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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Pogoń Szczecin Legia Varsovia ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.85
AI Fair Odds
1.95
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Legia Varsovia win · Pogoń Szczecin 0–1 Legia Varsovia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 51.3%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "d39860712c689325125e0f0d89cb8e52344ddc0840762cfba9147b1413f521f1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.291,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.265,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.444,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.291,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.291,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.366,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.634,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.265,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.265,
"fair_odds_away": 3.44,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.44,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.77,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.77,
"fair_odds_home": 2.25,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.25,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.88,
"home_win_prob": 0.444,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.444,
"over_25_prob": 0.62,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.38
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Legia Varsovia",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Legia Varsovia"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1063,
"edge_gap": 0.1537,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.338,
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.1,
"draw": 26.5,
"home": 44.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.85
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.85,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.96,
"market_odds": 2.85,
"model_odds": 2.25,
"overround": 3.8,
"prob_edge": 9.4,
"value_pct": 26.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 84.7,
"no_prob": 36.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 63.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 63.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.88,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin or Draw",
"prob": 70.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin or Legia Varsovia",
"prob": 73.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Legia Varsovia",
"prob": 55.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin or Legia Varsovia",
"pick_prob": 73.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.1,
"draw_pct": 26.5,
"home_pct": 44.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.2,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 62.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.2,
"under_prob": 38.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 26.7,
"implied_prob": 35.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin Win",
"model_prob": 44.4,
"odds": 2.85
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Legia Varsovia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 37.62,
"draw": 28.58,
"home": 33.8
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-24 18:29:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-24 18:03:48",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.8,
"gap_pp": 10.63,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.43
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.58,
"gap_pp": -2.07,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.51
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.62,
"gap_pp": -8.57,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.06
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.65,
"gap_pp": 15.35,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 62.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.35,
"gap_pp": -15.35,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 38.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.37,
"early": 3.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.58,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.56,
"early": 2.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.07,
"early": 2.07,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.65,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.35,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
}
},
"home_xg": 1.88,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 2.91,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Home Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"edge": 10.1,
"ev": 49.2,
"probability": 44.4
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0778,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.8,
"text": "+7.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0778,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.8,
"text": "+7.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"sort_key": 10220.02,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 62.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 38.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 36.6,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 63.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.6,
"hero_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"market_team": "Legia Varsovia",
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"model_team": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2662,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Pogo\u0144 Szczecin at 44.4% vs market 33.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Pogo\u0144 Szczecin as the stronger side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Pogo\u0144 Szczecin \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553104 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "0/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.6,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.88,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.88,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.88 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +39%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +1.9%",
"steam_team": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2662,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Pogo\u0144 Szczecin at 44.4% vs market 33.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Pogo\u0144 Szczecin as the stronger side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Pogo\u0144 Szczecin \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553104 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pogo\u0144 Szczecin 1.88 xG vs Legia Varsovia 1.32 \u2192 Pogo\u0144 Szczecin 44.4%",
"Market: Legia Varsovia ~33.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Pogo\u0144 Szczecin odds \u2191 +1.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.6,
"fair_prob": 44.4,
"label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"market_prob": 33.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.08,
"fair_prob": 26.5,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.52,
"fair_prob": 29.1,
"label": "Legia Varsovia",
"market_prob": 37.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 63.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.4,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Pogo\u0144 Szczecin\u0027s win probability at 44.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 33.8%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.6,
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pogo\u0144 Szczecin 1.88 xG vs Legia Varsovia 1.32 \u2192 Pogo\u0144 Szczecin 44.4%",
"Market: Legia Varsovia ~33.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Pogo\u0144 Szczecin odds \u2191 +1.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.6,
"hero_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin odds lengthened \u2191 +1.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (0/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"Confirmation remains limited (0/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Pogo\u0144 Szczecin more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Pogo\u0144 Szczecin (\u2191 +1.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (0/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.3 pp (at 44.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.3,
"max_prob_pct": 44.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.6,
"lead": "The model rates Pogo\u0144 Szczecin considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 10.6,
"edge_pp": 10.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.08,
"edge_pp": -2.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.52,
"edge_pp": -8.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.1,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Legia Varsovia",
"market_prob_pct": 37.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Legia Varsovia (33.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, Market \u2192 Legia Varsovia, while recent line movement odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.09,
"closing_odds": 2.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.09,
"entry_odds": 2.85,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/13",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.9%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": 1.2,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Legia Varsovia",
"away_team_id": 339,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/339.webp",
"away_team_name": "Legia Varsovia",
"away_team_slug": "legia-warszawa",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1553104,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": 0.67,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"home_team_id": 348,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/348.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"home_team_slug": "pogon-szczecin",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_id": 106,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
"league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-24 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Szczecin",
"venue_name": "Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3922,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0336,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.3762,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3762,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.338
},
"model_prob": 0.2906,
"p_final": 0.3426
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2907,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.2858,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3762,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.338
},
"model_prob": 0.2651,
"p_final": 0.2798
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3782,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3762,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.338
},
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"p_final": 0.3782
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.1,
"ev": -0.2561,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.2906
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.0316,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.2651
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": 0.0934,
"ev": 0.2662,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.4443
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.2,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2662,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0778,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2662,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Pogo\u0144 Szczecin at 44.4% vs market 33.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Pogo\u0144 Szczecin as the stronger side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Pogo\u0144 Szczecin \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553104 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.634,
"draw_prob": 0.2651,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4443,
"over_prob": 0.62,
"total_xg": 3.2,
"under_prob": 0.38,
"xg_diff": 0.56
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1553104,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0778,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2906,
"draw": 0.2651,
"home": 0.4443
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Legia Varsovia",
"home": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.027653,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553104,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-24T20:25:29.359149+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ekstraklasa — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Legia Varsovia | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Cracovia | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Varsovia | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 13 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Cracovia | 9 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 10.4 | 4.1 | +6.3 | 19 |
| 2 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 12.0 | 7.9 | +4.1 | 17 |
| 3 | Legia Varsovia | 9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | +3.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Cracovia | 9 | 10.4 | 7.1 | +3.3 | 8 |
| 5 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 10.0 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 22 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | +2.0 | 12 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 8.4 | 8.2 | +0.2 | 15 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | +0.1 | 9 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 10.5 | 10.6 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 10 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 9.1 | 9.6 | -0.5 | 5 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 8.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 | 6 |
| 12 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 8.1 | 8.9 | -0.8 | 15 |
| 13 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9.6 | 10.8 | -1.2 | 11 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 5.4 | 8.7 | -3.3 | 15 |
| 16 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 7.3 | 10.8 | -3.5 | 13 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7.4 | 11.2 | -3.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 9.9 | 16.5 | -6.6 | 3 |
