Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Paris Saint-Germain Paris Saint-Germain ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.18
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Paris Saint-Germain win · Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Le Mans
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b0e5261bb17aab0db14604f7600b2665a1b7674898ed212344e7c1fd14d9a63b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.1454,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.1825,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.6721,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.1454,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1454,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.369,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.631,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1825,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.1825,
"fair_odds_away": 6.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 6.88,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.48,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 5.48,
"fair_odds_home": 1.49,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.49,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.79,
"home_win_prob": 0.6721,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.6721,
"over_25_prob": 0.607,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.393
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Paris Saint-Germain or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Paris Saint-Germain"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1357,
"edge_gap": 0.4892,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.8076,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 14.5,
"draw": 18.3,
"home": 67.2
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 1.18
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.18,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "Paris Saint-Germain Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.24,
"market_odds": 1.18,
"model_odds": 1.49,
"overround": 4.9,
"prob_edge": -17.6,
"value_pct": -20.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 83.3,
"no_prob": 36.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 63.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 63.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.79,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Paris Saint-Germain or Draw",
"prob": 85.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Paris Saint-Germain or Le Mans",
"prob": 81.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Le Mans",
"prob": 32.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Paris Saint-Germain or Draw",
"pick_prob": 85.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 14.5,
"draw_pct": 18.2,
"home_pct": 67.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Paris Saint-Germain"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.14,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 60.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.14,
"under_prob": 39.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 88.5,
"implied_prob": 7.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Le Mans Win",
"model_prob": 14.5,
"odds": 13.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Le Mans",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 7.33,
"draw": 11.91,
"home": 80.76
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:44:19",
"closing_source": "official",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:25:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 80.76,
"gap_pp": -13.57,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 67.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 11.91,
"gap_pp": 6.36,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 18.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 7.33,
"gap_pp": 7.22,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 14.55
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.18,
"early": 1.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 80.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 80.76,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 8.0,
"early": 8.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 11.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 11.91,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 13.0,
"early": 13.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 7.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 7.33,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 5.4,
"ev": 1.0475,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 19.5,
"market_prob": 0.0513,
"market_prob_pct": 5.1,
"model_prob": 0.105,
"model_prob_pct": 10.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.79,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0886,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0125,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.2515,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.393,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.7485,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.7209
},
"p_final": 0.264,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.462,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0177,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0886,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0177,
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.264
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.217,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.7,
"text": "-21.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.572,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 57.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.572,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 60.7,
"sort_key": 10664.8,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 39.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0251,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.4893,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.5107,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"p_final": 0.4856
},
"p_final": 0.5144,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2021,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0201,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.4893,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"p_final": 0.5144
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.321,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.1,
"text": "-32.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2305,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.1,
"text": "+23.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2305,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 36.9,
"sort_key": 10207.45,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 63.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1236,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.4,
"text": "-12.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1203,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.0,
"text": "+12.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"sort_key": 5296.24,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"alert_team": "Le Mans",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.55,
"hero_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"market_prob_pct": 80.8,
"market_team": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"model_prob_pct": 67.2,
"model_team": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8915,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paris Saint-Germain at 67.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 80.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paris Saint-Germain as the value side (67.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Paris Saint-Germain \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +89% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552780 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +57.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +57.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +57.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +57.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+57.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +89% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8474576271186441,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.55,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 33.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.79,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.79,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.79 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +33%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"steam_team": "Le Mans",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8915,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paris Saint-Germain at 67.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 80.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paris Saint-Germain as the value side (67.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Paris Saint-Germain \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +89% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552780 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +57.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +57.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +57.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +57.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+57.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +89% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8474576271186441,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Paris Saint-Germain 1.79 xG vs Le Mans 1.35 \u2192 Paris Saint-Germain 67.2%",
"Market: Paris Saint-Germain ~80.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Le Mans \u2193 -26.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Paris Saint-Germain, but sharp money moved toward Le Mans.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.55,
"fair_prob": 67.21,
"label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"market_prob": 80.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.34,
"fair_prob": 18.25,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 11.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.21,
"fair_prob": 14.54,
"label": "Le Mans",
"market_prob": 7.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.0,
"fair_prob": 60.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.0,
"fair_prob": 39.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 25.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.31,
"fair_prob": 63.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.31,
"fair_prob": 36.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 67.21,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"market_prob_pct": 80.76,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Le Mans"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Paris Saint-Germain\u0027s win probability at 80.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 67.2%, a difference of 13.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 80.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.6,
"model_prob_pct": 67.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Paris Saint-Germain 1.79 xG vs Le Mans 1.35 \u2192 Paris Saint-Germain 67.2%",
"Market: Paris Saint-Germain ~80.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Le Mans \u2193 -26.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Paris Saint-Germain, but sharp money moved toward Le Mans.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.55,
"hero_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Le Mans odds shortened \u2193 -26.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Le Mans, with odds shortening by 26.1%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Paris Saint-Germain than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Le Mans \u2014 odds shortened by 26.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Paris Saint-Germain than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Le Mans, with odds shortening by 26.1%.",
"Buying interest on Le Mans \u2014 odds shortened by 26.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Paris Saint-Germain more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Le Mans has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 26.1%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/10) supports the current market view on Le Mans."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 49.0 pp (at 67.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 49.0,
"max_prob_pct": 67.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Paris Saint-Germain higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.55,
"edge_pp": -13.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 67.21,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"market_prob_pct": 80.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.34,
"edge_pp": 6.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 11.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.21,
"edge_pp": 7.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 14.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Le Mans",
"market_prob_pct": 7.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Le Mans \u2014 odds shortened by 26.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Paris Saint-Germain (80.8%).",
"However, Le Mans has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -26.1%, 9/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Paris Saint-Germain, Market \u2192 Paris Saint-Germain, Recent sharp money \u2192 Le Mans.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 84.75,
"closing_odds": 1.18,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 84.75,
"entry_odds": 1.18,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -41.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -41.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -34.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -34.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -29.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -29.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 17.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 26.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/10 books synchronized on Le Mans (26.1% steam, score 96) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"23.00",
"18.00",
"13.00"
],
"display": "34.00 \u2192 14.92 \u2192 17.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 28m",
"pick_team": "Le Mans",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "34.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "14.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "17.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
23.0,
13.0,
17.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,10.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "23.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "13.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "23.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "17.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 23.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Le Mans \u2193 -26.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Le Mans",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Le Mans \u2193 -26.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 17.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"open_odds": 23.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Le Mans while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Le Mans",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 17.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"open_odds": 23.0,
"pick_team": "Le Mans",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_team_name": "Le Mans",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "le-mans",
"away_expected_goals": 0.19,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Le Mans",
"away_team_id": 1298,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1298.webp",
"away_team_name": "Le Mans",
"away_team_public_id": "0V1a73IFjGvroi",
"away_team_slug": "le-mans",
"country_code": "FR",
"country_display_name": "France",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_id": 56,
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1552780,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 3,
"home_expected_goals": 1.32,
"home_goal_display": 3,
"home_team_country": "France",
"home_team_display_name": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"home_team_id": 85,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/85.webp",
"home_team_name": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"home_team_public_id": "1kFsFdXyQdTasr",
"home_team_slug": "paris-saint-germain",
"ht.home_team_slug": "paris-saint-germain",
"league_country": "France",
"league_country_display": "France",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_id": 61,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_public_id": "4dWbucryPZLZtA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4xbHXd8qGWmItg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Paris",
"venue_name": "Parc des Princes"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1783,
"best_odd": 13.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": 0.1203,
"implied_prob": 0.0733,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0733,
"draw": 0.1191,
"home": 0.8076
},
"model_prob": 0.1455,
"p_final": 0.0862
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"best_odd": 8.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": 0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.1191,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0733,
"draw": 0.1191,
"home": 0.8076
},
"model_prob": 0.1827,
"p_final": 0.1306
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4778,
"best_odd": 1.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0649,
"ev": -0.1236,
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0733,
"draw": 0.1191,
"home": 0.8076
},
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"p_final": 0.7427
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 13.0,
"edge": 0.0686,
"ev": 0.8915,
"implied_prob": 0.0769,
"model_prob": 0.1455
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 8.0,
"edge": 0.0577,
"ev": 0.4614,
"implied_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob": 0.1827
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.18,
"edge": -0.1756,
"ev": -0.2072,
"implied_prob": 0.8475,
"model_prob": 0.6718
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1772,
"alpha_yes": 0.1772,
"best_no_odd": 1.84,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1431,
"edge_yes": 0.1431,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.321,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1138,
"ev_yes": 0.2305,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0201,
"implied_no": 0.5121,
"implied_yes": 0.4879,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.5107,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"p_final": 0.4856
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.4893,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"p_final": 0.5144
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4856,
"p_final_yes": 0.5144,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.195,
"alpha_under": 0.0886,
"best_over_odd": 1.29,
"best_under_odd": 4.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.25,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.72,
"edge_over": -0.14,
"edge_under": 0.14,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.217,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0989,
"ev_under": 0.572,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0177,
"implied_over": 0.747,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7485,
"implied_under": 0.253,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2515,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.7485,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.7209
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0886,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0177,
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.264
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7209,
"p_final_under": 0.264,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.14,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2305,
"implied_prob": 0.4879,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8915,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.572,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8915,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paris Saint-Germain at 67.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 80.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paris Saint-Germain as the value side (67.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Paris Saint-Germain \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +89% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552780 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +57.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +57.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +57.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +57.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+57.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +89% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8474576271186441,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.631,
"draw_prob": 0.1827,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6718,
"over_prob": 0.607,
"total_xg": 3.14,
"under_prob": 0.393,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1203,
"implied_prob": 0.0733,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.1455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Le Mans",
"slot": "longshot"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.1191,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.1827,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0649,
"ev": -0.1236,
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Paris Saint-Germain"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0251,
"market_prob": 0.4893,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.5107,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"p_final": 0.4856
},
"p_final": 0.5144,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0201,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.4893,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"p_final": 0.5144
}
},
"edge": 0.1431,
"ev": 0.2305,
"implied_prob": 0.4879,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0886,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0125,
"market_prob": 0.2515,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.393,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.7485,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.7209
},
"p_final": 0.264,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0177,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0886,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0177,
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.264
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.14,
"ev": 0.572,
"implied_prob": 0.253,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1552780,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.572,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1455,
"draw": 0.1827,
"home": 0.6718
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2305,
"implied_prob": 0.4879,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2305,
"implied_prob": 0.4879,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Le Mans",
"home": "Paris Saint-Germain"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.224796,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.572,
"implied_prob": 0.253,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.393,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 4,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8474576271186441,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1552780,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:21:59.241230+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Paris Saint-Germain & Le Mans!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Ligue 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mónaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Angers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Estrasburgo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Niza | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Olympique de Marsella | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 5 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 2 | Estrasburgo | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Le Mans | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Lens | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Mónaco | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Paris FC | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Lille | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Rennes | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Olympique de Marsella | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Angers | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 | Lorient | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Niza | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 8.3 | 3.3 | +5.0 | 5 |
| 2 | Lens | 5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | +4.2 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | +3.9 | 8 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | +2.9 | 11 |
| 5 | Olympique de Marsella | 5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 6 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 5.2 | 4.2 | +1.0 | 5 |
| 7 | Mónaco | 5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | +0.8 | 13 |
| 8 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 4 |
| 9 | Lorient | 5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | -0.9 | 5 |
| 10 | Lille | 5 | 3.6 | 4.6 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 11 | Rennes | 5 | 3.7 | 4.9 | -1.2 | 10 |
| 12 | Angers | 5 | 5.1 | 6.4 | -1.3 | 7 |
| 13 | Lyon | 5 | 2.9 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 11 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 5 | 2.6 | 4.4 | -1.8 | 2 |
| 15 | Niza | 5 | 1.5 | 3.6 | -2.1 | 5 |
| 16 | Estrasburgo | 5 | 4.8 | 7.7 | -2.9 | 7 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 5 | 3.1 | 6.1 | -3.0 | 6 |
| 18 | Le Mans | 5 | 5.2 | 8.6 | -3.4 | 6 |
