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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
PSV Eindhoven win · PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Sparta Róterdam
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "123894600f5a662a90e37df6a874523e4b77867693f67634f5725c488a78053e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.1081,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.1657,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.7263,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.0,
"away_win_prob": 0.1081,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1081,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.415,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.585,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1657,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.1657,
"fair_odds_away": 9.25,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 9.25,
"fair_odds_draw": 6.04,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 6.04,
"fair_odds_home": 1.38,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.38,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.7263,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.7263,
"over_25_prob": 0.66,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.34
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : PSV Eindhoven and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "PSV Eindhoven"
},
"away_xg": 1.0,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1238,
"edge_gap": 0.56,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.8496,
"model_prob": 0.7259,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 10.8,
"draw": 16.6,
"home": 72.6
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.13
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.13,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "PSV Eindhoven Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.18,
"market_odds": 1.13,
"model_odds": 1.38,
"overround": 4.2,
"prob_edge": -16.0,
"value_pct": -18.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 63.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 90.9,
"no_prob": 41.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 58.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 58.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.0,
"home_expected": 2.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "PSV Eindhoven or Draw",
"prob": 89.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "PSV Eindhoven or Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"prob": 83.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"prob": 27.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "PSV Eindhoven or Draw",
"pick_prob": 89.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 10.8,
"draw_pct": 16.6,
"home_pct": 72.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "PSV Eindhoven"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.4,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 3.6,
"over_prob": 66.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 66.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.4,
"under_prob": 34.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 78.8,
"implied_prob": 9.3,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 16.6,
"odds": 10.77
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 6.12,
"draw": 8.91,
"home": 84.96
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:59:54",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:31:04",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "PSV Eindhoven",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 84.96,
"gap_pp": -12.38,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 72.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 8.91,
"gap_pp": 7.67,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 16.58
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 6.12,
"gap_pp": 4.71,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 10.83
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 84.26,
"gap_pp": -18.26,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 66.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.74,
"gap_pp": 18.26,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 34.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.13,
"early": 1.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 84.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 84.96,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 10.77,
"early": 10.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 8.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 8.91,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 15.68,
"early": 15.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 6.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 6.12,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.13,
"early": 1.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 84.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 84.26,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 6.05,
"early": 6.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 15.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 15.74,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betfair",
"best_odds": 20.0,
"edge": 3.0,
"ev": 60.2,
"label": "1-0",
"probability": 8.0
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.3,
"ev": 0.152,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "2-0",
"market_odds": 12.0,
"market_prob": 0.0833,
"market_prob_pct": 8.3,
"model_prob": 0.096,
"model_prob_pct": 9.6,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.675,
"edge": 0.0305,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.2002,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.34,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4792,
"best_odd": 1.17,
"edge": -0.067,
"ev": -0.1426,
"implied_prob": 0.7998,
"model_prob": 0.66,
"p_final": 0.7328
},
"p_final": 0.2306,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5895,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0782,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"best_odd": 4.675,
"edge": 0.0305,
"ev": 0.0782,
"implied_prob": 0.2002,
"model_prob": 0.34,
"p_final": 0.2306
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.208,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.87,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 87.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.87,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 66.0,
"sort_key": 10783.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 34.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1083,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.8496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1063,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.6,
"text": "+10.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.7259,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1797,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"sort_key": 5285.04,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0054,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4026,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.415,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.415,
"p_final": 0.408
},
"p_final": 0.408,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0455,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0617,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5951,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0855,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.585,
"p_final": 0.59
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0168,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0816,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.2,
"text": "-8.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0168,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 41.5,
"sort_key": 5213.44,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 58.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 9.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "12/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "12/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +50.0%",
"alert_team": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.33,
"hero_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"market_prob_pct": 85.0,
"market_team": "PSV Eindhoven",
"model_prob_pct": 72.6,
"model_team": "PSV Eindhoven",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (PSV Eindhoven)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (PSV Eindhoven)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.87,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.87,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates PSV Eindhoven at 72.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 85.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies PSV Eindhoven as the value side (72.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "PSV Eindhoven",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +87.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +87.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +87.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+87.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (PSV Eindhoven).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1083,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7259,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8849557522123894,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1797,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 77.8,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 78% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.4"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.4
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "12/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (78%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.33,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.33,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.0,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 78.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.4,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.4,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.00 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +78%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 50.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +50.0%",
"steam_team": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (PSV Eindhoven)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (PSV Eindhoven)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.87,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.87,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates PSV Eindhoven at 72.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 85.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies PSV Eindhoven as the value side (72.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "PSV Eindhoven",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +87.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +87.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +87.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+87.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (PSV Eindhoven).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1083,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7259,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8849557522123894,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1797,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 77.8,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 78% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.4"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.4
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: PSV Eindhoven 2.40 xG vs Sparta R\u00f3terdam 1.00 \u2192 PSV Eindhoven 72.6%",
"Market: PSV Eindhoven ~85.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Sparta R\u00f3terdam odds \u2191 +50.0%"
],
"one_liner": "PSV Eindhoven projects stronger on expected goals (+1.40 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.33,
"fair_prob": 72.63,
"label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"market_prob": 84.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.66,
"fair_prob": 16.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 8.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.69,
"fair_prob": 10.81,
"label": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"market_prob": 6.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.36,
"fair_prob": 66.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 80.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.36,
"fair_prob": 34.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 19.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.63,
"fair_prob": 58.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.63,
"fair_prob": 41.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 72.63,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "PSV Eindhoven",
"market_prob_pct": 84.96,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates PSV Eindhoven\u0027s win probability at 85.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 72.6%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 85.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.4,
"model_prob_pct": 72.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "PSV Eindhoven \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: PSV Eindhoven 2.40 xG vs Sparta R\u00f3terdam 1.00 \u2192 PSV Eindhoven 72.6%",
"Market: PSV Eindhoven ~85.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Sparta R\u00f3terdam odds \u2191 +50.0%"
],
"one_liner": "PSV Eindhoven projects stronger on expected goals (+1.40 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.33,
"hero_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam odds lengthened \u2191 +50.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sparta R\u00f3terdam has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 50.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about PSV Eindhoven than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Sparta R\u00f3terdam \u2014 odds lengthened by 50.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about PSV Eindhoven than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Sparta R\u00f3terdam has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 50.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sparta R\u00f3terdam \u2014 odds lengthened by 50.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors PSV Eindhoven more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Sparta R\u00f3terdam has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 50.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/14) supports the current market view on Sparta R\u00f3terdam."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 56.1 pp (at 72.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 56.1,
"max_prob_pct": 72.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices PSV Eindhoven higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.33,
"edge_pp": -12.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 72.63,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"market_prob_pct": 84.96,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.66,
"edge_pp": 7.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 16.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 8.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.69,
"edge_pp": 4.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 10.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"market_prob_pct": 6.12,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sparta R\u00f3terdam \u2014 odds lengthened by 50.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers PSV Eindhoven (85.0%).",
"However, Sparta R\u00f3terdam has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +50.0%, 12/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"PSV Eindhoven \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 88.5,
"closing_odds": 1.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 88.5,
"entry_odds": 1.13,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 12,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +50.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 50.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +45.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 45.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 15.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +50.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 50.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 16m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"12/14 books lengthened Sparta R\u00f3terdam together (50.0% drift, score 65) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 50.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"15.68",
"12.84",
"10.00"
],
"display": "17.50 \u2192 9.06 \u2192 15.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 16m",
"pick_team": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "17.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "9.06"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "15.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
10.0,
15.68,
15.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "10.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "10.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "15.68"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "15.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 10.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Sparta R\u00f3terdam odds \u2191 +50.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Sparta R\u00f3terdam odds \u2191 +50.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 15.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +50.0%",
"open_odds": 10.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"current_odds": 15.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +50.0%",
"open_odds": 10.0,
"pick_team": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_team_name": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sparta-rotterdam",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"away_team_id": 426,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/426.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"away_team_public_id": "3jtjUad0wVhlG8",
"away_team_slug": "sparta-rotterdam",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1552169,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 3,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 3,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "PSV Eindhoven",
"home_team_id": 197,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/197.webp",
"home_team_name": "PSV Eindhoven",
"home_team_public_id": "3IoClmvwVmWMj1",
"home_team_slug": "psv-eindhoven",
"ht.home_team_slug": "psv-eindhoven",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_id": 88,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
"league_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_public_id": "5zMr11kQIxzcev",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 18:00:00",
"public_id": "0WKSDJIXGtqUak",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Eindhoven",
"venue_name": "Philips Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1859,
"best_odd": 15.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": 0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.0612,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0612,
"draw": 0.0891,
"home": 0.8496
},
"model_prob": 0.1083,
"p_final": 0.07
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.177,
"best_odd": 10.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": 0.1063,
"implied_prob": 0.0891,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0612,
"draw": 0.0891,
"home": 0.8496
},
"model_prob": 0.1658,
"p_final": 0.1027
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4886,
"best_odd": 1.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0605,
"ev": -0.1083,
"implied_prob": 0.8496,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0612,
"draw": 0.0891,
"home": 0.8496
},
"model_prob": 0.7259,
"p_final": 0.7892
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 15.68,
"edge": 0.0445,
"ev": 0.698,
"implied_prob": 0.0638,
"model_prob": 0.1083
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 10.77,
"edge": 0.073,
"ev": 0.7861,
"implied_prob": 0.0929,
"model_prob": 0.1658
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.13,
"edge": -0.1591,
"ev": -0.1798,
"implied_prob": 0.885,
"model_prob": 0.7259
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4328,
"alpha_yes": 0.5951,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0163,
"edge_yes": -0.0163,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0168,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0617,
"ev_yes": -0.0816,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0855,
"implied_no": 0.3987,
"implied_yes": 0.6013,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.415,
"p_final": 0.408
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5951,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0855,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.585,
"p_final": 0.59
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.408,
"p_final_yes": 0.59,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4792,
"alpha_under": 0.2178,
"best_over_odd": 1.2,
"best_under_odd": 5.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.675,
"edge_over": -0.1436,
"edge_under": 0.1436,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.208,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1426,
"ev_under": 0.87,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0782,
"implied_over": 0.8036,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7998,
"implied_under": 0.1964,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2002,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4792,
"best_odd": 1.17,
"edge": -0.067,
"ev": -0.1426,
"implied_prob": 0.7998,
"model_prob": 0.66,
"p_final": 0.7328
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"best_odd": 4.675,
"edge": 0.0305,
"ev": 0.0782,
"implied_prob": 0.2002,
"model_prob": 0.34,
"p_final": 0.2306
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7328,
"p_final_under": 0.2306,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.4,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.87,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.87,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.87,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (PSV Eindhoven)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.87,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.87,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates PSV Eindhoven at 72.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 85.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies PSV Eindhoven as the value side (72.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "PSV Eindhoven",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +87.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +87.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +87.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+87.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (PSV Eindhoven).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1083,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7259,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8849557522123894,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1797,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 77.8,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 78% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.4"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.4
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.585,
"draw_prob": 0.1658,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.7259,
"over_prob": 0.66,
"total_xg": 3.4,
"under_prob": 0.34,
"xg_diff": 1.4
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.87,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1964,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.34,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.87,
"implied_prob": 0.1964,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.34,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "under",
"slot": "longshot"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1063,
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"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0605,
"ev": -0.1083,
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"max_ev_side": "draw",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "PSV Eindhoven"
},
"btts": {
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0054,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0617,
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"p_final": 0.408
},
"p_final": 0.408,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0617,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0074,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": 0.0168,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.675,
"edge": 0.0305,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4792,
"best_odd": 1.17,
"edge": -0.067,
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},
"p_final": 0.2306,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0782,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.0305,
"ev": 0.0782,
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"p_final": 0.2306
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1436,
"ev": 0.87,
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"model_prob": 0.34,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1552169,
"match_regime": {
"action": "high_risk",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "longshot",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_longshot_only",
"max_valid_ev": 0.87,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.1,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1083,
"draw": 0.1658,
"home": 0.7259
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sparta R\u00f3terdam",
"home": "PSV Eindhoven"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1083,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7259,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8849557522123894,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1797,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1552169,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T19:38:13.509488+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Eredivisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Róterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 7 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 17 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 16 |
| 3 | Ajax | 7 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Twente | 7 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 7 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Utrecht | 7 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 13 | Sparta Róterdam | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 | Willem II | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Telstar | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 12.0 | 2.7 | +9.3 | 16 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 11.3 | 3.8 | +7.5 | 17 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 12.4 | 5.5 | +6.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5.6 | 1.5 | +4.1 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 5.7 | 3.1 | +2.6 | 14 |
| 6 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 6.9 | 4.9 | +2.0 | 8 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 4.8 | 3.9 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 6.7 | 7.7 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 9 | Telstar | 7 | 6.1 | 7.1 | -1.0 | 5 |
| 10 | FC Groningen | 7 | 7.3 | 8.6 | -1.3 | 11 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 7 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 9 |
| 12 | Willem II | 7 | 4.6 | 6.7 | -2.1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sparta Róterdam | 7 | 5.8 | 8.0 | -2.2 | 5 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 4.1 | 6.4 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 5.3 | 8.2 | -2.9 | 5 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 7 | 5.8 | 11.2 | -5.4 | 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 3.2 | 9.3 | -6.1 | 2 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 3.7 | 10.7 | -7.0 | 13 |
