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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Jong PSV Helmond Sport ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Helmond Sport win · Helmond Sport 3–1 Jong PSV
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "e66fa3a635105e0b24b51a196b0872e3c944d90fc1422149e66d62dc684d6667",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.4525,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2824,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.21,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.54,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.77,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.15,
"home_win_prob": 0.2651,
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"over_25_prob": 0.509,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.491
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Jong PSV",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Jong PSV",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Jong PSV"
},
"away_xg": 1.56,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Jong PSV",
"confidence": 45.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Jong PSV",
"edge": 0.0457,
"edge_gap": 0.17,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4067,
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 45.2,
"draw": 28.2,
"home": 26.5
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Jong PSV"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.34
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.34,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Jong PSV Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.46,
"market_odds": 2.34,
"model_odds": 2.21,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": 2.5,
"value_pct": 5.9,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 79.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 68.3,
"no_prob": 44.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 55.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 55.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.56,
"home_expected": 1.15,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.9
},
{
"away": 1,
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},
{
"away": 2,
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{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Helmond Sport or Draw",
"prob": 54.7
},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 71.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 73.4
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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},
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"draw_pct": 28.2,
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},
"over_under": {
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.71,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
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"model_prob": 28.2,
"odds": 3.87
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.67,
"draw": 24.59,
"home": 34.73
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 17:59:32",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 17:30:42",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Helmond Sport",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.67,
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"model_pct": 45.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.48,
"gap_pp": -14.58,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
"closing": 3.87,
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{
"closing": 2.34,
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{
"closing": 1.45,
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{
"closing": 2.75,
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"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
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"lean_card": {
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"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "0-2",
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{
"label": "1-0",
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}
]
},
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"p_final": 0.3895,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2467,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.7,
"text": "-24.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3502,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 11,
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0265,
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"model_prob": 0.445,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": 0.0007,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
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"p_final": 0.3639,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.8,
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"risk_adj_ev": 0.0007,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.339,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.555,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2816,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 28.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2063,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.6,
"text": "-20.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2816,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 44.5,
"sort_key": 10253.44,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 55.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0035,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0035,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Jong PSV",
"sort_key": 2199.72,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"alert_team": "Helmond Sport",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.22,
"hero_label": "Helmond Sport",
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"market_team": "Jong PSV",
"model_prob_pct": 45.2,
"model_team": "Jong PSV",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3502,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong PSV at 45.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong PSV as the value side (45.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong PSV",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV).",
"Decision strength: 8.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "11/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.22,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.56,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.15,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.56,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.15 \u00b7 Away xG 1.56 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"steam_team": "Helmond Sport",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3502,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong PSV at 45.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong PSV as the value side (45.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong PSV",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV).",
"Decision strength: 8.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Helmond Sport 1.15 xG vs Jong PSV 1.56 \u2192 Jong PSV 45.2%",
"Market: Jong PSV ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Helmond Sport odds \u2191 +14.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Jong PSV projects stronger on expected goals (+0.41 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.22,
"fair_prob": 26.51,
"label": "Helmond Sport",
"market_prob": 34.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob": 28.24,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob": 45.25,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob": 40.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.55,
"fair_prob": 50.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.55,
"fair_prob": 49.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.81,
"fair_prob": 55.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.81,
"fair_prob": 44.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.51,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Helmond Sport",
"market_prob_pct": 34.73,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Helmond Sport"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Helmond Sport\u0027s win probability at 34.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 26.5%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Jong PSV",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.5,
"model_prob_pct": 45.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Jong PSV \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Helmond Sport 1.15 xG vs Jong PSV 1.56 \u2192 Jong PSV 45.2%",
"Market: Jong PSV ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Helmond Sport odds \u2191 +14.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Jong PSV projects stronger on expected goals (+0.41 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.22,
"hero_label": "Helmond Sport",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Helmond Sport odds lengthened \u2191 +14.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Helmond Sport. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Helmond Sport.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Helmond Sport. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Helmond Sport."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Helmond Sport above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Helmond Sport (\u2191 +14.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/14) supports the current market view on Helmond Sport."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.0 pp (at 45.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.0,
"max_prob_pct": 45.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Helmond Sport",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Helmond Sport higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.22,
"edge_pp": -8.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.51,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Helmond Sport",
"market_prob_pct": 34.73,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.65,
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.58,
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Jong PSV",
"market_prob_pct": 40.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Helmond Sport.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Jong PSV (40.7%).",
"Helmond Sport odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.9%, 11/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Jong PSV \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.5,
"closing_odds": 2.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.5,
"entry_odds": 2.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 92h 31m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Helmond Sport (14.9%, 11/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.74",
"2.54",
"2.35"
],
"display": "2.74 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 92h 31m",
"pick_team": "Helmond Sport",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.74"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.74,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.74"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 11/14 sportsbooks on Helmond Sport",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Helmond Sport",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Helmond Sport",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Helmond Sport",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_team_name": "Helmond Sport",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Jong PSV",
"away_team_id": 411,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/411.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jong PSV",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Jong PSV",
"away_team_public_id": "08XBadEwEl50Ee",
"away_team_slug": "jong-psv",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1551789,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Helmond Sport",
"home_team_id": 424,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/424.webp",
"home_team_name": "Helmond Sport",
"home_team_public_id": "475LpAGs7Lh4Wc",
"home_team_slug": "helmond-sport",
"ht.home_team_slug": "helmond-sport",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_id": 89,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/89.webp",
"league_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_public_id": "3fIkfoWJytykc5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 18:00:00",
"public_id": "2SiuxqZeXLlU4Z",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Helmond",
"venue_name": "GS Staalwerken Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4192,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2459,
"home": 0.3473
},
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"p_final": 0.4259
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2836,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0082,
"implied_prob": 0.2459,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2459,
"home": 0.3473
},
"model_prob": 0.2824,
"p_final": 0.2563
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3945,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1371,
"implied_prob": 0.3473,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2459,
"home": 0.3473
},
"model_prob": 0.2652,
"p_final": 0.3149
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.4524
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2824
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": -0.0998,
"ev": -0.2734,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.2652
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2465,
"alpha_yes": 0.339,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.43,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1081,
"edge_yes": -0.1081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2816,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0007,
"ev_yes": -0.2063,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1234,
"implied_no": 0.3369,
"implied_yes": 0.6631,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2465,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": 0.0007,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.445,
"p_final": 0.3639
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.339,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.555,
"p_final": 0.6262
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.3639,
"p_final_yes": 0.6262,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3237,
"alpha_under": 0.2354,
"best_over_odd": 1.48,
"best_under_odd": 2.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.58,
"edge_over": -0.1355,
"edge_under": 0.1355,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2467,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1377,
"ev_under": 0.3502,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0048,
"implied_over": 0.6445,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6418,
"implied_under": 0.3555,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3582,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3237,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.043,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.6418,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.5988
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0313,
"ev": 0.0048,
"implied_prob": 0.3582,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.3895
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5988,
"p_final_under": 0.3895,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3502,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3502,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3502,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3502,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jong PSV at 45.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jong PSV as the value side (45.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jong PSV",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jong PSV).",
"Decision strength: 8.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.555,
"draw_prob": 0.2824,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4524,
"over_prob": 0.509,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"under_prob": 0.491,
"xg_diff": 0.41
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Jong PSV"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2465,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0265,
"market_prob": 0.3373,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.445,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2465,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": 0.0007,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.445,
"p_final": 0.3639
},
"p_final": 0.3639,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0007,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.339,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.555,
"p_final": 0.6262
}
},
"edge": 0.1081,
"ev": 0.2816,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"model_prob": 0.445,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0313,
"market_prob": 0.3582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.491,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3237,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.043,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.6418,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.5988
},
"p_final": 0.3895,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0048,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0313,
"ev": 0.0048,
"implied_prob": 0.3582,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.3895
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1355,
"ev": 0.3502,
"implied_prob": 0.3555,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551789,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3502,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4524,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.2652
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2816,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.445,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2816,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.445,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jong PSV",
"home": "Helmond Sport"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.171948,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3502,
"implied_prob": 0.3555,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.491,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4524,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0586,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551789,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T17:59:33.900716+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Eerste Divisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | MVV | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Roda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Emmen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 19 | FC OSS | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 8 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 21 |
| 2 | Jong AZ | 9 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 15 |
| 4 | FC Volendam | 8 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Almere City FC | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Waalwijk | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | Emmen | 8 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | NAC Breda | 8 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Jong PSV | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Vitesse | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 15 | MVV | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 16 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 7 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | Roda | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 19 | FC OSS | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Volendam | 8 | 9.6 | 5.1 | +4.5 | 12 |
| 2 | Heracles Almelo | 8 | 10.1 | 6.0 | +4.1 | 21 |
| 3 | Emmen | 8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | +3.0 | 15 |
| 4 | NAC Breda | 8 | 9.8 | 6.9 | +2.9 | 13 |
| 5 | MVV | 8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | +2.9 | 16 |
| 6 | Jong PSV | 9 | 8.5 | 5.7 | +2.8 | 12 |
| 7 | Den Bosch | 7 | 9.6 | 7.0 | +2.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 8 | 8.0 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 9 | Jong AZ | 9 | 6.9 | 5.7 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 10 | Almere City FC | 8 | 7.2 | 6.1 | +1.1 | 16 |
| 11 | Roda | 8 | 8.1 | 7.2 | +0.9 | 15 |
| 12 | Waalwijk | 8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | +0.2 | 13 |
| 13 | FC OSS | 8 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 14 | De Graafschap | 7 | 5.4 | 7.6 | -2.2 | 4 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 8.4 | 10.8 | -2.4 | 8 |
| 16 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5.7 | 8.9 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 2.6 | 6.2 | -3.6 | 8 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 5.4 | 9.6 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 19 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 3.9 | 8.2 | -4.3 | 10 |
| 20 | Dordrecht | 8 | 5.0 | 10.7 | -5.7 | 7 |
