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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sileks Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Sileks 0–0 Tikveš
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Tikve\u0161",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Tikve\u0161"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sileks",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.02,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4004,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.22
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.22,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.5,
"market_odds": 2.22,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -7.0,
"value_pct": -15.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sileks or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sileks or Tikve\u0161",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Tikve\u0161",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sileks or Tikve\u0161",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Sileks"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -15.6,
"implied_prob": 45.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Sileks Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 2.22
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Tikve\u0161",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.34,
"draw": 29.63,
"home": 40.04
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 14:01:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 13:32:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sileks",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.04,
"gap_pp": -2.0,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.63,
"gap_pp": -0.03,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.34,
"gap_pp": 2.04,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.06,
"gap_pp": -0.86,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.94,
"gap_pp": 0.86,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.04,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.0,
"early": 3.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.63,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.93,
"early": 2.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.34,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.89,
"early": 1.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.06,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.82,
"early": 1.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.94,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0042,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.4986,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0042,
"ev": -0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4971
},
"p_final": 0.5029,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0469,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0747,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5029
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.089,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.9,
"text": "-8.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2466,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0006,
"edge_pp": -0.1,
"market_prob": 0.5463,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2242,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.4537,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4542
},
"p_final": 0.5457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0942,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0913,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2466,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.0913,
"implied_prob": 0.5463,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5457
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0652,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.5,
"text": "-6.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0589,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0589,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1785.275,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1306,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.1,
"text": "-13.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4004,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0851,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.5,
"text": "-8.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1557,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sileks",
"sort_key": 1778.725,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.05,
"hero_label": "Tikve\u0161",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"market_team": "Sileks",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Sileks",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sileks)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sileks)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sileks at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sileks as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sileks",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sileks).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1306,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4004,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1557,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.05,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Sileks",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sileks)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sileks)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sileks at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sileks as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sileks",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sileks).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1306,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4004,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1557,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sileks 1.36 xG vs Tikve\u0161 1.24 \u2192 Sileks 38.0%",
"Market: Sileks ~40.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Sileks +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sileks with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.03,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Sileks",
"market_prob": 40.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.04,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.05,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Tikve\u0161",
"market_prob": 30.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.21,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.21,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.25,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.25,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Tikve\u0161",
"market_prob_pct": 30.34,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Sileks"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sileks",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Sileks \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sileks 1.36 xG vs Tikve\u0161 1.24 \u2192 Sileks 38.0%",
"Market: Sileks ~40.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Sileks +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sileks with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.05,
"hero_label": "Tikve\u0161",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Tikve\u0161",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.03,
"edge_pp": -2.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sileks",
"market_prob_pct": 40.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.04,
"edge_pp": -0.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.63,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.05,
"edge_pp": 2.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Tikve\u0161",
"market_prob_pct": 30.34,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sileks (40.0%).",
"Sileks \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.13,
"closing_odds": 2.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.13,
"entry_odds": 2.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Sileks",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Sileks",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tikves",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tikve\u0161",
"away_team_id": 4348,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4348.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tikve\u0161",
"away_team_public_id": "0M5VyGdLEFCeRc",
"away_team_slug": "tikves",
"country_code": "MK",
"country_display_name": "Macedonia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mk.svg",
"country_id": 99,
"country_name": "Macedonia",
"fixture_id": 1551462,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Macedonia",
"home_team_display_name": "Sileks",
"home_team_id": 4331,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4331.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sileks",
"home_team_public_id": "2uZVUfInhlD86b",
"home_team_slug": "sileks",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sileks",
"league_country": "Macedonia",
"league_country_display": "Macedonia",
"league_display_name": "Primera Liga de Macedonia del Norte",
"league_id": 371,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/371.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Liga de Macedonia del Norte",
"league_public_id": "3DMS8x8pIwSYvO",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 14:00:00",
"public_id": "3toE93rLAHXzxt",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kratovo",
"venue_name": "Sileks Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4363,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.3034,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3034,
"draw": 0.2963,
"home": 0.4004
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3122
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2999,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.2963,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3034,
"draw": 0.2963,
"home": 0.4004
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2962
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4365,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.1306,
"implied_prob": 0.4004,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3034,
"draw": 0.2963,
"home": 0.4004
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3916
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.93,
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0374,
"ev": -0.1122,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0701,
"ev": -0.1556,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2242,
"alpha_yes": 0.2466,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0025,
"edge_yes": -0.0025,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0652,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0893,
"ev_yes": -0.0589,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0913,
"implied_no": 0.4535,
"implied_yes": 0.5465,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2242,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.4537,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4542
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2466,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.0913,
"implied_prob": 0.5463,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5457
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4542,
"p_final_yes": 0.5457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2185,
"alpha_under": 0.2185,
"best_over_odd": 1.89,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.83,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.84,
"edge_over": -0.0221,
"edge_under": 0.0221,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.089,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0902,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0747,
"implied_over": 0.5041,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5014,
"implied_under": 0.4959,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4986,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0042,
"ev": -0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4971
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5029
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4971,
"p_final_under": 0.5029,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sileks)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sileks at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sileks as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sileks",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sileks).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1306,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4004,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1557,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.1306,
"implied_prob": 0.4004,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sileks"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2466,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0006,
"market_prob": 0.5463,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2242,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.4537,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4542
},
"p_final": 0.5457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0913,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2466,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.0913,
"implied_prob": 0.5463,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5457
}
},
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0589,
"implied_prob": 0.5465,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0042,
"market_prob": 0.4986,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0042,
"ev": -0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4971
},
"p_final": 0.5029,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0747,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5029
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551462,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tikve\u0161",
"home": "Sileks"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1306,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4004,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1557,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551462,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T14:01:26.808854+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Liga de Macedonia del Norte — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Struga | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Bregalnica Štip | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Sileks | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Skopje | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 8 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 | Struga | 8 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 17 |
| 3 | Tikveš | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 13 |
| 4 | Vardar Skopje | 8 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 14 |
| 5 | Sileks | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Bregalnica Štip | 8 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 8 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 4 |
| 8 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 8 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Aresimi | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 |
| 10 | Skopje | 8 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
