -13.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.33,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"market_prob_pct": 62.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.19,
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.28,
"edge_pp": 10.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.9,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"market_prob_pct": 14.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Radni\u010dki 1923 (62.8%).",
"Mladost Lu\u010dani odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +15.0%, 9/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Radni\u010dki 1923 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 68.49,
"closing_odds": 1.46,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 68.49,
"entry_odds": 1.46,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 116h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Mladost Lu\u010dani (15.0%, 9/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.27",
"5.63",
"5.00"
],
"display": "6.91 \u2192 4.90 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 116h 52m",
"pick_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.91"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
6.27,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.27"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/13 sportsbooks on Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mladost-lucani",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"away_team_id": 699,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/699.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"away_team_public_id": "5RNv3qZtHoF8mv",
"away_team_slug": "mladost-lucani",
"country_code": "RS",
"country_display_name": "Serbia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/rs.svg",
"country_id": 138,
"country_name": "Serbia",
"fixture_id": 1553867,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 3,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 3,
"home_team_country": "Serbia",
"home_team_display_name": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"home_team_id": 2644,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2644.webp",
"home_team_name": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"home_team_public_id": "5EvSCeSc4qwX4C",
"home_team_slug": "radnicki-1923",
"ht.home_team_slug": "radnicki-1923",
"league_country": "Serbia",
"league_country_display": "Serbia",
"league_display_name": "Superliga de Serbia",
"league_id": 286,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/286.webp",
"league_name": "Superliga de Serbia",
"league_public_id": "39UiXfhSzX5Ghb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 18:30:00",
"public_id": "1WqKPJ1PS9UmUE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Kragujevac",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1692,
"best_odd": 6.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": 0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.1462,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1462,
"draw": 0.2258,
"home": 0.628
},
"model_prob": 0.249,
"p_final": 0.1636
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1904,
"best_odd": 4.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0583,
"implied_prob": 0.2258,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1462,
"draw": 0.2258,
"home": 0.628
},
"model_prob": 0.258,
"p_final": 0.2319
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4786,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0646,
"ev": -0.1774,
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1462,
"draw": 0.2258,
"home": 0.628
},
"model_prob": 0.4931,
"p_final": 0.5634
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.27,
"edge": 0.0895,
"ev": 0.5611,
"implied_prob": 0.1595,
"model_prob": 0.249
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.06,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": 0.0473,
"implied_prob": 0.2463,
"model_prob": 0.258
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.1919,
"ev": -0.2801,
"implied_prob": 0.6849,
"model_prob": 0.4931
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1922,
"alpha_yes": 0.1747,
"best_no_odd": 1.77,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1745,
"edge_yes": 0.1745,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3522,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1342,
"ev_yes": 0.3314,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0163,
"implied_no": 0.5405,
"implied_yes": 0.4595,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1342,
"implied_prob": 0.5397,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.5063
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1747,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": -0.0163,
"implied_prob": 0.4603,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"p_final": 0.4906
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5063,
"p_final_yes": 0.4906,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1898,
"alpha_under": 0.2087,
"best_over_odd": 2.08,
"best_under_odd": 1.87,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.96,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.765,
"edge_over": 0.1304,
"edge_under": -0.1304,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2584,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0225,
"ev_under": -0.2613,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1196,
"implied_over": 0.4746,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4738,
"implied_under": 0.5254,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5262,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": -0.0225,
"implied_prob": 0.4738,
"model_prob": 0.605,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2087,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"model_prob": 0.395,
"p_final": 0.4988
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4987,
"p_final_under": 0.4988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.13,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3314,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5611,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3314,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Radni\u010dki 1923)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3314,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5611,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Radni\u010dki 1923 at 49.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Radni\u010dki 1923 as the value side (49.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Radni\u010dki 1923",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Radni\u010dki 1923 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +56% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553867 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +33.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Radni\u010dki 1923).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +56% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1774,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4931,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.684931506849315,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.634,
"draw_prob": 0.258,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4931,
"over_prob": 0.605,
"total_xg": 3.13,
"under_prob": 0.395,
"xg_diff": 0.31
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.1462,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.249,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0646,
"ev": -0.1774,
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4931,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Radni\u010dki 1923"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1747,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0303,
"market_prob": 0.4603,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.634,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1342,
"implied_prob": 0.5397,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.5063
},
"p_final": 0.4906,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0163,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1747,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": -0.0163,
"implied_prob": 0.4603,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"p_final": 0.4906
}
},
"edge": 0.1745,
"ev": 0.3314,
"implied_prob": 0.4595,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0249,
"market_prob": 0.4738,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.605,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": -0.0225,
"implied_prob": 0.4738,
"model_prob": 0.605,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"p_final": 0.4987,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0225,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2087,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"model_prob": 0.395,
"p_final": 0.4988
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1304,
"ev": 0.2584,
"implied_prob": 0.4746,
"model_prob": 0.605,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1553867,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3314,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.249,
"draw": 0.258,
"home": 0.4931
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2584,
"implied_prob": 0.4746,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.605,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2584,
"implied_prob": 0.4746,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.605,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"home": "Radni\u010dki 1923"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.241624,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3314,
"implied_prob": 0.4595,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.634,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1774,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4931,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.684931506849315,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553867,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T19:59:20.116649+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Radnički 1923 & Mladost Lučani!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Superliga de Serbia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 3 | Radnički 1923 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | IMT Novi Beograd | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Mladost Lučani | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Novi Pazar | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Železničar Pančevo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Čukarički | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Radnički Niš | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 | Macva | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Partizán | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Zemun | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vojvodina | 9 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 19 | 2 | +17 | 22 |
| 3 | Partizán | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Radnički 1923 | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 9 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Čukarički | 9 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | OFK Beograd | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Surdulica | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Novi Pazar | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Mladost Lučani | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Radnički Niš | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 9 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 8 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vojvodina | 9 | 7.0 | 1.1 | +5.9 | 21 |
| 2 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 5.9 | 1.2 | +4.7 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnički 1923 | 8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | +0.8 | 14 |
| 4 | Partizán | 8 | 3.7 | 3.1 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 5 | Čukarički | 9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | +0.4 | 11 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | +0.3 | 12 |
| 7 | Radnički Niš | 8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | +0.2 | 8 |
| 8 | Železničar Pančevo | 7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 11 |
| 9 | IMT Novi Beograd | 9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 14 |
| 10 | Novi Pazar | 9 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.8 | 12 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 9 | 0.3 | 2.1 | -1.8 | 9 |
| 12 | Macva | 9 | 0.5 | 4.7 | -4.2 | 8 |
| 13 | Zemun | 8 | 1.9 | 7.4 | -5.5 | 1 |
| 14 | Mladost Lučani | 9 | — | — | — | 13 |
