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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Wieczysta Kraków Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.12
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Wieczysta Kraków 1–1 Zagłębie Lubin
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1e1b0809e4248b1622f34ebd5202f868c3b13d6b56529f4de25967b8b8976585",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3322,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.436,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.564,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2896,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.01,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.45,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.64,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3782,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0751,
"edge_gap": 0.0465,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4535,
"model_prob": 0.3785,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.2,
"draw": 29.0,
"home": 37.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.12
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.12,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.2,
"market_odds": 2.12,
"model_odds": 2.64,
"overround": 4.0,
"prob_edge": -9.3,
"value_pct": -19.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 43.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 56.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 56.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w or Draw",
"prob": 66.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w or Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"prob": 71.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"prob": 62.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w or Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"pick_prob": 71.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.2,
"draw_pct": 29.0,
"home_pct": 37.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.7,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.7,
"under_prob": 49.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 12.2,
"implied_prob": 29.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin Win",
"model_prob": 33.2,
"odds": 3.38
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.45,
"draw": 26.2,
"home": 45.35
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-07 15:59:50",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-07 15:30:10",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.35,
"gap_pp": -7.51,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.2,
"gap_pp": 2.76,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.45,
"gap_pp": 4.75,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.19
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.38,
"gap_pp": -4.78,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 50.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.62,
"gap_pp": 4.78,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 49.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.35,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.67,
"early": 3.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.2,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.38,
"early": 3.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.45,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.38,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.16,
"early": 2.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.62,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.5,
"ev": -0.1094,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.3,
"market_prob": 0.137,
"market_prob_pct": 13.7,
"model_prob": 0.122,
"model_prob_pct": 12.2,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3381,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.018,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4406,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3719,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.5395
},
"p_final": 0.4587,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0473,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0276,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3381,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0276,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.4587
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1347,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0868,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.7,
"text": "+8.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0868,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"sort_key": 10228.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 49.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1021,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0062,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.6,
"text": "+0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3785,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1976,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"sort_key": 5204.96,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.283,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0071,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.436,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.283,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.436,
"p_final": 0.4181
},
"p_final": 0.4181,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.019,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0593,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3891,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0905,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.564,
"p_final": 0.5793
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0028,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0581,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0028,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 43.6,
"sort_key": 5202.24,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 56.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"alert_team": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.53,
"hero_label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"market_prob_pct": 45.4,
"market_team": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"model_prob_pct": 37.8,
"model_team": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0868,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1219,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w at 37.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w as the value side (37.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553163 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3785,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1976,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.15384615384615385,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.5,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.53,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.53,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"steam_team": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0868,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1219,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w at 37.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w as the value side (37.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553163 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3785,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1976,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w 1.40 xG vs Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin 1.30 \u2192 Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w 37.8%",
"Market: Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w ~45.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w \u2193 -2.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.53,
"fair_prob": 37.82,
"label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"market_prob": 45.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.76,
"fair_prob": 28.96,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.77,
"fair_prob": 33.22,
"label": "Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"market_prob": 28.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.42,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.42,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.02,
"fair_prob": 56.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.02,
"fair_prob": 43.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.82,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"market_prob_pct": 45.35,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w\u0027s win probability at 45.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.8%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.53,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w 1.40 xG vs Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin 1.30 \u2192 Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w 37.8%",
"Market: Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w ~45.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w \u2193 -2.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.53,
"hero_label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w odds shortened \u2193 -2.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w (\u2193 -2.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.53,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.6 pp (at 37.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.6,
"max_prob_pct": 37.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.53,
"edge_pp": -7.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.82,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"market_prob_pct": 45.35,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.76,
"edge_pp": 2.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.77,
"edge_pp": 4.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.22,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"market_prob_pct": 28.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w (45.4%).",
"Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.5%, 2/13).",
"Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.17,
"closing_odds": 2.12,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.17,
"entry_odds": 2.12,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.5
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 108h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w (swing 2.10 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 1.95) \u2014 net 2.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.12",
"2.04",
"1.95"
],
"display": "2.10 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 1.95",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 108h 10m",
"pick_team": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.12,
1.95
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,12.7 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.12"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_team_name": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "zaglebie-lubin",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"away_team_id": 345,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/345.webp",
"away_team_name": "Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"away_team_public_id": "0Pn3Ofy3i79YvO",
"away_team_slug": "zaglebie-lubin",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1553163,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"home_team_id": 17115,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/17115.webp",
"home_team_name": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"home_team_public_id": "5Nvjn2zWMckHML",
"home_team_slug": "wieczysta-krakow",
"ht.home_team_slug": "wieczysta-krakow",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_id": 106,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
"league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_public_id": "4NuE63mQgH9Lz4",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-07 16:00:00",
"public_id": "2Wvl6wT6bfXpdf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2786,
"best_odd": 3.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": 0.0062,
"implied_prob": 0.2845,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2845,
"draw": 0.262,
"home": 0.4535
},
"model_prob": 0.3319,
"p_final": 0.2977
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2876,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0094,
"implied_prob": 0.262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2845,
"draw": 0.262,
"home": 0.4535
},
"model_prob": 0.2896,
"p_final": 0.2699
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3993,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1021,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2845,
"draw": 0.262,
"home": 0.4535
},
"model_prob": 0.3785,
"p_final": 0.4236
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.38,
"edge": 0.0361,
"ev": 0.1219,
"implied_prob": 0.2959,
"model_prob": 0.3319
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2896
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.0932,
"ev": -0.1977,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.3785
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.283,
"alpha_yes": 0.3891,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0202,
"edge_yes": -0.0202,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0028,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0593,
"ev_yes": -0.0581,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0905,
"implied_no": 0.4158,
"implied_yes": 0.5842,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.283,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.436,
"p_final": 0.4181
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3891,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0905,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.564,
"p_final": 0.5793
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4181,
"p_final_yes": 0.5793,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3719,
"alpha_under": 0.3381,
"best_over_odd": 1.71,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.0542,
"edge_under": 0.0542,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1347,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.099,
"ev_under": 0.0868,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0276,
"implied_over": 0.5602,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5594,
"implied_under": 0.4398,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4406,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3719,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.5395
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3381,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0276,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.4587
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5395,
"p_final_under": 0.4587,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0868,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1219,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0868,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0868,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1219,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w at 37.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w as the value side (37.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553163 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3785,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1976,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.564,
"draw_prob": 0.2896,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3785,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1021,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3785,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.283,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0071,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.436,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.283,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.436,
"p_final": 0.4181
},
"p_final": 0.4181,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0593,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3891,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0905,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.564,
"p_final": 0.5793
}
},
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": 0.0028,
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"model_prob": 0.436,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3381,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.018,
"market_prob": 0.4406,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3719,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.5395
},
"p_final": 0.4587,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0276,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3381,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0276,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.4587
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0542,
"ev": 0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.4398,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1553163,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0868,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3319,
"draw": 0.2896,
"home": 0.3785
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Zag\u0142\u0119bie Lubin",
"home": "Wieczysta Krak\u00f3w"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.042879,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.4398,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3785,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1976,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553163,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T15:59:51.860284+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ekstraklasa — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Legia Varsovia | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Cracovia | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Varsovia | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 13 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Cracovia | 9 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 10.4 | 4.1 | +6.3 | 19 |
| 2 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 12.0 | 7.9 | +4.1 | 17 |
| 3 | Legia Varsovia | 9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | +3.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Cracovia | 9 | 10.4 | 7.1 | +3.3 | 8 |
| 5 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 10.0 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 22 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | +2.0 | 12 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 8.4 | 8.2 | +0.2 | 15 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | +0.1 | 9 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 10.5 | 10.6 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 10 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 9.1 | 9.6 | -0.5 | 5 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 8.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 | 6 |
| 12 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 8.1 | 8.9 | -0.8 | 15 |
| 13 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9.6 | 10.8 | -1.2 | 11 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 5.4 | 8.7 | -3.3 | 15 |
| 16 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 7.3 | 10.8 | -3.5 | 13 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7.4 | 11.2 | -3.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 9.9 | 16.5 | -6.6 | 3 |
