Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 De Graafschap Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · FC Eindhoven 2–2 De Graafschap
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "cf88bb22e111552984d055bada9c986a7f789196f6ed761ef064204148d06dac",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.71,
"away_win_prob": 0.4417,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.375,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.625,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2637,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.26,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.79,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.39,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.2946,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.595,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.406
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : FC Eindhoven or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "FC Eindhoven"
},
"away_xg": 1.71,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "De Graafschap",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0244,
"edge_gap": 0.1473,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4175,
"model_prob": 0.4419,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 44.2,
"draw": 26.4,
"home": 29.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.28
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.28,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "De Graafschap Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.4,
"market_odds": 2.28,
"model_odds": 2.26,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": 0.4,
"value_pct": 0.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 81.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 37.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 62.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 62.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.71,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FC Eindhoven or Draw",
"prob": 55.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FC Eindhoven or De Graafschap",
"prob": 73.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or De Graafschap",
"prob": 70.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "FC Eindhoven or De Graafschap",
"pick_prob": 73.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 44.2,
"draw_pct": 26.4,
"home_pct": 29.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "De Graafschap"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.08,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 59.5,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.08,
"under_prob": 40.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 0.9,
"implied_prob": 43.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "De Graafschap Win",
"model_prob": 44.2,
"odds": 2.28
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "De Graafschap",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 41.75,
"draw": 25.66,
"home": 32.6
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 17:56:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 17:30:38",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FC Eindhoven",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.6,
"gap_pp": -3.14,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 29.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.66,
"gap_pp": 0.69,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.75,
"gap_pp": 2.44,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 44.19
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.49,
"gap_pp": -4.99,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 59.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.51,
"gap_pp": 5.09,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 40.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.92,
"early": 2.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.71,
"early": 3.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.66,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.28,
"early": 2.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.75,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.49,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.67,
"early": 2.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.51,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.0,
"ev": -0.082,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.108,
"model_prob_pct": 10.8,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 6.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2522,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"edge": 0.0167,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.3398,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.406,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3474,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.1074,
"implied_prob": 0.6602,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"p_final": 0.6375
},
"p_final": 0.3565,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1043,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0303,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2522,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": -0.0303,
"implied_prob": 0.3398,
"model_prob": 0.406,
"p_final": 0.3565
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1254,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.5,
"text": "-12.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1693,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.9,
"text": "+16.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1693,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 59.5,
"sort_key": 10302.37,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 40.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2595,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0127,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3262,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.375,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2595,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0376,
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.3389
},
"p_final": 0.3389,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.065,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0376,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3568,
"best_odd": 1.375,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.6738,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.6564
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1025,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.2,
"text": "+10.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.125,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.5,
"text": "-12.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1025,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 37.5,
"sort_key": 10092.25,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 62.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.024,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.024,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4419,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0075,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "De Graafschap",
"sort_key": 1794.0,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 812.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"alert_team": "FC Eindhoven",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.14,
"hero_label": "FC Eindhoven",
"market_prob_pct": 41.8,
"market_team": "De Graafschap",
"model_prob_pct": 44.2,
"model_team": "De Graafschap",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (De Graafschap)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (De Graafschap)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1693,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1693,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates De Graafschap at 44.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies De Graafschap as the value side (44.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "De Graafschap",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (De Graafschap).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4419,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0075,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 26.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.14,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.71,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.71,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.71 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +27%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"steam_team": "FC Eindhoven",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (De Graafschap).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (De Graafschap)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (De Graafschap)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1693,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1693,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates De Graafschap at 44.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies De Graafschap as the value side (44.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "De Graafschap",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (De Graafschap).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4419,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0075,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 26.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Eindhoven 1.37 xG vs De Graafschap 1.71 \u2192 De Graafschap 44.2%",
"Market: De Graafschap ~41.8% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Eindhoven odds \u2191 +3.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean De Graafschap with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.14,
"fair_prob": 29.46,
"label": "FC Eindhoven",
"market_prob": 32.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.71,
"fair_prob": 26.37,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.42,
"fair_prob": 44.17,
"label": "De Graafschap",
"market_prob": 41.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.43,
"fair_prob": 59.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.53,
"fair_prob": 40.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.84,
"fair_prob": 62.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.84,
"fair_prob": 37.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FC Eindhoven",
"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "FC Eindhoven"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "De Graafschap",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 44.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "De Graafschap \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Eindhoven 1.37 xG vs De Graafschap 1.71 \u2192 De Graafschap 44.2%",
"Market: De Graafschap ~41.8% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Eindhoven odds \u2191 +3.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean De Graafschap with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.14,
"hero_label": "FC Eindhoven",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "FC Eindhoven odds lengthened \u2191 +3.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on FC Eindhoven (\u2191 +3.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.7 pp (at 44.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.7,
"max_prob_pct": 44.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "FC Eindhoven",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.14,
"edge_pp": -3.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FC Eindhoven",
"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.71,
"edge_pp": 0.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.42,
"edge_pp": 2.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "De Graafschap",
"market_prob_pct": 41.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers De Graafschap (41.8%).",
"FC Eindhoven odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.7%, 2/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"De Graafschap \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.25,
"closing_odds": 2.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.25,
"entry_odds": 2.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 106h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on FC Eindhoven (swing 2.92 \u2192 2.56 \u2192 2.80) \u2014 net 3.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.92",
"2.81",
"2.70"
],
"display": "2.92 \u2192 2.56 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 106h 17m",
"pick_team": "FC Eindhoven",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.56"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
2.92,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "FC Eindhoven",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FC Eindhoven",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "FC Eindhoven",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_team_name": "FC Eindhoven",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "de-graafschap",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "De Graafschap",
"away_team_id": 199,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/199.webp",
"away_team_name": "De Graafschap",
"away_team_public_id": "3dQgipeQsi1Jl8",
"away_team_slug": "de-graafschap",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1551823,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "FC Eindhoven",
"home_team_id": 422,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/422.webp",
"home_team_name": "FC Eindhoven",
"home_team_public_id": "1I7cf8HRxpmq1v",
"home_team_slug": "fc-eindhoven",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fc-eindhoven",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_id": 89,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/89.webp",
"league_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_public_id": "3fIkfoWJytykc5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 18:00:00",
"public_id": "4EyjOEZGm4BoPS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Eindhoven",
"venue_name": "Jan Louwers Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4335,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.024,
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4175,
"draw": 0.2566,
"home": 0.326
},
"model_prob": 0.4419,
"p_final": 0.4281
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2969,
"best_odd": 3.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0021,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2566,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4175,
"draw": 0.2566,
"home": 0.326
},
"model_prob": 0.2635,
"p_final": 0.2586
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4288,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.0875,
"implied_prob": 0.326,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4175,
"draw": 0.2566,
"home": 0.326
},
"model_prob": 0.2946,
"p_final": 0.3125
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": 0.0075,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.4419
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.71,
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0224,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"model_prob": 0.2635
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": -0.0479,
"ev": -0.1398,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.2946
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2595,
"alpha_yes": 0.3568,
"best_no_odd": 2.94,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0484,
"edge_yes": -0.0484,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1025,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0376,
"ev_yes": -0.125,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0975,
"implied_no": 0.3266,
"implied_yes": 0.6734,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2595,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0376,
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.3389
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3568,
"best_odd": 1.375,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.6738,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.6564
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3389,
"p_final_yes": 0.6564,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3474,
"alpha_under": 0.2522,
"best_over_odd": 1.47,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.72,
"edge_over": -0.0643,
"edge_under": 0.0653,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1254,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1074,
"ev_under": 0.1693,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0303,
"implied_over": 0.6593,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6602,
"implied_under": 0.3407,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3398,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3474,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.1074,
"implied_prob": 0.6602,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"p_final": 0.6375
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2522,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": -0.0303,
"implied_prob": 0.3398,
"model_prob": 0.406,
"p_final": 0.3565
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6375,
"p_final_under": 0.3565,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.08,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1693,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1693,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1693,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (De Graafschap)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1693,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1693,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates De Graafschap at 44.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies De Graafschap as the value side (44.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "De Graafschap",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (De Graafschap).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4419,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0075,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 26.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.625,
"draw_prob": 0.2635,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4419,
"over_prob": 0.595,
"total_xg": 3.08,
"under_prob": 0.406,
"xg_diff": 0.34
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.024,
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4419,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "De Graafschap"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2595,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.3262,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.375,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2595,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0376,
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.3389
},
"p_final": 0.3389,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0376,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3568,
"best_odd": 1.375,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.6738,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.6564
}
},
"edge": 0.0484,
"ev": 0.1025,
"implied_prob": 0.3266,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2522,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"edge": 0.0167,
"market_prob": 0.3398,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.406,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3474,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.1074,
"implied_prob": 0.6602,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"p_final": 0.6375
},
"p_final": 0.3565,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0303,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2522,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": -0.0303,
"implied_prob": 0.3398,
"model_prob": 0.406,
"p_final": 0.3565
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0653,
"ev": 0.1693,
"implied_prob": 0.3407,
"model_prob": 0.406,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551823,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1693,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.2635,
"home": 0.2946
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "De Graafschap",
"home": "FC Eindhoven"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.065299,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1693,
"implied_prob": 0.3407,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.406,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4419,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0075,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551823,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T17:56:26.274661+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para FC Eindhoven & De Graafschap!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Eerste Divisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Emmen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | MVV | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | FC OSS | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 9 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 22 |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 9 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Jong AZ | 9 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | FC Volendam | 9 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Almere City FC | 9 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 6 | Waalwijk | 9 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 | Emmen | 9 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 8 | NAC Breda | 9 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Vitesse | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Jong PSV | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 9 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | MVV | 9 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 8 |
| 18 | FC OSS | 9 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 |
| 20 | Roda | 9 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 9 | 12.6 | 6.8 | +5.8 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Volendam | 9 | 10.7 | 6.4 | +4.3 | 12 |
| 3 | NAC Breda | 9 | 10.5 | 7.1 | +3.4 | 14 |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 9 | 10.0 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 5 | Emmen | 9 | 10.4 | 7.2 | +3.2 | 16 |
| 6 | Den Bosch | 9 | 10.5 | 7.8 | +2.7 | 8 |
| 7 | Jong PSV | 9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | +2.7 | 12 |
| 8 | MVV | 9 | 7.0 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 16 |
| 9 | Vitesse | 9 | 9.3 | 7.8 | +1.5 | 14 |
| 10 | Roda | 9 | 9.6 | 8.5 | +1.1 | 15 |
| 11 | Jong AZ | 9 | 7.7 | 6.6 | +1.1 | 13 |
| 12 | FC OSS | 9 | 8.1 | 8.7 | -0.6 | 9 |
| 13 | Waalwijk | 9 | 5.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | 14 |
| 14 | VVV Venlo | 9 | 8.1 | 10.3 | -2.2 | 18 |
| 15 | De Graafschap | 9 | 7.0 | 9.2 | -2.2 | 8 |
| 16 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 9.8 | 13.2 | -3.4 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 7.0 | 11.2 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 18 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 4.1 | 9.0 | -4.9 | 9 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 9 | 6.0 | 11.9 | -5.9 | 8 |
| 20 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | 4.4 | 11.0 | -6.6 | 11 |
